UIC Asia-Pacific Vision 2050 Commissionned by Mr. Vincent Vu, Director Institutional Relations & Coordinator Asia-Pacific Project manager: Mr. Yoshihiro Hono, Chairman’s officer Asia-Pacific region Author: Sustainable Development Foundation March 2016 ISBN 978-2-7461-2444-8 Warning No part of this publication may be copied, reproduced or distributed by any means whatsoever, including electronic, except for private and individual use, without the express permission of the International Union of Railways (UIC). The same applies for translation, adaptation or transformation, arrangement or reproduction by any method or procedure whatsoever. The sole exceptions - noting the author’s name and the source - are “analyses and brief quotations justified by the critical, argumentative, educational, scientific or informative nature of the publication into which they are incorporated” (Articles L 122-4 and L122-5 of the French Intellectual Property Code). © International Union of Railways (UIC) - Paris, 2016 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................7 AIM AND STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT .................................................. 15 1. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW OF THE REGION...................................................................................... 17 1.1 Growth ................................................................................................................. 19 1.1.1 Economic scale and Growth of Asia-Pacific .....................................................19 1.1.2 Productivity ..................................................................................................................26 1.1.3 Expenditure ..................................................................................................................28 1.1.4 Industry structure ..................................................................................................... 30 1.1.5 Global Value Chain .....................................................................................................31 1.1.6 Population and Urbanisation .................................................................................33 3 1.2 Impacts ............................................................................................................... 38 1.2.1 Energy, emissions, environment ...........................................................................38 1.2.2 Social development ..................................................................................................42 2. STATE OF THE ART OF THE RAILWAY SECTOR IN THE REGION .......................................................................................47 2.1 Transport and rail activity .............................................................................. 47 2.1.1 Rail activity ...................................................................................................................47 2.1.2 Modal split trends ..................................................................................................... 49 2.1.3 Trends on energy and CO2 emissions .................................................................51 2.1.4 Rail industry structure, market regulation and reforms ..............................54 2.1.5 Human resources development ...........................................................................55 2.2 Infrastructure .................................................................................................... 56 2.2.1 Length of the infrastructure ..................................................................................56 2.2.2 Infrastructure density ...............................................................................................57 2.2.3 Electrification ............................................................................................................. 60 2.2.4 High-Speed Lines ........................................................................................................61 2.2.5 Integration and interconnection ...........................................................................61 UIC ASIA-PACIFIC VISION 2050 3. TRANSPORT SCENARIO ...................................................................... 80 3.1 Transport demand: estimates for 2030 and 2050 ...................................80 3.2 Modal share: IEA 2DS and 4DS scenario (2030 and 2050) .................. 82 3.3 Motorisation ...................................................................................................... 83 3.4 Trade and transport ......................................................................................... 85 4. KEY ELEMENTS OF ASIA-PACIFIC RAILWAYS AT SUBREGIONAL LEVEL ................................................................... 89 4.1 North and Central Asia ................................................................................... 89 4.1.1 Economic outlook ......................................................................................................89 4.1.2 Rail activity development .......................................................................................89 4.1.3 Rail infrastructure development .......................................................................... 90 4.2 East Asia .............................................................................................................. 91 4.2.1 Economic outlook .......................................................................................................91 4.2.2 Transport outlook ......................................................................................................92 4 4.2.3 Rail activity development .......................................................................................93 4.2.4 Rail infrastructure development ...........................................................................96 4.2.5 Rail industries and market reform .......................................................................98 4.3 South-East Asia ................................................................................................ 99 4.3.1 Economic outlook ......................................................................................................99 4.3.2 Transport outlook ......................................................................................................99 4.3.3 Rail activity development .....................................................................................102 4.3.4 Rail infrastructure development .........................................................................103 4.3.5 Rail industries and market reform .....................................................................105 4.4 South Asia ........................................................................................................ 106 4.4.1 Economic outlook ....................................................................................................106 4.4.2 Transport outlook ....................................................................................................106 4.4.3 Rail activity development ..................................................................................... 107 4.4.4 Rail infrastructure development .........................................................................109 4.4.5 Rail industries and market reform ...................................................................... 112 4.5 Pacific .................................................................................................................113 4.5.1 Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 113 4.5.2 Transport outlook ..................................................................................................... 114 Table of Contents 4.5.3 Rail activity development ...................................................................................... 115 4.5.4 Rail infrastructure development .......................................................................... 116 4.5.5 Rail industries and market reform ...................................................................... 118 5. UIC ASIA-PACIFIC VISION FOR 2050 .............................................120 5.1 Asia-Pacific Perspectives 2050 ...................................................................120 5.1.1 The Green Growth Approach ............................................................................... 121 5.1.2 Towards 2050 – Transforming risks in opportunities: the Asia-Pacific Century ..................................................................................... 123 5.1.3 The role of railways ..................................................................................................127 5.2 UIC today ..........................................................................................................132 5.2.1 UIC Worldwide: mission, activities and core values ................................... 132 5.2.2 UIC Asia-Pacific region Action Plan 2013-2016 ............................................ 133 5.3 UIC AP tomorrow: a vision for 2050 ..........................................................136 5.3.1 Vision ............................................................................................................................ 136 5.3.2 Strategic Action Areas for UIC Asia-Pacific ...................................................137