WIDER, TALLER, HEAVIER: EVOLUTION OF LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE SIZE OVER GENERATIONS Working Paper 17 Table of Contents Wider, taller, heavier: Evolution of light duty vehicle size over generations ........................................ 1 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................. 5 Key points ............................................................................................................................................ 6 Policy recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction: The importance of vehicle size for fuel economy ......................................................... 9 Vehicle size: Qualitative definition and measurable metrics .............................................................. 9 How to define, measure and classify vehicle size ........................................................................... 9 Vehicle size and fuel economy policies ............................................................................................. 17 Why are weight and footprint the main metrics used as a proxy for vehicle size? ...................... 17 Macro Analysis: Macroscopic trends in weight and footprint .......................................................... 20 Methodological approaches .......................................................................................................... 20 Weight and footprint evolution .................................................................................................... 21 How OEMs alter fleets depending on region ................................................................................ 23 Micro analysis: Top sellers’ weight and footprint evolution ............................................................. 27 Vehicle selection and market representation ............................................................................... 27 50 years of emblematic models’ size and weight evolution ......................................................... 29 SUVs: Game changers to size and weight evolution ..................................................................... 32 Fuel economy tests favor SUVs ..................................................................................................... 33 Why do models continuously increase in size? ............................................................................. 33 Is light-weighting a reality? ........................................................................................................... 34 Battery weight still a barrier to widespread electric vehicle deployment .................................... 37 Looking ahead: Regulating vehicle size? ........................................................................................... 38 References ......................................................................................................................................... 40 Annex I: Average vehicle price by OEM ............................................................................................. 43 Annex II: Weight and Footprint evolution of emblematic models .................................................... 44 2 List of figures Figure 1: Top drivers for vehicle renewal in India (Deloitte, 2014) ......................................................... 9 Figure 2: Sample of interior height dimensions according to SAE J1100 .............................................. 10 Figure 3: Online media using standard set of luggage to compare luggage capacity (Km77.com, 2017) ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 4: Journalist using himself to highlight and compare rear passenger compartment size (L’argus, 2017) ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 5: Exterior versus interior size comparisons for U.S. models (Consumer Reports, 2017) ......... 16 Figure 6: interior size versus footprint and weight, by segment .......................................................... 19 Figure 7: Exterior size versus footprint and weight, by segment .......................................................... 19 Figure 8: Footprint versus weight for all models sold globally in the last decade ................................ 20 Figure 9: Weight and footprint evolution by region of registration, 2005 to 2015 .............................. 21 Figure 10: Average vehicle weight and footprint by OEM region of origin........................................... 22 Figure 11: Weight and footprint evolution by OEM type ...................................................................... 22 Figure 12: Weight and footprint evolution by fuel type ....................................................................... 23 Figure 13: Average weight and footprint by power bin (kW) ............................................................... 23 Figure 14: Weight and footprint evolution by region and OEM country of origin ................................ 25 Figure 15: Power-to-weight and power-to-footprint by OEM origin .................................................... 26 Figure 16: Average power density and engine size, by OEM type ........................................................ 26 Figure 17: Global market share by body style, 2005 to 2015 ............................................................... 27 Figure 18: Weight evolution from market introduction of typical long-lasting model names ............. 29 Figure 19: Medium-sized vehicles weigh evolution over generations .................................................. 30 Figure 20: Example of Large SUV versus average parking space size in the U.K. (Accident Exchange, 2017) ...................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 21: Longer and taller: side view of 1984 Voyager versus 2017 Pacifica (Car and Driver, 2017) 31 Figure 22: Weight and size evolution of the most popular hybrid vehicle, the Toyota Prius, over four generations ............................................................................................................................................ 31 Figure 23: Ford midsize vehicle weight and size evolution, together with MPV and SUV variants ...... 32 Figure 24: Frontal areas of Opel Corsa and its body variants ............................................................... 33 Figure 25: Size comparison of 1st Generation Golf versus last generation Polo ................................... 34 Figure 26: Average material content of light duty vehicles in the United States (DoE, 2017) .............. 35 Figure 27: Sales-weighted average weight of key models that have deployed weight reduction strategies ............................................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 28: Sales-weighted average weight of VW Golf by powertrain type ......................................... 36 Figure 29: Ford Escort /Focus, C-Max, Kuga weight and size evolution ................................................ 44 Figure 30: Volkswagen Golf, Touran, Tiguan weight and size evolution ............................................... 44 Figure 31: Toyota Corolla, C-HR weight and size evolution .................................................................. 45 Figure 32: BMW 3-series and X3 weight and size evolution ................................................................. 45 Figure 33: Chevrolet Impala weight and size evolution ........................................................................ 46 Figure 34: Honda Civic, CR-V weight and size evolution ....................................................................... 46 Figure 35: Renault 5, Clio and Captur weight and size evolution.......................................................... 47 Figure 36: Opel Corsa, Meriva and Mokka weight and size evolution .................................................. 47 Figure 37: Chrysler Voyager / Town and Country and Pacifica weight and size evolution ................... 48 Figure 38: Toyota Prius weight and size evolution ................................................................................ 48 3 List of tables Table 1: Size class quantified definition versus market class in search engine of fueleconomy.gov.... 12 Table 2: Example of market segmentation used for GFEI analysis (IEA, 2011 and IEA, 2017) .............. 13 Table 3: ACRISS car codes definitions.................................................................................................... 14 Table 4: Pros and cons of each vehicle size measurement and categorization approach .................... 15 Table 5: Overview of potential index parameters including qualitative assessment (ICCT, 2011) ....... 18 Table 6: Top 10 model registrations in the GFEI database.................................................................... 28 Table 7: Vehicles selected for size and weight comparison over generations...................................... 28 Table 8: BEV powertrain extra weight on popular models ................................................................... 37 4 Acknowledgements