Strategic Review of the Trust Fund to Support Initiatives of States Countering Piracy off the Coast of Somalia November 2016 Prepared by Peter Bauman1 and Sarah Hanssen 1 Peter Bauman, Founder & CEO, Bauman Global LLC Email: [email protected] Phone: 770-329-5588 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 4 1: Context Analysis and Current Trends ........................................................................ 5 2: Relevance of Current Interventions to Addressing Piracy’s Causes ....................... 21 3: Assessment of Trust Fund Project Outcomes and Impacts ...................................... 28 4: Future Role and Scope of the Trust Fund .................................................................. 45 5: Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 49 Annex 1: Breakdown of TF initiatives by theme, location, agency, and program. Annex 2: SWOT Analysis Annex 3: Supplemental Interview transcripts focused on al Shabaab 2 INTRODUCTION In response to the escalation of piracy and armed robbery off the coast of Somalia, the growing threat to commercial vessels and those delivering humanitarian aid, and the inability of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia to interdict and prosecute pirates and patrol and secure its territorial waters and international sea-lanes, the Security Council passed resolution 1851 (2008)2. That resolution “Encourages all States and regional organizations… to establish an international cooperation mechanism to act as a common point of contact between and among States, regional and international organizations on all aspects of combating piracy and armed robbery at sea off of Somalia’s coast.” In accordance with this resolution, the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (“Contact Group”) was established. In 2010 the Trust Fund to Support Initiatives of States Countering Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (TF) came into being to underwrite these initiatives.3 The purpose of the TF is “to help defray the expenses associated with prosecution of suspected pirates, as well as other activities related to implementing the Contact Group’s objectives.”4 More specifically, the TF was designed to “expand the current possibilities available to both States and the private sector to make tangible contributions to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia; permit the payment of expenses associated with prosecution and detention of suspected pirates; provide for an expedited distribution mechanism to allow for the payment or reimbursement of short-term prosecution related expenses; and support relevant legal capacity-building activities.” The TF includes two windows: (A) Prosecution and Detention and (B) Other Priority Activities related to implementing Contact Group objectives regarding combating piracy in all its aspects, including public communication initiatives. PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STRATEGIC REVIEW Since the formation of the Contact Group and TF, the context has changed. No successful hijacking of a major commercial vessel has occurred since 2012. However, the root causes of piracy persist and the threat of a resurgence remains. In parallel with discussions on the future of the Contact Group, the UNDPA, the Trust Fund board, and other stakeholders decided to take stock of the TF in relation to the current context. The TF was set up when piracy was at its height warranting sea-based interdiction, arrests and prosecutions. Therefore, projects largely focused on building regional capacity to conduct prosecutions and trials, building and improving prison conditions, hostage support and debriefing, and building government law enforcement capacity. Five years later, there is consensus that these initiatives contributed to the suppression of piracy. Widespread recognition also exists that the threat remains and more durable solutions are needed to address root causes. In addition to analyzing contextual changes, board members noted the importance of identifying potential linkages between the TF and the five Peacebuilding and State Building Goals, the Somalia UN MPTF, Somalia National Development Plan (NDP), and Somalia Maritime Resource and Security Strategy (SMRSS), which includes the Maritime Security Coordination Committee (MSCC). To take stock of TF achievements and provide recommendations for its future this review includes 6 components: 1) An updated context analysis of the root causes and drivers of piracy that continue to serve as threats. 2) An assessment to determine if the root causes and drivers are being addressed by the Somali New Deal Compact, national development priorities, and bi-lateral and multilateral actors such as the World Bank and UN partners. 3) Contextualize this with evolving discussions on the future role and scope of the Contact Group and TF. 2 https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/1851.pdf 3 In 2012, the TOR for the Trust Fund was revised resulting in the transfer of the administrative role from UNODC to UNDP’s MPTF office. 4 http://mdtf.undp.org/document/download/10486 3 4) Make recommendations to the Board on how to improve synergies between the TF and other initiatives including the SMRSS. 5) Review TF projects and determine if they are aligned with the changed context, identify programmatic gaps, and determine if and how the TF or other actors are situated. 6) Provide a range of options for the future of the TF. METHODOLOGY The strategic review took place between April and September 2016. The methodology included an extensive literature review including a taxonomy of all of the TF projects funded to date, Skype/phone and in-person interviews and focus group discussions with over 160 stakeholders including: representatives of UN agencies and other bi-lateral and multi-lateral donors, INGOs and contractors, national and local NGOs, civil society actors, traditional and religious leaders, representatives of the FGS and officials from regional governments including Puntland, Somaliland, Jubaland, and Galmudug. A range of global experts were consulted and representatives of the TF board and members of the Contact Group were interviewed. In addition, direct interviews were conducted with incarcerated pirates and their family members. Field visits included: § New York City (April 26 - 29, 2016) - Interviewed representatives of UN agencies, MPTF office, UN agencies, and official missions to the UN. § Seychelles (May 31 - June 3, 2016) – Attended the Contact Group’s 19th Plenary Session and observed the general assembly and working group meetings. Conducted consultations with members of the Contact Group, FGS, regional governments, civil society, and representatives of the shipping industry and foreign navy’s. Visited the TF supported court house and prison and interviewed the prison director, translator, and incarcerated pirates. Observed the TF’s board meeting and presented the methodology of the Strategic Review. Several discussions were also conducted with the Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Tayé-Brook Zerihoun. § Kenya and Somalia (July 4 – August 3, 2016) – Interviewed stakeholders in Nairobi, Mogadishu, Hargeisa, and Garowe; visited the Hargeisa prison, interviewed prison mentors, the prison director, incarcerated pirates and their family members. § New York City (August 21 - 23, 2016) – Debriefed the UNDPA Somalia team, TF Secretariat Deputy Director of Political Affairs Samba Sane and Under-Secretary-General Jeffrey Feltman. Once interviews and observations were completed, the data was consolidated and analyzed. When possible, information was triangulated using a combination of interviews, literature, and observations. Although this was a very comprehensive strategic review, some limitations should be noted. First, due to security precautions and time constraints it was not possible to visit coastal towns and urban centers where piracy once thrived. This limited the capacity to collect primary data and restricted the ability to review the quality and impact of many TF projects. Second, most of the TF projects did not undergo external reviews or evaluations. Third, many of the TF projects lacked rigorous reporting. This combined with staff turn-over resulted in limited institutional memory of the TF projects, their objectives, outcomes, impact, relevance, and lessons learned. Despite these constraints, this strategic review provides ample data and analysis to assist the board and the Contact Group as well as UNDPA to take stock of achievements and determine next steps in relation to the current context. 4 1. CONTEXT ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS 1.1 Emergence of Piracy Although sea robbery and other activities of ocean-going militia have a long history in Somalia, the first recorded “piracy” incident in modern Somalia occurred on January 12, 1991, when the Jeddah-bound cargo ship, MV Naviluck was captured off the coastal town of Haafuun (Cape Guardafui). The ship was looted and destroyed and three Filipino crew members were killed. Weeks later Mohamed Siad Barre, President of the Somali Democratic Republic (1969-91), was ousted. A power struggle ensued between clan warlords resulting in a protracted civil war and state collapse. Exploiting the security vacuum, opportunists including militiamen, fisherman, and former