LANDSCAPE-SCALE CONSERVATION PLANNING AND WILDLIFE MONITORING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA A DISSCERTATIONS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Peter Guild Cutter IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Dr. J.L. David Smith September 2014 Peter Guild Cutter 2014 PREFACE This collection of papers focuses on monitoring and conservation planning in two large landscapes: Thailand’s Western Forest Complex and the country of Cambodia. Both landscapes present planners with complex challenges including how to meet the current and future needs of human populations, how to conserve biodiversity, and how to maintain ecosystem stability over very long periods of time. These challenges bring into focus both human values and the range of technologies and tools that have been developed to assist decision-makers in the face of uncertainty and complex, multi-variable systems. Thailand’s Western Forest Complex (Prayurasiddhi et al.) is an approximately 17,000 Km2 area shared by the world’s second largest population of tigers and a growing human population. It is Southeast Asia’s largest protected wilderness and in many ways, the geographic crossroads of historic and modern tiger distribution. Modernization has dramatically altered Thailand’s landscape—especially over the last 60 years. Like most neighbors in the region, the country has struggled with the challenge of setting conservation policy and making natural resource management decisions based on what is often a limited amount of baseline data and constantly changing political and economic conditions. As in many parts of the world, the 20th century saw the extinction of species that in some cases were doomed before declines in populations were even documented. A current priority for managers in this area is developing and deploying survey and monitoring techniques that are both affordable and capable of delivering data relevant to the management of the regions tigers and the habitat they depend on. In Chapter 1, I develop predictive models of tiger and tiger prey distribution as a means of providing needed focus for limited survey resources. In Chapter 2, I evaluate both practical and statistical aspects of potential survey and monitoring strategies for tigers at the landscape level. Chapters 3-5 relate to a national-level systematic conservation planning process that was initiated in 2004. I evaluate the selection of planning tools and techniques in light of Cambodia’s unique conservation and socio-economic context and review the planning process as a means of developing an adaptive framework for ongoing conservation planning and implementation. i Although the chapters are interrelated, I have prepared each as a stand-alone manuscript for submission to appropriate peer-reviewed scientific journals. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work would not have been possible without the significant contributions and support of numerous people. My committee members all contributed expertise, guidance, and extraordinary amounts of patience during what turned out to be a long process of collecting, analyzing and writing up my data. In particular, Dave Smith provided guidance, friendship, and continuous support in both the field and the laboratory and introduced me to most of the other people who have made this work a success. Peter Jordan and Paul Bolstad provided much experienced review and their encouragement led to great improvements in model development and validation. Steve Polasky’s inputs and advice in the use of spatial planning approaches were invaluable in completing the Cambodia analysis in particular. Francie Cuthbert was a consistent source of support and encouragement in both the US and in Asia throughout the project. Sean Ahearn from Hunter College provided valuable inputs at several stages, joined me in the field to assist in data collection protocols, and provided thoughtful comments on the final dissertation. Todd Arnold patiently shared his statistical, modeling and general wildlife ecology expertise with me; Chapter 2 would simply not have been possible without his valuable suggestions and guidance. Dr. Schwann Tunhikorn provided official support and encouragement at several critical junctures in the project. Mark Graham provided enthusiasm, a pragmatic working style, and indispensable guidance during the early part of the investigation. His memory was a constant source of inspiration to the project team even after his tragic death in 1999. Mr. Chachawan Pitdamkham, Chair of the Royal Forest Department’s Western Forest Complex Management Committee (WEFCOM) was supportive in many ways, from providing transportation in a pinch to introducing the project to many of the protected area leadership and staff with whom we worked. Saksit Simcharoen introduced me to the tiger population in the Western Forest Complex and provided expert knowledge, encouragement, and official support throughout the project. Achara Petdee was generous with both her time and with background data on the study area. Pornchai Pattumratanathan was a great friend and was generous with both his time and his expertise with tigers, four-wheel drive trucks, and numerous other relevant issues. iii Theerapat Prayurasiddhi has been a both a friend and professional colleague throughout this work providing ecological insights into the ecology of the Western Forest Complex and providing unparalleled perspective on conservation issues in Thailand. Passanan Cutter contributed a truly unique and invaluable set of skills, an unflinchingly positive attitude in her role as research assistant and interview coordinator. Other WEFCOM staff including Anuk Patanawiboon, Yongyut Trisurat, Sompoad Maneerat and others provided invaluable logistical support and important background information. Local residents living in and around the study area were, without exception, gracious hosts during our field surveys and selflessly contributed everything from a comfortable place to spend the night to unparalleled knowledge and appreciation of a wilderness that most find mystifying if not intimidating. Most of the fieldwork would have been impossible without the enthusiastic assistance of numerous rangers from the Department of National Park, Wildlife, and Plant Conservation who were quick to pick up new skills and eager to apply them in the field. The staff of the Department of National Park, Wildlife, and Plant Conservation’s Forest Boundary Survey Division contributed their time and expertise in many ways to help create and process much of the GIS data used during the course of the project. In particular, I would like to thank Mr. Somporn Tanhan for his kind support and assistance in gathering much of the geographic information necessary for the analysis. This project was made possible through funds from a number of sources. The Save the Tiger Fund provided initial funds and John Seidensticker, Mahendra Shresta, and others and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation have been remarkably supportive and patient throughout the term of the project. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services Tiger and Rhino Fund provided important funding and Fred Bagley was gracious to personally travel to Thailand to visit with me and other members of the project team. Much of the Cambodia analysis builds on work that I carried out while serving working with the Cambodia Ministry of Envirionment and the Biodiversity and Protected Area Management Project. In particular, Klaus Schmitt and David Ashwell provided important discussion and inputs to this part of the analysis and I am very grateful for their inputs. iv Meas Sophal from the Ministry of Environment also provided a tremendous amount of support and encouragement. I would not have been able to survive many cold months in Minnesota were it not for the friendship, inspiration, and intellectual support I received from other students and staff in the Conservation Biology Graduate Program at UMN. In particular, I would like to thank Anup Joshi, Mahendra Shresta, Rob Steinmetz, Adam Barlow, Bhim Gurung, Lynne Baker, and Paul Kapfer. I would like to thank my parents, Richard and Jane Cutter who were both sources of patient support through this program. Many other contributors, too numerous to list here, made the project possible and we would like to thank them all for their dedication and interest in establishing an important foundation for future surveys and monitoring efforts in the area. v TABLE OF CONTENTS List of figures .................................................................................................................. x List of Tables ................................................................................................................ xiv Chapter 1. Landscape Scale Tiger and Tiger Habitat Patterns: Evaluating Models for Western Thailand ...................................................................................... 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Study Area......................................................................................................................................... 5 Methods .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Defining Survey Units .............................................................................................................. 8 Documenting