Weekly Cat Report May 15, 2020 This Week’s Natural Disaster Events Damaged Structures Preliminary Event Impacted Areas Fatalities Page and/or Filed Claims Economic Loss (USD)* Severe Weather United States 0 Thousands 100+ million 3 Typhoon Vongfong Philippines N/A Thousands Millions 6 Severe Weather Western & Central Europe 0 Hundreds 10s of millions 8 Flooding Indonesia 7+ 916+ Thousands 10 Severe Weather Vietnam 1 8,720+ 3.9+ million 10 Severe Weather Thailand 2 10,107+ Millions 10 Severe Weather India 29+ Unknown Millions 10 Landslide Ethiopia 12+ Unknown Negligible 10 Flooding Kenya 43+ 10,000+ Unknown 11 Wildfire United States 0 Unknown Millions 11 *Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments. Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com Weekly Cat Report 2 Multiple SCS events bring more U.S. hail & wind damage Two more rounds of severe weather brought additional damaging impacts across the central U.S. in the past week: May 7-8 and May 13-14. Most damage was due to large hail and straight-line winds that caused widespread damage to property and vehicles in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Louisiana. Total combined economic losses from each event were expected to exceed USD100 million (USD). Most of the wind and hail-related damage will be covered by insurance. May 7-8 Meteorological Recap Two rounds of severe weather brought large and significant hail along with damaging winds in the late evening and overnight hours to portions of northcentral Texas, including the Fort Worth metro region, as well as southern Oklahoma, adjacent to and north of the Red River Valley, southwest Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, and northeast Texas (ArkLaTex). A potent supercell storm brought an almost continuous swath of severe and at times significant hail along a corridor from north of Childress County, Texas, extending southeast toward the Fort Worth metro area. The storm was initiated ahead of an approaching dry line stretching southward from a developing surface low over the Texas panhandle. In this region, strong southerly winds at the surface allowed for ample moisture advection and increasing dewpoints, while a westerly mid-level flow and steep lapse rates (changes in temperature with height) were ideal for the formation of isolated supercells. Overtime, the storm weakened in an increasingly stable environment as it approached the western Fort Worth metro area, however severe hail reports were still present in Tarrant County (Texas). Weekly Cat Report 3 Further west, a region of showers and storms initiated by an upper level shortwave trough, intensified ahead of an approaching cold front in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. This activity developed into a mesoscale convective complex which progressed southeastward overnight along a warm frontal boundary. This system resulted in multiple reports of large hail and damaging winds as it evolved across southern Oklahoma and into the ArkLaTex region in the early morning hours. Multiple structures were impacted from high winds and downed trees. Event Details On May 7, there were 111 reports of severe weather, of which 52 were for hail, and 59 for wind. Of the hail reports, 18 were for significant hail (hail greater than or equal to 2.0 inches). Significant hail approaching baseball size and larger, 3.00 inches (7.6 cm), were reported in Childress, Wilbarger, and Baylor Counties (Texas), associated with the supercell storm. Further south near the Fort Worth metro area, in Tarrant County (Texas), hailstones approaching 1.25 inches (3.18 cm) were reported. Overall, the supercell storm produced an almost continuous swath of severe hail spanning from Childress County southeast into Tarrant County (Texas). In addition to hail, severe and damaging wind reports were common with this event. A recoded severe wind gust of 90 mph (145 kph) in Roberts County (Texas) was responsible for reports of impacted structures, downed trees, and snapped fence posts. Overnight and into the morning hours on May 8, severe wind gusts in the ArkLaTex region resulted in several reports of downed trees causing damage to structures and powerlines. Several homes were impacted in the town of Springhill in Webster Parish (Louisiana). May 13-14 Meteorological Recap Scattered severe thunderstorms and storm clusters occurred across the Southern Plains on the evening of May 13 resulting in localized severe hail and high winds. Earlier in the day, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a region of Enhanced Risk for severe weather (level 3 out of 5) for portions of northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. A surrounding Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 out of 5) extended north into southern Kansas and south toward the Texas border; in addition to an east to west spanning axis across the