STUDY The Dynamics of Conflict in the Multi-ethnic State of Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Conflict-Analysis Study TIMO KIvIMäKI, MARINA KRAMeR AND PAUl PASCH March 2012 Timo Kivimäki, Marina Kramer and Paul Pasch The Dynamics of COnFlict In the MUlti-ethnic State of Bosnia AnD HerzegovInA SarajEvO, 2012. Title: The Dynamics of Conflict in the Multi-ethnic State of Bosnia and Herzegovina Authors: Timo Kivimäki, Marina Kramer and Paul Pasch Published by: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Kupreška 20 71 000 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina Tel.: +387 (0)33 722-010 E-mail: [email protected] www.fes.ba © Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Responsible: Paul Pasch Proofreading: Gwen jones DTP: Filip Andronik CIP - Katalogizacija u publikaciji nacionalna i univerzitetska biblioteka Bosne i Hercegovine, Sarajevo 323.1(497.6) KIvIMÄKI, Timo The dynamic of conflict in the multi-ethnic State of Bosnia and Herzegovina : country conflict-analysis study / Timo Kivimäki, Marina Kramer and Paul Pasch. - Sarajevo : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2012. - 127 str. : graf. prikazi ; 30 cm Bibliografija: str. 117-122 i uz tekst. ISBn 978-9958-884-17-7 1. Kramer, Marina 2. Pasch, Paul COBISS.BH-ID 19946502 The Dynamics of Conflict in the Multi-ethnic State of Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Conflict-Analysis Study TIMO KIvIMäKI, MARINA KRAMeR AND PAUl PASCH SarajEvO, 2012. TIMO KIvIMäKI, MARINA KRAMeR AND PAUl PASCH | THe DYNAMICS Of CONflICT IN THe MUlTI-eTHNIC State Of BOSNIA AND HeRzeGOvINA Table of Contents foreword ...........................................................................................................................7 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................10 executive Summary .........................................................................................................11 1. Introduction ...............................................................................................................14 2. Historical Background and Basic Political Setting ...................................................16 3. Diagnosis of the Basic Sources of Conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina .................18 3.1 Political Causes of Conflict .................................................................................18 3.1.1 Continuing constitutional disagreement among ethnic groups over fundamental political principles regarding the form of the state ....................18 3.1.2 Disagreements about the rights of individuals and groups .............................33 3.1.3 Mental maps: Agents in the ethnic and political divisions ..............................34 3.1.4 Potential antagonistic ethnic divisions ...........................................................37 3.1.5 Potential antagonistic political divisions .........................................................48 3.2 Economic Causes, Motives and Opportunities for Conflict ..................................50 3.2.1 Economic situation .......................................................................................50 3.2.2 Economic grievances may lead to frustration violence ...................................52 3.2.3 The weakness of public order offers opportunities to gainful violence. ..........55 3.2.4 The economy and indirect causes of conflict .................................................56 3.2.5 Mental maps: Agents in the economic structures ..........................................60 4. Scenarios of Peace and Conflict ................................................................................66 4.1 Status Quo .........................................................................................................66 4.1.1 Conditions for continuing the Status Quo .....................................................67 4.1.2 Conflict potential in Status Quo ....................................................................68 4.1.3 Peace potential in Status Quo .......................................................................73 4.2 Dissolution .........................................................................................................77 4.2.1 Disintegration and the potential for peace and conflict..................................78 4.2.2 Somalisation and the potential of peace and conflict .....................................80 4.3 Functional Decentralised State ............................................................................81 4.3.1 Conflict potential in the transformation towards a more functional model of decentralisation ............................................................................................82 4.3.2 Peaceful scenarios in Functional Decentralisation ..........................................87 4.4 Functional Centralized State ...............................................................................89 4.5 Regional Reconnection within the EU .................................................................90 4.5.1 Peace and conflict potential in the Regional Union scenario ..........................90 5. How Can International Assistance Support Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina? ...91 5.1 European Union and Motives of violence ...........................................................91 5.1.1 How to alleviate grievances related to the state paralysis and economic problems? ....................................................................................................95 5.1.3 Grievances related provocations and historical unfairness ..............................96 5.1.3 Grievances related to the fear for ethnic identity ...........................................98 5.2 European Union and Gainful and Opportunity-driven violence .........................100 5.3 European Union and Ethnic Antagonism...........................................................103 5 TIMO KIvIMäKI, MARINA KRAMeR AND PAUl PASCH | THe DYNAMICS Of CONflICT IN THe MUlTI-eTHNIC State Of BOSNIA AND HeRzeGOvINA 6. Conclusion: Post-conflict Recovery - Not Yet Achieved ........................................106 Appendices ....................................................................................................................108 Appendix 1: leading Politicians and Political Parties in BiH ...........................................108 Appendix 2: BiH’s legislative and Executive Bodies ...................................................... 112 Appendix 3: Ethnic Composition in 1998 ..................................................................... 113 Appendix 4: Federation of BiH .................................................................................... 114 Appendix 5: list of Interviewees .................................................................................. 115 Appendix 6: Questionnaire .......................................................................................... 117 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................121 About the Authors ........................................................................................................127 Tables and Ilustrations Graph 3.1: Gross domestic product per capita ....................................................................50 Graph 3.2: GDP Composition, 2010 ....................................................................................50 Graph 3.3. Distribution of labour force, 2012 ......................................................................50 Graph 3.4: Current account balance, as percentage of GDP ................................................51 Graph 3.5: Unemployment rate, IMF estimate .....................................................................51 Table 1: Stakeholder relationships in BiH .............................................................................35 Table 2: net Official Development Aid ................................................................................57 Table 3: Flows of foreign direct investment classified by country..........................................60 Illustration 2.1 ...................................................................................................................16 Illustration 3.1. ..................................................................................................................34 Illustration 4.1. Basic scenarios ............................................................................................66 Illustration 4.2. Summary of the Status Quo scenarios .........................................................76 Illustration 4.3. Path to Disintegration .................................................................................77 lllustration 4.4. Path to Somalisation ...................................................................................78 Illustration 4.5. Path to peace and conflict from ethnic Dissolution ......................................80 Illustration 4.6. Path to peace and conflict from Somalisation ..............................................81 Illustration 4.7. Path to Functional Decentralisation .............................................................83 Illustration 4.8. Scenarios from Functional Decentralisation .................................................88 Illustration 4.9. Path to peace and conflict from the Regional Reconnection ........................92 6 TIMO KIvIMäKI, MARINA KRAMeR AND PAUl PASCH | THe DYNAMICS Of CONflICT IN THe MUlTI-eTHNIC State Of BOSNIA AND HeRzeGOvINA You can’t shake hands with