CITY OF PHOENIX WATER SERVICES DEPARTMENT DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY CONTRACT NO. 4701004863 FINAL DRAFT WHITE PAPER PREPARED FOR: CITY OF PHOENIX WATER SERVICES DEPARTMENT 200 WASHINGTON STREET PHOENIX, ARIZONA 85003 DECEMBER 24, 2019 ECONOMIC & FISCAL IMPACT MARKET ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY .................................................................................. 1 LAND‐USE MODELING AREAS .......................................................................................... 2 IMPACT FEE SERVICE AREAS ............................................................................................ 4 MARKET AREAS ............................................................................................................... 5 REDEVELOPMENT AREAS OF INTEREST ........................................................................... 7 TASK 1 – LOCAL INFORMATION GATHERING ...................................................................... 9 1.1 SOCIOECONOMIC & DEVELOPMENT DATA ..................................................................... 9 1.1.1 2016 MAG PROJECTIONS .................................................................................... 9 1.1.2 CITY OF PHOENIX GENERAL PLAN ....................................................................... 12 1.1.3 HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS ................................................. 13 1.1.4 2010 CENSUS DATA ............................................................................................. 14 1.1.5 2015 ACS BLOCK GROUP DATA ........................................................................... 15 1.1.6 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................... 17 1.1.7 COUNTY ASSESSOR DATA ................................................................................... 18 1.1.8 PERMIT/COMPLETION DATA .............................................................................. 19 1.2 COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL & INSTITUTIONAL DATA ..................................................... 20 1.2.1 RETAIL ................................................................................................................. 21 1.2.2 OFFICE ................................................................................................................. 22 1.2.3 INDUSTRIAL ......................................................................................................... 23 1.3 RESIDENTIAL TRENDS ...................................................................................................... 24 1.3.1 MULTI‐FAMILY RENTAL TRENDS ......................................................................... 24 1.3.2 HOME OWNERSHIP TRENDS ............................................................................... 24 1.3.3 INDICATORS OF DISTRESS ................................................................................... 25 1.4 REDEVELOPMENT AREAS OF INTEREST ........................................................................... 26 1.4.1 ASU WEST ............................................................................................................ 27 1.4.2 METROCENTER .................................................................................................... 28 1.4.3 NORTH 19TH AVENUE .......................................................................................... 29 1.4.4 PARADISE VALLEY MALL ...................................................................................... 30 1.4.5 SOLANO ............................................................................................................... 31 1.4.6 CAMELBACK EAST ............................................................................................... 32 1.4.7 CAMELBACK WEST .............................................................................................. 33 1.4.8 UPTOWN ............................................................................................................. 34 1.4.9 MIDTOWN ........................................................................................................... 35 1.4.10 EASTLAKE‐GARFIELD ........................................................................................... 36 1.4.11 44TH STREET ......................................................................................................... 37 1.4.12 I‐10 WEST ............................................................................................................ 38 1.4.13 CAPITAL MALL ..................................................................................................... 39 1.4.14 DOWNTOWN ....................................................................................................... 40 1.4.15 GATEWAY ............................................................................................................ 41 1.4.16 SOUTH CENTRAL ................................................................................................. 42 i TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) 1.5 REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS .................................................... 44 1.5.1 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ....................................................................................... 44 1.5.1.1 POPULATION BY AGE .............................................................................. 44 1.5.1.2 FERTILITY RATES...................................................................................... 48 1.5.1.3 MIGRATION PATTERNS ........................................................................... 49 1.5.1.4 SEASONAL AND RETIREE POPULATION .................................................. 51 1.5.2 ECONOMIC TRENDS .............................................................................................. 53 1.5.2.1 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY .................................................................. 53 1.5.2.2 EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION ............................................................. 56 1.5.3 WORKFORCE TRENDS ........................................................................................... 60 1.5.3.1 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES .................................................... 60 1.5.3.2 WORK‐AT‐HOME TRENDS ....................................................................... 62 1.5.3.3 SUPER COMMUTING .............................................................................. 64 1.5.4 POPULATION PROJECTION COMPARISON ........................................................... 65 TASK 2 – GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ................................................................... 69 2.1 COUNTY AND CITY SOCIOECONOMIC CONTROL TOTALS ............................................... 69 2.1.1 COUNTY POPULATION .......................................................................................... 69 2.1.2 COUNTY EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................ 69 2.1.2.1 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY .................................................................. 70 2.1.2.2 EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION ............................................................. 72 2.1.2.3 EMPLOYMENT BY LAND‐USE .................................................................. 74 2.1.3 CITY POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ............................................... 77 2.1.3.1 SUB‐COUNTY DEVELOPMENT ................................................................. 77 2.1.3.2 SUB‐CITY RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT .................................................. 80 2.1.3.3 SUB‐CITY EMPLOYMENT CHANGES ........................................................ 83 2.2 DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS............................................................ 83 2.2.1 LAND‐USE CATEGORIES ........................................................................................ 83 2.2.2 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................... 86 2.2.2.1 SINGLE FAMILY ....................................................................................... 86 2.2.2.2 MUTLI‐FAMILY ........................................................................................ 87 2.2.3 COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT ...................... 87 2.2.3.1 RETAIL ..................................................................................................... 87 2.2.3.2 OFFICE ..................................................................................................... 88 2.2.3.3 INDUSTRIAL ............................................................................................. 89 2.2.3.4 HOTEL ..................................................................................................... 89 2.2.3.5 HEALTH CARE .......................................................................................... 90 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) 2.3 MASTER PLANNING AREA LAND‐USE ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................... 91 2.3.1 ESTRELLA ............................................................................................................. 92 2.3.2 LAVEEN ................................................................................................................ 93 2.3.3 NORTHEAST ......................................................................................................... 96 2.3.4 NORTHWEST ......................................................................................................