POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Partha Dasgupta Population and VOLUME 26 NUMBER 4 resources: An exploration of D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 0 reproductive and environmental externalities John B. Casterline and Steven W. Sinding Unmet need for family planning and implications for population policy Susan Cotts Watkins Local and foreign models of reproduction in Nyanza Province, Kenya Alaka Malwade Basu and Sajeda Amin Conditioning factors for fertility decline in Bengal: History, language identity, and openness to innovations Notes and Commentary M. R. Montgomery on perceiving mortality decline Archives Jean-Baptiste Moheau on the moral causes of diminished fertility Book Reviews by W.P. Falcon, R.A. Easterlin, G.T.F. Acsádi, L.T. 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POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW VOLUME 26 NUMBER 4 D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 0 ARTICLES Population and Resources: An Exploration of Reproductive and Environmental Externalities 643 PARTHA DASGUPTA Unmet Need for Family Planning in Developing Countries and Implications for Population Policy 691 JOHN B. CASTERLINE STEVEN W. SINDING Local and Foreign Models of Reproduction in Nyanza Province, Kenya 725 SUSAN COTTS WATKINS Conditioning Factors for Fertility Decline in Bengal: History, Language Identity, and Openness to Innovations 761 ALAKA MALWADE BASU SAJEDA AMIN NOTES AND COMMENTARY Perceiving Mortality Decline 795 MARK R. MONTGOMERY ARCHIVES Jean-Baptiste Moheau on the Moral Causes of Diminished Fertility 821 BOOK REVIEWS Vaclav Smil, Feeding the World: A Challenge for the Twenty-First Century WALTER P. FALCON 827 Robert William Fogel, The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism RICHARD A. EASTERLIN 829 Massimo Livi Bacci, The Population of Europe: A History GEORGE T. F. ACSÁDI 831 Richard G. Rogers, Robert A. Hummer, and Charles B. Nam, Living and Dying in the USA: Behavioral, Health, and Social Differentials of Adult Mortality LADO T. RUZICKA 833 Short Reviews 835 DOCUMENTS Globalization and Inequality: A Norwegian Report 843 An Italian Statement on International Migration 849 ABSTRACTS 853 AUTHORS FOR THIS ISSUE 859 CONTENTS TO VOLUME 26 860 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 865 Population and Resources: An Exploration of Reproductive and Environmental Externalities PARTHA DASGUPTA POPULATION GROWTH ELICITS widely different responses from various observ- ers. Some believe it to be among the causes of the most urgent problems facing humankind today (e.g., Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990), while others per- mute the elements of this causal chain, arguing, for example, that contem- porary poverty and illiteracy in poor countries are the causes, rather than the consequences, of rapid population growth.1 Still others claim that even in the poorest countries population growth can be expected to provide a spur to economic progress.2 Among the many who remain, there is a wide spectrum of views, both on the determinants of population growth and on the effects of that growth on the natural-resource base and human welfare. It would seem not only that our attitudes toward population size and its growth differ, but that there is no settled view on how the matter should be studied. As with religion and politics, many people have opinions on popu- lation that they cling to with tenacity. In this article I bring together theoretical and empirical findings to ar- gue that such divergence of opinion is unwarranted. In the first two sec- tions I offer the conjecture that differences persist because the interface of population, resources, and welfare at a spatially localized level has been a relatively neglected subject. Neglect by experts is probably also the reason why the nexus has attracted much popular discourse, which, while often illuminating, is frequently descriptive rather than analytical. It is not uncommon among those who write about population, re- sources, and welfare to adopt a global, future-oriented view: the emphasis frequently is on the deleterious effects a large and increasingly affluent popu- lation would have on Earth in the future.3 This slant has been instructive, but it has drawn attention away from the economic misery and ecological degradation endemic in large parts of the world today. Disaster is not some- thing for which the poorest have to wait; it is a frequent occurrence. More- over, among the rural poor in developing countries, decisions on fertility, POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 26(4):643–689 (DECEMBER 2000) 643 Click to return to Table of Contents 644 P OPULATION AND RESOURCES on allocations concerning education, food, work, health care, and on the use of the local natural-resource base are in large measure reached and implemented within households that are unencumbered by compulsory schooling and visits from social workers, that do not have access to credit and insurance in formal markets, that cannot invest in well-functioning capi- tal markets, and that do not enjoy the benefits of social security and old- age pension schemes. These features of rural life direct me, in the third sec- tion, to study the interface of population growth, poverty, and environmental stress from a myriad of household, and ultimately individual, viewpoints. Women’s education and reproductive health have come to be seen as the most effective channels for influencing fertility. In subsequent sections I provide an outline of the theoretical and empirical reasons why they are so seen. An interesting analytical feature of both education and reproduc- tive health is that they can be studied within a framework where house- holds make decisions in isolation from other households. Thus, the theory of demand for education and