Africa’s Vision for the Future Brendan Sobie 1 Independent51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success Analyst in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Current market conditions and challenges • Africa’s aviation market is underserved and underperforming compared to other regions • Connectivity within Africa continues to be a challenge despite multiple initiatives • Taxes and airport charges are too expensive, impeding passenger growth, economic development and tourism • Virtually all African airlines lack scale, making it difficult to compete and become profitable • African airlines need to rethink their fleets and embrace partnerships/consolidation in order for profitability and connectivity within Africa to improve 2 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa international capacity by airline: top 20 • Of the top 20, . half are foreign. Of the next 20, another 15 are foreign • Only about 25% of international capacity is within Source: CAPA, OAG Africa. Europe is Weekly capacity for Oct-2019 47%, Middle East is 22% 3 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa international capacity by airline • Ethiopian dominates with a 23% share, or nearly 30% as a group • Over 50 African airlines compete but only 20 have at least 10 daily flights • 10 foreign airlines Source: CAPA, OAG compete but account Weekly capacity for Oct-2019 for less than 5% 4 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa international capacity by airport • Addis is the leading regional hub with an 11% share • Johannesburg has 10% but is more point to point focused • 24 African airports Source: CAPA, OAG have at least 10 daily Weekly capacity for Oct-2018 flights to other African points 5 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa annual seat growth and outlook • Growth has accelerated the last Source: anna.aero, OAG four years with international seat capacity within Africa expanding by about 7% p.a. • Growth should accelerate further under the Single Africa Air Transport Market (SAATM) • Growing trade within Africa, boosted by AfFCTA is also a driver 6 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa international growth by airline • Ethiopian has expanded by far the fastest, widening the gap Source: anna.aero, OAG • The top 6 competitors account for 55% of capacity this year • The seventh largest airline in this market, ASKY, is also part of the Ethiopian Group 7 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa: vision for the future • There are about 400 international routes within Africa but less than half are served daily and only 68 are served with at least two daily flights • Africa needs more high frequency routes in order to support trade and business • International capacity within Africa and the number of routes served with at least two daily flights should triple over the next decade but this is only possible with the right policies and a more liberal environment • Effective implementation of SAATM is critical, advancing liberalization and all the related benefits after three decades of limited to no progress following YD 8 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa: top 20 international routes Source: CAPA, OAG Weekly capacity for Oct-2018 9 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa: # international routes by region East Africa Central/West Africa North Africa Southern Africa . East Africa 52 39 13 49 Central/West Africa 39 97 46 12 North Africa 13 46 22 1 Southern Africa 49 12 1 78 Source: OAG (schedules for Oct-2019) • Africa need more international routes but more critically more frequencies with the right size aircraft 10 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa: vision for the future • African airlines only have about 50 aircraft on order in the sub 150 seat category • New generation small single aisle aircraft (A220, E2) could be game changers, enabling new routes that were previously not viable and more frequencies on existing routes that are currently served with larger aircraft • Air Austral signed an order for three A220s last month and sister airline Air Madagascar also unveiled plans to lease three A220s • Smaller African airlines teaming up to place joint orders – common ownership is not a necessary prerequisite - is sensible as it results in efficiency improvements and scale that airlines cannot achieve alone 11 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Air Austral ordered three A220s in Oct-2019 . Source: Airbus 12 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” E195-E2 world tour stops in Mauritius this week Source: Embraer 13 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Intra Africa: vision for the future • New generation turboprop aircraft (such as the ATR 72-600, ATR 42-600S and Q400NG) are also needed to help renew an ageing turboprop fleet and improve domestic/short haul international connectivity • New generation long haul narrowbody aircraft (such as the A321LR, A321XLR and 737 MAX) will also help develop the intra-Africa market as they have the range to operate even the longest African routes and can generate efficiency improvements/lower unit costs for trunk routes • New generation long haul narrowbody aircraft could also open up new international routes including to South America and East Asia (a market now served entirely with widebodies) 14 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa: vision for the future • TAP Portugal two weeks ago began operating the A321LR from Lisbon to Belem, marking the first time a narrowbody Source: Flightradar24 has been used from mainland Europe to South America • With a flight time of about 7.5 hours, this route is similar to TP flight 47 on 29 October 2019 Mauritius-Singapore, Johannesburg-Cairo and Lome-Rio de Janeiro 15 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa: vision for the future • The A321XLR will be capable of even longer routes such as Maputo-Casablanca, Cairo- Bangkok, Joburg-Perth, Mauritius-Hong Kong, Luanda-Sao Paulo, Cape Town-Buenos Aires • The Americas and Asia Pacific are underserved from Africa, each accounting for less than 3% of total international seat capacity from Africa • The future for Africa aviation should focus on improving connectivity within Africa as well as to Asia, driving economic growth and efficiency as passengers rely less on backtracking via hubs in the Gulf or Europe • The future for Africa aviation should focus on building scale through mergers, acquisitions, joint ventures and joint aircraft orders 16 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa: vision for the future Air Mauritius network map • Air Mauritius has pursued a network strategy of building a bridge between Africa and Asia • Its widebody fleet consists of eight aircraft including new generation A330neos and A350s but it has only two narrowbody aircraft (A319ceos) and has no orders for new generation narrowbody or regional aircraft Source: OAG (Oct-2019) 17 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa fleet: fragmented and lacks scale Airline number of Number of narrowbodies widebodies (regionals excluded) • Only eight airlines in Africa have more than five widebody aircraft Ethiopian 58 22 South African 24 19 • Only eight have more than 15 EgyptAir 20 33 narrowbody passenger aircraft (Comair, FlySafair and Tunisair not listed) Royal Air Maroc 12 37 Kenya Airways 9 12 • No airline outside South Africa has more Air Mauritius 8 2 than 20 regional aircraft Air Algerie 8 32 • Only the top six airline groups have at TAAG 8 5 least 30 aircraft in total 18 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa’s vision for the future: Conclusions • Africa’s aviation industry is at an important juncture • There is an opportunity to advance liberalization and improve connectivity, ushering in a new era of passenger and wider economic growth • An integrated and interconnected Africa also provides an opportunity for African airlines to raise their game and improve profitability • New generation aircraft will help usher in a new era but only if African airlines embrace the technology and work together to streamline fleets, gain scale and increase efficiency 19 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” Africa’s vision for the future: Conclusions • There are still huge impediments to growth and success, some of which will be addressed in panel discussions today • A comprehensive study on intra-Africa network opportunities, the challenges impeding growth and how to achieve a better more sustainable future for all airlines would help raise awareness and support ongoing initiatives • The future outlook is bright but if we are not careful the mistakes of the past will continue to be repeated 20 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.” THANK YOU! Brendan Sobie, independent analyst [email protected] 51st AFRAA ANNUAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY | “Success in an integrated and interconnected Africa.”.