EUROPEAN BLOCKCHAIN CENTER, IT UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING IAO Roman Beck | Michael Kubach | Kim Peiter Jørgensen | Rachelle Sellung | Christian Schunck | Lorenzo Gentile »STUDY ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BLOCKCHAIN ON THE DANISH INDUSTRY AND LABOR MARKET« ISBN 978-87-7949-372-8 TR-2019-206 Danish Industry Foundation Frederiksgade 17, 1265 Copenhagen, Denmark www.industriensfond.dk IT University of Copenhagen European Blockchain Center Rued Langgaards Vej 7, 2300 Copenhagen, Denmark www.itu.dk Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering Nobelstraße 12, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany www.iao.fraunhofer.de Authors: Prof. Dr. Roman Beck European Blockchain Center Phone: +45 7218 5323 [email protected] Dr. Michael Kubach Fraunhofer IAO Phone: +49 711 970-2428 [email protected] Kim Peiter Jørgensen, M Sc. European Blockchain Center Phone: +45 2675 5527 [email protected] Rachelle Sellung, M Sc. Fraunhofer IAO Phone: +49 711 970-2403 [email protected] Dr. Christian Schunck Fraunhofer IAO Phone: +49 711 970-2430 [email protected] Lorenzo Gentile European Blockchain Center Phone: +45 5264 9806 [email protected] Preface Preface Blockchain technology has received significant attention in recent years. The discussions have been around its functionalities, large potentials, as well as potentially new groundbreaking business models and on how the technology should be implemented to the benefit of Danish industry. Even though blockchain has been much debated, specific experiences from Danish companies are still limited, and until now there has been no systematic overview regarding the development of blockchain in Denmark. This has changed now with the report at hand. The report is a joined achievement of the European Blockchain Center at the IT University of Copenhagen, Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering, Confederation of Danish Industry, Statistics Denmark, and the Danish Industry Foundation and focuses on the application of blockchain technologies in different industry sectors in Denmark. The report provides a general introduction into blockchain, an analysis of clusters, a review of the comprehensive empirical study, a comparison with selected countries, scenario analyses, and finally recommendations in the conclusion. In other words, the report presents a mapping of Danish clusters from a blockchain perspective and a status overview on the application and future plans when it comes to blockchain in six different Danish industry sectors with a focus upon opportunities as well as barriers. Further relevant considerations from abroad are presented as well as an analysis of significant scenarios. The report provides the needed empirical background for decision makers in industry as well as politics regarding the status quo and future o blockchain and distributed ledger technologies in Denmark. The report provides first evidence that more effort is needed and a coordinated plan comprising private and public institutions to further stimulate the growth of the emerging blockchain industry as innovation driver for other industries. Further it seems advantageous to look at other countries whom have obtained valuable experiences already, as it is crucial to ensure the availability of the right competences for Danish businesses and industries – to the extent it is relevant – to obtain the knowledge and labor needed to develop a competitive Danish industry around blockchain. European Blockchain Center, IT University of Copenhagen, Fraunhofer IAO Study on the Economic Impact of Blockchain on the Danish Industry and Labor Market 3 Preface Precisely such challenges have been addressed by The Danish Industry Foundation in a theme-call on competitive power from blockchain. The call is based upon the general interest of the Fund in new technologies, and has resulted in a number of projects, each of which will create new knowledge and new experiences through the use of blockchain technologies in Danish corporate life. With the mapping at hand a baseline has been defined. Now it is time for creating positive impact and change. Enjoy reading! Thomas Hofman-Bang CEO The Danish Industry Foundation European Blockchain Center, IT University of Copenhagen, Fraunhofer IAO 4 Study on the Economic Impact of Blockchain on the Danish Industry and Labor Market Preface Executive Summary OVERVIEW Blockchain is regarded as equally important or even more important than the Internet. Blockchain enforces business logics among and across several stakeholders within a supply chain, thereby minimizing transaction costs, providing a transparent economy where transparency is needed. Thus, having a more precise understanding of the economic impact of the emerging blockchain industry on a macroeconomic level for Denmark is of vital importance for decision makers. The study at hand for Denmark is the first worldwide covering several industries on a national level. The study was made on behalf of Danish The Danish Industry Foundation by the European Blockchain Center at IT-University Copenhagen in close cooperation with Fraunhofer IAE and Danmarks Statistik. The purpose of the study is to provide solid evidence for decision makers in industry and politics about the future positioning and strategy for blockchain development and assimilation in Denmark. We specifically focus on how Danish companies can build and steer successful blockchain innovations while driving societal welfare at the same time. The empirical study follows a quantitative research methodology able to capture current interrelationships and numerical characteristics in the Danish economy. The study also discloses causal relations on why companies assimilate blockchain technologies, as well as drivers and barriers for doing so. With more than 1,300 responding Danish companies, or 44 percent response rate, the study covers over 20 percent of all companies in the researched industries in Denmark. WHY A STUDY ON BLOCKCHAIN? Blockchain has attracted great interest not only from the IT industry, but also from other industries and governments around the world. Originally associated with Bitcoin, blockchain is now spreading as a generic infrastructure technology offering extreme security, safety as well as new services to meet severely heightened requirements for privacy management of personal data. Increasingly, large companies are forming alliances and consortiums around blockchain technologies investing significantly in its research and development. As an example, more than 145 companies including IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, JP Morgan and Toyota form the Hyperledger consortium. The commonly used trusted third-party model to deal with the lack of trust is found increasingly to be inefficient, generating transaction costs that pile up to billions of U.S. dollars per year while excluding a significant number of the world's population and companies from participation. The trusted third-party model centralizes information and concentrates high power in third parties like financial institutions making them also a European Blockchain Center, IT University of Copenhagen, Fraunhofer IAO Study on the Economic Impact of Blockchain on the Danish Industry and Labor Market 5 Preface systemic risk as they are under constant attacks from hackers. The processing of information by third parties introduces delays in transactions and may be limited geographically, thus creating friction in transaction processes. As blockchain technologies are still at an early stage of development we only have seen the beginning so far, as the assimilation still faces technical, societal and legal challenges. A key driver for the use of blockchain however are the potential significant savings, as well as potential new services, made possible by technology-mediated trust. A blockchain is a distributed tamper-resistant digital ledger, a log of all individual transactions conducted within a given system. These lists are grouped into blocks that are chained together so that any manipulation of data afterwards is made extremely difficult. Blockchain uses cryptographic algorithms to verify the creation and transfer of digitally represented assets or information over a peer to peer network. An innovative combination of distributed consensus protocols, cryptography, and in-built economic incentives is used to govern the network. A transaction in a blockchain network is stored in the ledger only if a set of peers validate the transaction through a consensus algorithm. Blockchain technology decentralizes information storage, reduces or eliminates the need of third parties and provides trust through technology and algorithms often publicly verifiable. In a nutshell, blockchains are decentralized, immutable, secure, consensual, and programmable to enforce business logics. BLOCKCHAIN AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY Blockchain technologies have the potential to change existing business models and thus have a transformative impact on industries, governments, and societies. For example, the World Economic Forum expects at least 10 percent of the global GDP being stored on blockchain platforms by 2025. Through blockchain technologies, value creators such as artists, composers, and designers could transfer value to their clients or consumers directly. Blockchain technologies make it possible to track and trace intellectual transfers of property thereby protecting equally producers and consumers of products and services. Blockchain allows the inclusion of self- regulating and self-controlling