University of Florida Levin College of Law UF Law Scholarship Repository UF Law Faculty Publications Faculty Scholarship 2018 Decarbonizing Light-Duty Vehicles Amy L. Stein University of Florida Levin College of Law, [email protected] Joshua P. Fershee Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.ufl.edu/facultypub Part of the Environmental Law Commons Recommended Citation Amy L. Stein & Joshua Fershée, Decarbonizing Light-Duty Vehicles, 48 Envtl. L. Rep. 10596 (2018), available at This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at UF Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in UF Law Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of UF Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Copyright © 2018 Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, DC. Reprinted with permission from ELR®, http://www.eli.org, 1-800-433-5120. ARTICLES Introduction Decarbonizing An important component of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 Light-Duty involves legal pathways for changing our sources of trans- portation. Historically, the power sector was the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions. For the first time since Vehicles carbon emissions were initially tracked in the 1970s, how- ever, the transportation sector is now the leading source of carbon emissions.1 As of 2015, the transportation sec- tor was responsible for approximately 27% of GHG emis- sions2 and 34%3 of all U.S. carbon emissions.4 This shift by Amy L. Stein and Joshua Fershée is largely due to accelerated decreases in carbon intensity5 for the power sector compared to the transportation sec- tor (driven, in large part, by fuel switching from coal to natural gas).6 Notably, the transportation sector emits more GHG emissions even though the power sector reflects a larger share of energy consumption.7 Amy L. Stein is Professor of Law at the University of Florida Within the transportation sector, emissions from light- Levin School of Law. Joshua Fershée is Associate Dean for duty vehicles (LDVs)8 such as cars and sport utility vehicles Faculty Research and Development and Professor of Law (SUVs) account for more than one-half of total transpor- at the West Virginia University (WVU) College of Law, Center for Energy and Sustainable Development and WVU Authors’ Note: This Article was completed with the support of the University Center for Innovation in Gas Research and Utilization. of Florida Law School and research assistance from Joshua Rieger, and with the generous support of the WVU College of Law and the Hodges Summer Research Fund with research assistance from Morgan Villers. 1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Power Sector Carbon Diox- ide Emissions Fall Below Transportation Sector Emissions, Today in Energy, Jan. 19, 2017 [hereinafter Power Sector] (“U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emis- sions from the transportation sector reached 1,893 million metric tons Summary (MMt) from October 2015 through September 2016. .”), http://www. eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29612. Reducing the United States’ greenhouse gas emis- 2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (compared to 25% emissions from the power sector), https:// sions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 will www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions (last updated require multiple legal pathways for changing its trans- Apr. 14, 2017); Power Sector, supra note 1. 3. The White House, United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep portation fuel sources. The Deep Decarbonization Decarbonization 41 fig. 4.9 (2016), http://unfccc.int/files/focus/long- Pathways Project (DDPP) authors characterize trans- term_strategies/application/pdf/us_mid_century_strategy.pdf. 4. U.S. EPA, Fast Facts on Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions, https:// forming the transportation system as part of a third www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/fast-facts-transportation-greenhouse-gas-emis- pillar of fundamental changes required in the U.S. sions (last updated Sept. 26, 2017). The latter figure is even higher if one includes oil refineries. Id. energy system: “fuel switching of end uses to elec- 5. EIA, Carbon Intensity of Energy Use Is Lowest in U.S. Industrial and Elec- tric Power Sectors, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31012 tricity and other low-carbon supplies.” The goal is to (“Carbon intensities reflect the consumption-weighted average of the car- shift 80%-95% of the miles driven from gasoline to bon intensities of the primary fuels consumed in each sector.”). 6. EIA, Natural Gas Expected to Surpass Coal in Mix of Fuel Used for U.S. Power energy sources like electricity and hydrogen. Relying Generation in 2016, Today in Energy, Mar. 16, 2015, https://www.eia.gov/ upon the DDPP analysis, this Article, excerpted from todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25392. 