DRAFT REPORT ELECTRICITY PRICING INQUIRY 3 February 2016 © Queensland Productivity Commission 2016 The Queensland Productivity Commission supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of information. However, copyright protects this document. The Queensland Productivity Commission has no objection to this material being reproduced, made available online or electronically but only if it is recognised as the owner of the copyright and this material remains unaltered. Table of Contents SUBMISSIONS CLOSING DATE FOR SUBMISSIONS: 11 MARCH 2016 Public consultation is an important element of the Queensland Productivity Commission’s (QPC) inquiry process. Submissions are invited from interested parties on electricity prices in Queensland. The QPC will take account of all submissions received by the due date. Submissions, comments or inquiries regarding this paper should be directed to: Queensland Productivity Commission PO Box 12112 George St QLD 4003 Tel (07) 3015 0111 Fax (07) 3015 5199 http://www.qpc.qld.gov.au/inquiries/electricity-pricing/ CONFIDENTIALITY In the interests of transparency and to promote informed discussion, the QPC would prefer submissions to be made publicly available wherever this is reasonable. However, if a submission contains genuinely confidential material, the person making a submission should claim confidentiality in respect of the document (or any part of the document). Claims for confidentiality should be clearly noted on the front page of the submission and the relevant sections of the submission should be marked as confidential, so that the remainder of the document can be made publicly available. It would also be appreciated if two copies of the submission (i.e. the complete version and another excising confidential information) could be provided. Where it is unclear why a submission has been marked confidential, the status of the submission will be discussed with the person making the submission. While the QPC will endeavour to identify and protect material claimed as confidential as well as exempt information and information disclosure which would be contrary to the public interest (within the meaning of the Right to Information Act 2009 (RTI Act)), it cannot guarantee that submissions will not be made publicly available. Queensland Productivity Commission ELECTRICITY PRICING INQUIRY iii Table of Contents Queensland Productivity Commission ELECTRICITY PRICING INQUIRY iv Table of Contents Table of Contents SUBMISSIONS III Closing date for submissions: 11 March 2016 iii Confidentiality iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VIII Purpose of the Inquiry viii Overview of draft findings and recommendations ix Next steps xiii DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS XIV THE ROLE OF THE QPC XIX ABOUT THE ELECTRICITY PRICE INQUIRY XX Our approach xx Next steps xxiii 1 PRICE AND PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY 2 1.1 The role of electricity within the economy 3 1.2 Historical electricity prices 6 1.3 Effect of supply chain productivity on prices 8 1.4 Future electricity pricing projections 12 2 SUPPLY CHAIN PRODUCTIVITY — A SECTOR IN TRANSFORMATION 22 2.1 A sector in transformation 23 3 GENERATION 37 3.1 Our approach 38 3.2 Context 39 3.3 Market structure and wholesale electricity prices 40 3.4 Election commitment — merger of the state-owned generators 43 3.5 Generator rebidding 47 3.6 Renewable generation 52 3.7 Election commitment — 50 per cent renewable energy target 53 3.8 Election commitment — One million solar rooftops 60 4 NETWORKS 62 4.1 Context 63 4.2 Future outlook and issues for network businesses 67 4.3 Merger of the state-owned network businesses 69 4.4 Focus of future regulatory reform 72 4.5 Network tariff reform 74 4.6 Other issues 82 5 SOLAR BONUS SCHEME 84 Queensland Productivity Commission ELECTRICITY PRICING INQUIRY v Table of Contents 5.1 Context 85 5.2 Impact of SBS on electricity prices 86 5.3 Forecast SBS costs 88 5.4 Options to reduce SBS costs for electricity prices 89 6 RETAIL MARKETS AND CONSUMERS 94 6.2 Customer participation in the retail electricity market 96 6.3 Roles in influencing consumer behaviour 99 7 SHAREHOLDER ISSUES 105 7.1 Competing objectives in the roles and responsibilities of the Government 106 7.2 Role of the Government as shareholder 108 8 DEREGULATION IN SEQ 115 8.1 Our approach 116 8.2 Reform in retail price regulation 117 8.3 Benefits of deregulation 119 8.4 Potential risks for deregulation 128 8.5 Market monitoring and reporting 133 8.6 Customer protection arrangements 142 9 OPTIONS FOR INCREASING RETAIL COMPETITION IN REGIONAL QUEENSLAND 147 9.1 What is the Uniform Tariff Policy? 