Nebraska/Kansas state line into southwestern Iowa. A severe threat was also present for portions of northern Coahuila and Nuevo Leon in Mexico. The narrow environment for severe weather in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma resulted from a modest shortwave trough May 13 Surface Map (Source: NOAA) progressing in southwesterly flow toward the Southern Plains, in association with an eastward advancing surface low pressure system originally over eastern Colorado. Storms initiated near and ahead of an approaching dryline (boundary that separates a moist air mass from a dry air mass) in a region with increasing instability resulting from diurnal heating and moisture advection from strong southerly winds. Discrete cells and storm clusters that were initially severe, quickly began to weaken as they progressed into a less favorable environment overnight. The pattern would later shift into the Midwest on May 14 as multiple rounds of thunderstorms and torrential rains were fed by a vigorous low-level jet stream that allowed a plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to surge northward. Most storms, however, were not severe. As of this writing, the SPC had listed an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) on May 15 for the Northeast. Damaging winds were the greatest risk. Weekly Cat Report 4 Event Details Preliminary data shows 31 reports of severe weather from this event, of which 21 were for hail. Hailstones approaching 2.50 inches (6.4 centimeters), tennis ball size, were reported in Ector County (Texas), and hail approaching 2.00 inches (5.1 centimeters) were reported in Beckhan County (Oklahoma). Maximum straight-line wind gusts of 70 mph (112 kph) were observed in Hockley and Garza Counties (Texas), and Greer County (Oklahoma). Financial Loss Total combined economic losses from each event were expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD). Most of the wind and hail-related damage will be covered by insurance. The additional losses will add to what has already been an active and costly year for severe convective storms in the United States. Through the latter half of April, the country had already recorded seven individual billion-dollar SCS events. Three of those topped USD1 billion for insurance claims. Weekly Cat Report 5 Vongfong strikes the Philippines; first 2020 WPAC landfall Typhoon Vongfong became the first named storm of the 2020 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season and made separate landfalls in the Philippines on May 14-15. The system first came ashore in the Visayas island group as a Category 3 storm with 185 kph (115 mph) winds before slowly weakening and later tracking towards Luzon. As of this writing, the Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) cited widespread wind, flood damage, and coastal inundation. Total economic losses to infrastructure and agriculture alone were likely to reach well into the millions (USD). Meteorological Recap The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began watching an organized convection in early May in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. On May 13 at 00:00 UTC, the agency noted that the system had become better organized and was deemed Typhoon Vongfong as it slowly meandered towards the west. The system first attained hurricane-equivalent intensity on May 13 at 12:00 UTC – 150 kph (90 mph); Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – as it began to steadily strengthen while tracking over the warm waters of the Northwest Pacific. The JTWC began highlighting the possibility of further intensification prior to making landfall on province of Northern Samar in the eastern Philippines. On May 13, rapid intensification occurred as Typhoon Vongfong neared the eastern Philippines. During one 24-hour stretch ending on May 13 18:00 UTC, the system strengthened by 95 kph (60 mph) alone to an initial peak intensity of 185 kph (115 mph). The system fluctuated in intensity as it neared the Philippines archipelago with the eye feature contracting and undergoing replacement cycles. It officially made landfall on May 14 at San Policarpo, Eastern Samar, Philippines at 04:15 UTC (12:15 PM local time) at its peak intensity. After coming ashore, the system continued to slowly weaken as it crossed Visayas and was later expected to move into Luzon. Further weakening was likely before re-emerging into the South China Sea on May 16. Weekly Cat Report 6 Event Details Damage details remained scarce as of this writing on May 14 as Vongfong was continuing to track across Visayas and towards Luzon. Government officials warned that more than 200,000 people lived along coastal areas in Eastern Samar province; where Vongfong initially made landfall. Initial reports noted that torrential rains, multiple feet of storm surge, and winds gusting to 160 kph (100 mph) were noted.