(Defra project code GA0204) A climate change risk assessment for Scotland January 2012 Contractors: HR Wallingford AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd (formerly Entec UK Ltd) The Met Office Collingwood Environmental Planning Alexander Ballard Ltd Paul Watkiss Associates Metroeconomica Statement of use: See full statement of use on Page iv. Keywords: Scotland, climate change, risk assessment Research contractor: HR Wallingford Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BA Tel: +44(0)1491 835381 (For contractor quality control purposes this report is also numbered EX6517) Defra project officer: Scottish Government project officer: Dominic Rowland Jody Fleck Defra contact details: Scottish Government contact details: Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Climate Change Division Department for Environment, Food and The Scottish Government Rural Affairs (Defra) Area 1-G North Area 3A Victoria Quay Nobel House Edinburgh 17 Smith Square EH6 6QQ London SW1P 3JR Tel: 020 7238 3000 Tel: 0131 244 5490 www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation www.scotland.gov.uk/ climatechangeadaptation Document History: Date Release Prepared Notes 25/02/11 1.0 HR Wallingford First release 29/03/11 2.0 HR Wallingford Revised in response to review comments received. 15/04/11 3.0 HR Wallingford Revised in response to review comments received on Release 2.0. 28/04/11 3.1 HR Wallingford Revised in response to further comments received 07/10/11 4.0 HR Wallingford Updated with new analysis work and revised based on further comments received 09/12/11 5.0 HR Wallingford Revised in response to comments on R4 20/01/12 6.0 HR Wallingford Final release 24/01/12 7.0 HR Wallingford Minor edits 23/04/12 8.0 HR Wallingford Minor edits ii Climate Change Risk Assessment For Scotland Amended 23rd April 2012 from the version published on 25th January 2012. Amendments to the version published on 25th January 2012 The following corrections have been made: Page 101: Milk production figures have been corrected. © Crown copyright 2012 You may use and re-use the information featured in this document/publication (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/open-government- licence.htm Any email enquiries regarding the use and re-use of this information resource should be sent to: [email protected]. Alternatively write to The Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 4DU. Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum. This report is available online at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/ Climate Change Risk Assessment For Scotland iii Statement of Use This report presents the findings of an assessment of climate change risks for Scotland, which has been completed as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). Before reading this report it is important to understand the process of evidence gathering for the CCRA. The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has compared over 100 risks (prioritised from an initial list of over 700) from a number of disparate sectors based on the magnitude of the consequences and confidence in the evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is the use of a consistent method and set of climate projections to look at current and future threats and opportunities. The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages involving expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable, repeatable methodology that is not dependent on changes in long term plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA. The results, with the exception of population growth where this is relevant, do not include societal change in assessing future risks, either from non-climate related change, for example economic growth, or developments in new technologies; or future responses to climate risks such as future Government policies or private adaptation investment plans. Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust ‘baseline’ against which the effects of different plans and policies can be more easily assessed. However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essential to consider that Government and key organisations are already taking action in many areas to minimise climate change risks and these interventions need to be considered when assessing where further action may be best directed or needed. Initially, eleven ‘sectors’ were chosen from which to gather evidence: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Built Environment, Business/Industry/Services, Energy, Forestry, Floods and Coastal Erosion, Health, Marine and Fisheries, Transport and Water. A review was undertaken to identify the range of climate risks within each sector. The review was followed by a selection process that included sector workshops to identify the most important risks (or opportunities) within the sector. Approximately 10% of the total number of risks (or opportunities) across all sectors were selected for more detailed consideration and analysis as part of the UK-wide assessment. The risk assessment used UKCP09 climate projections to assess future changes to these selected sector risks. Risks were, in general, analysed using single climate variables, for example temperature. A final Evidence Report draws together information from the eleven sectors (as well as other evidence streams) to provide an overview of risks from climate change to the UK. This report for Scotland provides a similar overview of risks from climate change to Scotland. The most important risks (or opportunities) for the UK were reviewed with Scottish stakeholders to determine which were important for Scotland. This resulted in some risks being dropped from the list and others being added. Where risks have been added, some of these have been analysed in detail. Those that have not been analysed in detail are discussed within the broader context of risks from climate change to Scotland. iv Climate Change Risk Assessment For Scotland Neither this report nor the Evidence Report aims to provide an in depth, quantitative analysis of risk within any particular sector. Where detailed analysis is presented using large national or regional datasets, the objective is solely to build a consistent picture of risk for the UK, including Scotland, and allow for some comparison between disparate risks and regional/national differences. The results presented here should not be used by the reader for re-analysis or interpretation at a local or site-specific scale. In addition, as most risks were analysed using single climate variables, the analysis may be over-simplified in cases where the consequence of climate change is caused by more than one climate variable (for example, higher summer temperatures combined with reduced summer precipitation). Climate Change Risk Assessment For Scotland v vi Climate Change Risk Assessment For Scotland Executive summary The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) presents the latest evidence on the risks and opportunities of climate change for the UK to 2100. For the first time, it provides a national overview of potential risks based primarily on the UK Climate Projections, which were published in 2009. Its findings, particularly related to those risks that require early action, will inform the development of adaptation plans by the UK Government and the Devolved Administrations. This is the CCRA report for Scotland and provides evidence to support the Scottish Government’s climate change adaptation programme. It describes and, where possible, quantifies the risks from climate change facing Scotland up until 2100. It is one of a number of reports that have been produced as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). The CCRA has analysed those impacts and consequences that were considered to be the most important for the UK. A list of the most important impacts and consequences for Scotland has also been developed through a process of consultation with stakeholders. This differs from the UK list, as it takes account of particular features and issues relevant to Scotland. It is these most important impacts and consequences for Scotland that form the basis of this report. Discussion of these builds on the results from the analysis undertaken for the UK with additional information specifically for Scotland. This report does not attempt to provide a comprehensive discussion of all potential impacts for Scotland, nor does it attempt to identify potential adaptation measures or associated policy for Scotland. The findings in this report are presented for a range of possible future scenarios and indicate the confidence in the results. Areas where evidence gaps have been identified, either on a UK or more specific Scottish basis have also been identified. The assessment in this report is based primarily on the UK Climate Projections which were published in 2009 (UKCP09). UKCP09 provides projections of future climate for many overlapping time periods from the present to 2100. This assessment focused on three time periods, namely the 2020s (2010 to 2039), 2050s (2040 to 2069) and 2080s (2070 to 2099). The projections provide the most up to date evidence of potential changes in climate for Scotland but it is important to recognise the limits of our current understanding and relative confidence related to changes in different climate variables (Box ES1). Box ES1 How confident are we about future climate risks for the UK? Climate monitoring, climate modelling and risk assessment methods have improved significantly over the last two decades but there are still limits to our understanding of future climate risks. For example we do not know how fast greenhouse gas emissions will rise, how great the cooling effects are of other atmospheric pollutants or how quickly the ice caps may melt. These and other uncertainties result in a wide range of possible rates of warming and sea level rise. Projecting changes in climate for specific regions is still a significant challenge for the current generation of climate models.