149 9.2 Current UTP arrangements in Queensland 155 9.3 Options for increasing retail competition while maintaining a UTP 160 9.4 Preparing Ergon Energy (Retail) for regional competition 174 9.5 Other issues impacting on competition in regional Queensland 177 10 RURAL AND REGIONAL INDUSTRIES—TRANSITIONAL AND OBSOLETE TARIFFS 179 10.1 Our approach 180 10.2 Transitional and obsolete tariffs 180 10.3 Assessment of individual transitional and obsolete tariffs 185 10.4 Promoting the best choice of tariff 192 11 ROLE OF LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS 199 11.1 Our approach 200 11.2 An emerging issue 200 11.3 Feasibility of involvement in supply electricity 201 11.4 Barriers to alternative supply arrangements 202 11.5 Other issues to consider 204 11.6 Isolated networks 205 12 ELECTRICITY CONCESSIONS FRAMEWORK 209 12.1 Our approach 211 12.2 Context 211 12.3 Challenges with the existing concessions framework 216 12.4 Eligibility for Queensland electricity concessions 221 Queensland Productivity Commission ELECTRICITY PRICING INQUIRY vi Table of Contents 12.5 Structure of electricity rebates and concessions 225 12.6 Other considerations 230 12.7 Support for a national concessions framework 234 13 IMPACTS OF NETWORK TARIFF REFORM AND IMPEDIMENTS TO DEMAND-SIDE PARTICIPATION 237 13.1 Our approach 238 13.2 Network tariff reform 239 13.3 Current understanding of customer vulnerability to tariff reforms 241 13.4 Improving understanding of customer impacts 242 13.5 Network prices versus retail packages 244 13.6 The role for demand-side responses 245 GLOSSARY 253 APPENDIX A : TERMS OF REFERENCE 257 APPENDIX B : CONSULTATION 260 Submissions 260 Consultations 262 Stakeholder Reference Group 265 APPENDIX C : SAMPLE OF INTERNATIONAL CONCESSIONS 266 BIBLIOGRAPHY 268 Queensland Productivity Commission ELECTRICITY PRICING INQUIRY vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since 2006–07 Queensland’s electricity prices have increased in real terms by 87 per cent. Queensland’s electricity price increases reflects the experience across Australia Queensland’s average electricity prices are still amongst the lowest of the major states. Queensland’s electricity price increases have largely been driven by escalating network costs, although the costs of the Solar Bonus Scheme (SBS) and the Australian Government’s Renewable Energy Target (RET) have also played a role. Over $22 billion was spent on electricity network infrastructure between 2005–06 and 2014–15 to meet higher reliability standards and to accommodate increasing peak demand, which has led to concerns that there has been over-capitalisation of the network infrastructure. The challenge now for the electricity sector is to find ways to better use this infrastructure. Business and residential electricity consumers have responded to increased prices, through energy efficiency, demand management and the installation of solar PV. As a result average electricity demand is falling, which presents challenges for electricity prices with costs being spread across a smaller demand base. At the same time, Queensland’s peak electricity demand continues to grow, although not at the rates experienced in the late 2000s. It is becoming evident that changes are needed to tariff structures to make network pricing more equitable and to avoid building network infrastructure that is rarely used. Rapid technology changes, increasing pressure for cleaner electricity generation and the emergence of new business models for electricity supply is changing the way electricity is generated, delivered and used. Technology changes present both opportunities and challenges for electricity supply and consumers. Evidence already shows that electricity prices are unlikely to grow at the same rate over the coming period, but electricity costs remain a concern for business, industry and households seeking price relief. PURPOSE OF THE INQUIRY It is against this background that the Queensland Government has asked us to examine electricity pricing in Queensland and provide options for improving outcomes for consumers. In undertaking this Inquiry the Queensland Government asked us to consider a range of issues including the competitive electricity market, productivity growth, efficiency and reliability, environmental outcomes, vulnerable customers and responsible management of the State’s finances. Our role has been to consider all segments of the electricity supply sector in Queensland, including the major cost drivers, and advise the Queensland Government of changes we consider are needed to support the efficient delivery of electricity supply in the short, medium and longer term. A particular challenge is to maintain productivity in the supply chain while allowing for innovation to emerge to benefit consumers. This is especially the case in the network and generation sectors, given recent high levels of capitalisation in the centralised grid and increasing competitive tension from new entrants – often in the form of behind-the-meter