7. Power Sector, supra note 1. Michael B. Gerrard & John C. Dernbach, eds., Legal 8. The EIA defines LDV to Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States include passenger and fleet cars and trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds or less. Light-duty vehicle (forthcoming in 2018 from ELI Press), addresses that energy consumption can be influenced by vehicle fuel economy or challenge as applied to light-duty vehicles such as cars through passenger behavior and vehicle use. LDV fuel efficiency, the number of vehicles on the road (vehicle stock and new sales and SUVs. each year), and the vehicle mix between cars and light-duty trucks are key factors that determine fuel consumption. Driving behavior, distance traveled, and driver response to fuel price and vehicle price also influence energy consumption by LDVs. 48 ELR 10596 ENVIRONMENTAL LAW REPORTER 7-2018 Copyright © 2018 Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, DC. Reprinted with permission from ELR®, http://www.eli.org, 1-800-433-5120. tation GHG emissions.9 As such, LDVs are an important Other technologies can be used to power these vehicles, sector for decarbonization efforts. The Deep Decarbon- including electric motors and hydrogen fuel cells, but a ization Pathways Project (DDPP) authors anticipate two number of barriers have limited their development (see changes required for our LDV fleet by 2050: (1) increased below in Part II). Of the 230 million LDVs on the road in fuel economy standards in excess of 100 miles per gallon the United States today, electric and hybrid vehicles repre- (mpg); and (2) deployment of approximately 300 million sent well under 1%.15 On an annual sales basis, EV sales still alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to shift 80%-95% of the lag far behind ICE sales. For instance, of the 17.55 million miles driven from gasoline to low-carbon fuels.10 passenger vehicles sold in the United States in 2016,16 less Relying upon the 2015 DDPP analysis and its Mixed than 160,000 of them were EVs.17 This part will describe Scenario,11 which assumes an equal blend of electric, four categories of LDVs and their relative contributions to hybrids, and hydrogen vehicles, this Article addresses U.S. GHG emissions. these two specific challenges and develops legal path- ways to achieve these goals. It begins with a brief primer A. LDV Primer on LDV types, their GHG contributions, and the DDPP authors’ projections for an LDV future (Part I). Part II then LDVs can function based on a number of technologies. describes the existing legal regime for LDVs and the barri- The majority of LDVs in the United States have ICEs.18 ers to achieving more extensive alternative vehicle deploy- Alternative types of LDVs include fully battery electric ment. Finally, Part III advances legal pathways to achieve vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in the light-duty decarbonization goals by 2050. hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) (collectively referred to as “alternative I. The Role of LDVs in Decarbonization fuel vehicles,” or “AFVs,” in this Article).19 Each of these types will be described below, as well as their relative GHG LDVs are the predominant source of GHG and carbon contributions and their role in the DDPP assessment. dioxide emissions in the transportation sector.12 LDVs, as defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1. ICEs (EPA) for emissions purposes, include passenger vehi- cles such as cars, minivans, light trucks, and SUVs that Vehicles powered by ICEs were first developed for motor have a maximum gross vehicle weight rating of less than transport at the end of the 19th century.20 Since then, ICE 8,500 pounds.13 vehicles (ICVs) have dominated the transportation sec- LDVs are heavily dominated by conventional internal tor.21 Without significant policy or market changes, their combustion engines (ICEs) that emit approximately 20 dominance is likely to continue.22 They are familiar, easy pounds of carbon dioxide for every gallon of gas burned.14 2016/03/29/upshot/overlooked-tool-to-fight-climate-change-a-tweak-in- EIA, Light-Duty Vehicles’ Share of Transportation Energy Use Is Projected to fuel-standards.html. Fall, Today in Energy, July 18, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/ 15. DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technolo- detail.php?id=17171. gies Office: Advanced Combustion Engines, http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/ 9. The White House, supra note 3, at 41 fig. 4.9. vehicle-technologies-office-advanced-combustion-engines (last visited Feb. 10. James H. Williams et al., Energy and Environmental Economics, 25, 2018). In mid-2016, the United States had almost half a million EVs on Inc. et al., Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States, the road. US 2050 Report, Volume 1: Technical Report xiv (2015) [hereinafter 16. Bill Vlasic, Record 2016 for U.S. Auto Industry; Long Road Back May Be DDPP], http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ at End, N.Y.