Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. FHWA/TX-09/0-5667-1 Accession No. 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date An Examination of Land Use Models, Emphasizing UrbanSim, October 31, 2008 TELUM, and Suitability Analysis 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Kara Kockelman, Jennifer Duthie, Siva Karthik Kakaraparthi, 0-5667-1 Bin (Brenda) Zhou, Ardeshir Anjomani, Sruti Marepally, and Krishna Priya Kunapareddychinna 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Center for Transportation Research 11. Contract or Grant No. The University of Texas at Austin 0-5667 3208 Red River, Suite 200 Austin, TX 78705-2650 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Texas Department of Transportation Technical Report Research and Technology Implementation Office September 2006-August 2008 P.O. Box 5080 Austin, TX 78763-5080 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 15. Supplementary Notes Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. 16. Abstract This work provides integrated transportation land use modeling guidance to practitioners in Texas regions of all sizes. The research team synthesized existing land use modeling experiences from MPOs across the country, examined the compatibility of TELUM’s and UrbanSim’s requirements with existing data sets, integrated both UrbanSim and a gravity-based land use modeling with an existing travel demand model (TDM), and examined the results of Waco and Austin land use model runs (with and without transportation and land use policies in place). A simpler, GIS-based land use suitability analysis was also performed, for Waco, to demonstrate the potential value of such approaches. Finally, the knowledge gained from this research project was disseminated to practicing planners through a Resource Manual/Guidebook and two workshops. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Land use modeling, Integrated transportation-land use No restrictions. This document is available to the modeling, Suitability analysis, Land use planning and public through the National Technical Information policy Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161; www.ntis.gov. 19. Security Classif. (of report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 224 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized An Examination of Land Use Models, Emphasizing UrbanSim, TELUM, and Suitability Analysis Kara Kockelman Jennifer Duthie Siva Karthik Kakaraparthi Bin (Brenda) Zhou Ardeshir Anjomani Sruti Marepally Krishna Priya Kunapareddychinna CTR Technical Report: 0-5667-1 Report Date: August 31, 2008 Project: 0-5667 Project Title: Analysis and Guidelines for Establishing Unified Urban Land-Use and Transportation System Planning Framework and Procedures Sponsoring Agency: Texas Department of Transportation Performing Agency: Center for Transportation Research at The University of Texas at Austin Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. Center for Transportation Research The University of Texas at Austin 3208 Red River Austin, TX 78705 www.utexas.edu/research/ctr Copyright (c) 2008 Center for Transportation Research The University of Texas at Austin All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America Disclaimers Author's Disclaimer: The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official view or policies of the Federal Highway Administration or the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Patent Disclaimer: There was no invention or discovery conceived or first actually reduced to practice in the course of or under this contract, including any art, method, process, machine manufacture, design or composition of matter, or any new useful improvement thereof, or any variety of plant, which is or may be patentable under the patent laws of the United States of America or any foreign country. Notice: The United States Government and the State of Texas do not endorse products or manufacturers. If trade or manufacturers' names appear herein, it is solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report. Engineering Disclaimer NOT INTENDED FOR CONSTRUCTION, BIDDING, OR PERMIT PURPOSES. Project Engineer: Kara M. Kockelman Professional Engineer License State and Number: Texas # 93443 P. E. Designation: Research Supervisor Acknowledgments The authors express appreciation to our Project Director, TxDOT’s Janie Temple, Project Coordinator Jack Foster, and Project Advisor Eduardo Calvo. Thanks also go to those at TxDOT’s Research and Technology Implementation office: Duncan Stewart (RMC 2 Research Engineer), and Sylvia Medina and Loretta Brown (RMC 2 Contract Managers for this project). The research team appreciates the contributions of Caliper Corporation’s Dr. Howard Slavin, Margaret Holmes, and Jian Zhang, for the use of TransCAD software and technical support. Finally, we appreciate Houston-Galveston Area Council’s Dmitri Messen’s and the University of Washington’s Hana Ševčíková’s assistance in running UrbanSim, via helpful email correspondence. Products Products associated with this project include the provision of land use modeling workshops for TxDOT engineers and MPO planners and a Guidebook/ Resource handbook for guidance in the land use forecasting process. The Part I case-study workshop was held May 27, 2008 in Houston (in conjunction with TxDOT’s Transportation Planning Conference) with TxDOT staff, consultants, and MPOs from various regions as participants (47 persons total). The workshop described the value of land use models (LUMs) in transportation planning and the different methodologies that can be used to implement such LUMs. Project PMC members Janie Temple and Duncan Stewart were in attendance. The Part II hands-on workshop was held on Tuesday, July 29, 2008 in Austin, at TxDOT's Riverside Drive Annex. This workshop concentrated on the demonstration and practical application of three land use models. Attendees worked with data in a TransCAD tutorial, in order to forecast land use change using gravity-based land use modeling commands. Demonstrations of Suitability Analysis using ArcGIS tools (with Waco data) and UrbanSim model operations and results (with Austin data) were also provided. The workshop was attended by 20 participants, including TxDOT district personnel, MPO staff members, and transportation consultants. Duncan Stewart and Janie Temple were in attendance. The Guidebook is not contained in this report, and was delivered separately to RTI on August 31, 2008. Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 2. Synthesis of Existing Land Use Modeling Experiences .......................................... 3 2.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Each Approach for Anticipating Land Use Future .....................................................................................................................................3 2.2 Summary of Survey Responses .............................................................................................4 Chapter 3. Investigation of Land Use Model Requirements and Compatibility with Existing TxDOT Data and Methods ................................................................................ 7 3.1 Existing Agency Data and Methods ......................................................................................9 3.1.1 UrbanSim ..................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 PECAS ......................................................................................................................... 13 3.1.3 TELUM ........................................................................................................................ 14 3.1.4 TRANUS ...................................................................................................................... 15 3.1.5 Linking to a Model of Travel Demand ........................................................................ 17 Chapter 4. Review of Suitability Models and their Potential Contribution .......................... 19 4.1 The Role of Land Suitability Analysis in Land Use/Transportation Modeling ...................19 4.1.1 Suitability Analysis ...................................................................................................... 20 4.1.2 Review of Available Software and Applied Processes ................................................ 21 4.2 Results of Waco, Texas Comparisons using SA Methods ...................................................28 4.2.1 Suitability Analysis ...................................................................................................... 29 4.2.2 Use of ArcGIS .............................................................................................................. 29 4.2.3 Part (a): Suitability Analysis as a Complement to Integrated Modeling ..................... 30 4.2.4 Part (b): SA as for Allocation of Projected Population and Employment ................... 32 4.2.5 Data Collection ...........................................................................................................