CONTENTS i Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific ii CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ! " O ! " #!$%&" #'' " ' ' " (" )" " ") * ') ) + , & # $ " "% &'()'# * # + " &, -$ ''..// -)" ) !0 ) This book is also available as an e-book. CONTENTS iii Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific How Can Countries Adapt? Edited by Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Meinhard Breiling Selvarajah Pathmarajah Vangimalla R. Reddy iv CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Copyright © Asian Development Bank Institute, 2012 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. First published in 2012 by SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd B1/I-1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044, India www.sagepub.in SAGE Publications Inc 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320, USA SAGE Publications Ltd 1 Oliver’s Yard, 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP, United Kingdom SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 33 Pekin Street #02-01 Far East Square Singapore 048763 Published by Vivek Mehra for SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd, typeset in 10/13 pt Minion Pro by Star Compugraphics Private Limited, Delhi and printed at G. H. Prints Pvt Ltd, New Delhi. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Available ISBN: 978-81-321-0894-8 (HB) The SAGE Team: Sharel Simon, Puja Narula Nagpal, Amrita Saha and Anju Saxena Contents List of Tables ix List of Figures xi List of Abbreviations xv Foreword by Masahiro Kawai xxi Acknowledgments xxiii Introduction 1 Worapot Manupipatpong and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi PART I Climate Change Challenges, Scenarios, Risks, and Planning Tools 1. Review of the Economics of Climate Change on Southeast Asia 9 Tae Yong Jung 2. Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia 17 Fan Zhai and Juzhong Zhuang 3. Monitoring the Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Food Security 36 Vangimalla R. Reddy, David H. Fleisher, Dennis J. Timlin, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, K. Raja Reddy, and Yang Yang 4. Framework Conditions for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Natural Resource Planning 47 Venkatachalam Anbumozhi PART II Evolving Adaptation Measures in the Region 5. Valuing Natural Resource Management: Climate Change Adaptation in the European Union 69 Meinhard Breiling 6. Monitoring the Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Water Security 80 Zhijun Chen vi CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 7. Water Management Practices and Climate Change Adaptation: South Asian Experiences 104 Selvarajah Pathmarajah 8. Adaptation Measures for Climate Change in Japan 125 Toshio Okazumi and Eiji Otsuki 9. Climate Change Impacts on the Mekong River Delta 130 Shigeko Haruyama 10. Integrated Approach to Climate Change Impact Assessment on Agricultural Production Systems 138 Tsugihiro Watanabe 11. Adaptation in Urban Settings: Asian Experiences 156 Jostacio M. Lapitan PART III Successful Programs and Measures of Adaptation in Vulnerable Areas 12. Flood Disasters and Warning Systems in Northern Thailand 171 Thada Sukhapunnaphan and Taikan Oki 13. Integrated Flood Analysis System: An Efficient Tool to Implement Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems 178 Kazuhiko Fukami, Tomonobu Sugiura, Seishi Nabesaka, Go Ozawa, Jun Magome, and Takahiro Kawakami 14. Effectiveness of Early Warning Systems and Monitoring Tools in the Mekong Basin 196 Guillaume Lacombe, Chu Thai Hoanh, and Thierry Valéro 15. Insurance Solutions to Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific 206 Yuri Murayama, Harumi Yashiro, and Hideki Kimura 16. Community-based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons and Findings 217 Masanori Kobayashi and Ikuyo Kikusawa 17. Learning to Adapt: Case of Gender Alliance in Japan 230 Midori Aoyagi 18. Structural and Nonstructural Adaptation Measures of Climate Change in India 235 Agastin Baulraj CONTENTS vii PART IV Action Plan for Policymakers and Planners to Reduce Risk Impact 19. Adapting to Climate Change: Developing Local Capacity 253 Srikantha Herath 20. Financing Adaptation Responses: Disaster Mitigation in Viet Nam 262 Bui Duong Nghieu 21. Economic Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture at Farm Level 276 Kuppannan Palanisami, Coimbatore Ramarao Ranganathan, Samiappan Senthilnathan, and Sevi Govindaraj 22. Supporting Climate Action Plans: The Role of the Adaptation Knowledge Platform 287 Serena Fortuna PART V Capacity Building Strategies for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation 23. Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity in the Asia and Pacific Region: Opportunities for Innovation and Experimentation 295 Venkatachalam Anbumozhi 24. Current Status of Adaptation Planning in the Region 320 Tomonori Sudo 25. