World Energy Scenarios 2019 Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040 In Collaboration with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute ABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL ABOUT THE REPORT The World Energy Council is the principal impartial Scenarios provide an inclusive and strategic framework network of energy leaders and practitioners promoting that enables big-picture thinking. They are designed an affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive to be used as a set to explore and navigate what might energy system for the greatest benefit of all. happen and support a better-quality global strategic dialogue on the future of energy systems. Formed in 1923, the Council is the UN-accredited global energy body, representing the entire energy spectrum, In 2016, the World Energy Council and its scenarios with over 3,000 member organisations in over 90 partners, Accenture Strategy Energy and the Paul countries, drawn from governments, private and state Scherrer Institute, introduced the World Energy corporations, academia, NGOs and energy stakeholders. Scenarios which explore three plausible pathways for We inform global, regional and national energy strategies energy transition to 2060. by hosting high-level events including the World Energy Over the last three years this scenario framework has Congress and publishing authoritative studies, and work been validated by input from the Council’s extensive through our extensive member network to facilitate the energy expert member community. The three scenarios world’s energy policy dialogue. are perceived to be more relevant than ever. Further details at www.worldenergy.org In this scenarios refresh, the Council has adopted a and @WECouncil medium-term time horizon of 2040 and focused on the Published by the World Energy Council 2019 implications of broader and disruptive innovation for the energy industry. Copyright © 2019 World Energy Council. All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or The report, “Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040,” reproduced as long as the following citation is included presents three global storylines to 2040, with supporting on each copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the systems thinking maps, comparative analysis and regional World Energy Council’ summaries. It includes a discussion of new insights, reflecting deeper shifts in the energy system innovation World Energy Council landscape, and provides a broader view on “how to use” Registered in England and Wales the scenarios. No. 4184478 Refreshed scenarios were informed by insights from VAT Reg. No. GB 123 3802 48 more than 100 deep-dive leadership interviews across Registered Office 14 themes, regional workshops and wide experts’ 62–64 Cornhill engagements. London EC3V 3NH United Kingdom Produced in collaboration with: Accenture Strategy as Project Partner, Scenarios Paul Scherrer Institute as Project Partner, Scenarios: Energy Modelling and Scenario Quantification PREFACE Welcome to the new and different futures of energy and an opportunity to better prepare for the challenges ahead! The World Energy Council has been developing and using World Energy Scenarios for over a decade to support its global member network of energy leaders, to clarify complexity, and to realise new oppor- tunities for successfully managing global energy transition. Since introducing the World Energy Scenarios framework in 2016, our extensive global horizon scan- ning has detected signals in all three of our archetype scenarios – Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock – in all regions of the world. We have benchmarked the Council’s scenarios with the energy future outlooks, scenarios, and visions that have been produced by a well-respected peer group, which includes global energy companies and international institutions. Importantly, we continue to invest in effective use. We are supporting our members and their stake- holders in their use of the World Energy Scenarios, recognising that the added value of a scenari- os-based leadership dialogue is different from simply discussing written reports. We have developed a variety of application processes, with an emphasis on interactive experiences to help governments and businesses use World Energy Scenarios in the drive to impact. As a result, we are confident in providing assurances of the quality, relevance, and usefulness of this set of World Energy Scenarios to 2040. This latest set of scenario narratives maintains the existing scenario framework and describes three potential pathways for energy system transition to 2040. At the request of our members we have focused these scenarios on helping energy leaders to grapple with the new realities of a disruptive landscape of innovation in energy transition, which is emerging faster and from beyond the energy sector. In addition to the three scenario stories, there is a detailed comparative analysis of the implications for the energy system, eight regional perspectives, and a set of supporting energy systems dynamics maps. We encourage energy leaders to resist the temptation to flick directly to the numbers section and, instead, to immerse themselves in the stories in order to make better sense of the illustrative quantification. In the journey of The Grand Transition, we have entered a new energy era, which promises clean energy abundance and the benefits of sustainable energy for all. It is a promise that still needs to be met. In order to succeed, we need to avoid the risk of fragmentation of bottom-up innovation and top-down ideological polarisation, which is characterising global energy dialogues. These scenarios are a tool to help guide leadership decisions through rapidly changing energy realities and a platform to realise the importance and benefits of a collaborative approach by energy transition leaders, within and beyond the energy sector. Whatever your role – government minister, investor, technologist, entrepreneur, business leader, major resource holder, city mayor, policy maker/shaper, energy expert, or interested observer – we invite you to join us in using and further developing these scenarios in the drive to thrive in a successful world-wide energy system transition. Younghoon David Kim Christoph Frei Chair, World Energy Council Secretary General, World Energy Council 1 WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS | 2019 FOREWORD We have entered the age of disruptions. Technological innovations, climate change and more tense geopolitics are reshaping the world of energy. The World Energy Scenarios provide the perfect tool for assessing these macro-uncertainties and crafting a strategic response, whether you are an energy leader, policy maker or innovator. Following an intensive review of signals a decision was made to maintain the World Energy Scenarios 2016 framework, focus on medium-term pathways to 2040 and elaborate on regional developments. The three 2019 scenarios are, as before: • Modern Jazz. A market-led, innovative, and digitally disrupted world with a faster paced and more uneven economic growth. • Unfinished Symphony. A strong, coordinated, policy-led world, with long-term planning and united global action to address connected challenges, particularly a low-carbon future • Hard Rock. A fragmented world with inward looking policies, lower growth and less global cooperation. These scenarios were developed by World Energy Council members and produced with our collabora- tors, Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute. The process included 100 expert interviews and several workshops building the scenario narratives, both in London and other locations. We offer thanks to those Member Committees that hosted workshops in France, Estonia, Germany and UAE; and to those who attended most of the workshops: Andreia Severiano, Angel Landa Ugarte, Burkhard von Kienitz, Christoph Menzel, François Cattier, François Dassa, Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Jean-Eudes Moncomble, John M. Roberts, Julian Jansen, Priit Mändmaa, Rafael Cayuela, Ryo Fukushima, Stefan Gheorghe, and Wolfgang Ernst. The ability to incorporate the wide range of perspectives from multiple sources was only possible thanks to a talented core team. I would like to thank those who have contributed to this project. This includes from Accenture Strategy, Albert Howard, James Collins, Muqsit Ashraf and Richard Kho whose critical analyses have enhanced the report; from the Paul Scherrer Institute, Tom Kober, Martin Densing and Evangelos Panos, who led the modelling, and from the World Energy Council’s Secretariat, Angela Wilkinson and Anastasia Belostotskaya, whose leadership and coordination was central to the success of the project; and Betty Sue Flowers, our report editor. The launch of the World Energy Scenarios in Abu Dhabi is a platform for possible applications across the world. Many possible uses of scenarios are outlined in the report and are recommended for a broad range of users. What I have learned from this process is: • The need to get a better understanding of combinatorial disruptions, and the promise of the “constellation of disruptions” tool. • The sharply different formulation of regional challenges across the world that questions our desire to work together to address global concerns. • There are no certainties about the exact nature and form of the energy transition. We need inspired leadership and the courage to create the energy world we need and want. Finally, I take full responsibility for any omissions or inaccuracies in the report. Ged Davis - Executive Chair, World Energy Scenarios, World Energy Council