NIGERIA EARLY GENERATION SEED STUDY COUNTRY REPORT August 2016 This publication was produced by Feed the Future: Building Capacity for African Agricultural Transformation Project (Africa Lead II) for the United States Agency for International Development NIGERIA EARLY GENERATION SEED STUDY COUNTRY REPORT Program Title: Early Generation Seed Systems Study, Feed the Future: Building Capacity for African Agricultural Transformation (Africa Lead II) Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID Bureau of Food Security Award Number: DAI Prime Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-A-13-00085 for the U.S. Agency for International Development, Feed the Future: Building Capacity for African Agricultural Transformation (Africa LEAD II) Program Subcontract: DAI subcontract No. ALB-2015-001 with Context Network Date of Publication: August 2016 Author: Context Network and Sahel Capital The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................... I TABLES AND FIGURES ..................................................................................................... III FOREWORD ....................................................................................................................... V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................... VII ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................................... VIII TERMINOLOGY .................................................................................................................. X METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. XII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... XV CHAPTER 1: CURRENT SITUATION – DOMINANT SEED SYSTEMS ............................... 1 1.1. COUNTRY OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 AGRICULTURE SECTOR ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3 DOMINANT SEED SYSTEMS IN NIGERIA ............................................................................ 13 1.4 KEY ACTORS IN THE SEED SYSTEM ................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER 2: CURRENT SITUATION – PRIORITY CROPS FOR EGS STUDY ................ 22 2.1 FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTING CROPS FOR STUDY ............................................................. 22 2.2 SELECTED CROPS .......................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 3: CURRENT SITUATION – EGS SYSTEMS ................................................... 26 3.1 EARLY GENERATION SEED SYSTEMS ............................................................................... 26 3.2 RICE .............................................................................................................................. 26 3.3 YAM ............................................................................................................................... 35 3.4 MAIZE ............................................................................................................................ 44 3.5 SOYBEAN ....................................................................................................................... 51 3.6 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................................................ 58 3.7 PROMISING MODELS ....................................................................................................... 61 CHAPTER 4: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 63 4.1 POTENTIAL EGS DEMAND ............................................................................................... 63 4.2 PRODUCTION COST OF EGS ........................................................................................... 69 4.3 EGS MATCHED WITH REVENUE/COST ............................................................................. 72 CHAPTER 5: EGS OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES ............................................................ 78 5.1 OPTIMAL MARKET ARCHETYPE ........................................................................................ 78 5.2 KEY CHALLENGES .......................................................................................................... 80 5.3 A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP MECHANISM AND OTHER SOLUTIONS ............................ 81 5.4 RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................................... 87 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................ 94 ANNEX A: STUDY TIMELINE ............................................................................................ 99 NIGERIA EGS COUNTRY STUDY i ANNEX B: FIELD RESEARCH TEAM ............................................................................. 100 ANNEX C: STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEW LIST ............................................................... 101 ANNEX D: STAKEHOLDER ROUNDTABLE MEETING PARTICIPANTS ....................... 108 NIGERIA EGS COUNTRY STUDY ii TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES Table 1: Variables that inform market archetype framework ............................................... xiii Table 2: Regional crop yield across Nigeria (MT/Ha) (2013) ................................................. 5 Table 3: Gender roles in crop production by region ............................................................... 7 Table 4: Operational zones and secretariats of NASC ........................................................ 15 Table 5: National agricultural research institutes in Nigeria and their mandate crops .......... 16 Table 6: List of key private seed companies. ....................................................................... 19 Table 7: Seed-specific activities for government selected crops in ATA-GES ..................... 20 Table 8: Crop selection framework ...................................................................................... 21 Table 9: Rice production systems ....................................................................................... 27 Table 10: Key rice varieties ................................................................................................. 30 Table 11: Key improved varieties of yam released in Nigeria .............................................. 37 Table 12: Common local yam varieties in the informal system ............................................ 38 Table 13: Key maize varieties ............................................................................................. 46 Table 14: Key soybean varieties ......................................................................................... 54 Table 15: Rice – EGS cost of production............................................................................. 68 Table 16: Yam – EGS cost of production ............................................................................ 68 Table 17: OPV maize – EGS cost of production .................................................................. 69 Table 18: Hybrid maize – EGS cost of production ............................................................... 69 Table 19: Soybean – EGS cost of production ...................................................................... 70 Table 20: EGS matched with revenue/cost ......................................................................... 71 Table 21: Summary of rice assessment .............................................................................. 72 Table 22: Summary of yam assessment ............................................................................. 73 Table 23: Summary of hybrid maize assessment ................................................................ 74 Table 24: Summary of soybean assessment ....................................................................... 75 Table 25: Summary of key success factors and existing obstacles ..................................... 78 Table 26: Partners, contributions, and motivations for Malawi dairy PPP ............................ 80 Table 27: Maize and soybean EGS-PPP potential stakeholder list ...................................... 84 FIGURES Figure 1: EGS system ten-step process .............................................................................. xii Figure 2: Market archetype framework ............................................................................... xiii Figure 3: Map of Nigeria regions and % population share ..................................................... 1 Figure 4: Per capita GDP Nigeria compared to Sub-Saharan Africa ...................................... 2 Figure 5: Nigeria GDP composition (4th Quarter, 2015) ........................................................ 2 Figure 6: Nigeria agriculture GDP composition (2015) .......................................................... 2 Figure 7: Top ten crops by area (2013) ................................................................................. 3 Figure 8: Top ten crops