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning 328 Youssef Nassef Conclusions, Policy Implications, and the Way Forward 338 Robert Dobias, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Vangimalla R. Reddy, and Meinhard Breiling Glossary 349 About the Editors and Contributors 351 Index 355 viii CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC List of Tables 2.1 Projected Climate Changes and Their Impacts on Agricultural Productivity, 2080 21 2.2 Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity, 2080 22 2.3 Impact on Global Welfare and Production, 2080 (% change) 25 2.4 Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change on Southeast Asian Countries, 2080 (% change) 28 2.5 Impacts on Agricultural Production and Trade in Southeast Asian Countries, 2080 (% change) 30 2.6 Impacts of Climate Change under Alternative Baseline Agricultural Productivity, 2080 (% change relative to alternative baseline) 32 4.1 Selected Adaptation Initiatives in Developing Asian Countries 54 4.2 Categorized Estimates of Adaptation Funds (US$ billion) 60 5.1 Spatial Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation 72 5.2 Timing of Climate Change Adaptation Related to Selected Measures 72 6.1 Annual Water Withdrawal by Sector, 2004 83 6.2 Summary of Key Observed Past and Present Climate Trends and Variability 85 6.3 Status of Coral Reefs in Selected Regions of Asia, 2004 87 6.4 Projected Changes in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation in Asia 88 6.5 Vulnerability of Key Sectors to the Impacts of Climate Change in Asia 90 6.6 Regional-scale Impacts of Climate Change by 2080 92 6.7 Typology of Agricultural Water Management Systems 95 6.8 Complete Frameworks and Supporting Toolkits 98 6.9 Water Sector Tools 100 10.1 Simulated Cropping Pattern with Climate and Social Scenarios 152 13.1 Examples of Satellite-based Rainfall Data Products Available on the Internet 183 x CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 13.2 Parameter Classification (PDHM, Global Map) 188 15.1 Natural Disasters, 1975–2007 212 15.2 Challenges to Propagate Climate Insurance in Asia and the Pacific 213 15.3 Public–Private Partnership (PPP) for Climate-related Insurance 215 17.1 Sex versus Age Cross-tabulation 232 18.1 Humanitarian Aid to Selected Asian Countries from 2001 238 18.2 Sources of Long-term Funding and Assistance to Tamil Nadu State 242 18.3 Claims Settled under Weather Insurance Scheme 1999–2000 247 19.1 Effects of Water-using Sectors on Development (WED-AIM) in Sri Lanka with Climate Change Impacts 255 21.1 Mean Values of the Variables Used in the Ricardian Model 281 21.2 Estimated Regression Coefficients of the Ricardian Model 282 21.3 Statistical Test on Effect of Climate Variables on Net Revenue 283 21.4 Marginal Effects of Climate Variables on Net Revenue 283 21.5 HADCM3 Projections for Losses in Net Revenue Per Acre in Different Districts 284 23.1 Overview of Ongoing Adaptation Related Actions and Policies in Country Plans 298 23.2 Capacity Building and Training Indicators for Climate Change Adaptation Mainstreaming 312 25.1 Regional Prioritization of Key Vulnerable Sectors 331 List of Figures 2.1 Impacts of Climate Change on International Prices and World Trade of Agricultural Goods, 2080 26 2.2 Decomposition of Welfare Impacts, 2080 29 2.3 Crop Imports as Percent of Domestic Demand, Southeast Asia, 2010–2080 31 2.4 Grain Self-sufficiency Ratio, Measured as Grain Output as % of Domestic Demand, Southeast Asia, 2010–2080 31 3.1 Linkages among Facets of Climate Change, Drivers of Adaptation, and Mitigation Options 39 4.1 Global Temperature Rise over Time 48 4.2 Projected Impacts of Climate Change 49 4.3 Mainstreaming and Adaptive Capacity Building 56 5.1 Conceptual Framework of Approaches to Climate Adaptation Planning and Their Integration 71 6.1 Number of Water-related Disasters in Different Continents, 1980–2006 81 6.2 Number of Water-related Disaster Fatalities in Different Continents, 1980–2006 81 9.1 Geomorphologic Land Classification Map of Mekong Delta in Viet Nam 132 9.2 Historical Records of the Floods at Selected Locations 135 9.3 Simulation of the Flood Phase under the Sea-level Rise with 0.5 m in Future 136 10.1 Assessment Framework 140 10.2 The Seyhan River Basin of Turkey 142 10.3 Major Components and Paths of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production System in the Seyhan River Basin 143 10.4 Approach Used in Integrated Impact Assessment 144 10.5 Projected Changes in January Precipitation of Turkey in the 2070s 145 xii CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 10.6 Changes in Monthly Average Temperature in the Seyhan River Basin 147 10.7 Changes in Total Snowfall in Volume Equivalent to Water 147 10.8 Changes in Water Resources