The Socio-Political Crisis in the Northwest and Southwest Regions of Cameroon: Assessing the Economic and Social Impacts Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN_CVR.indd 3 6/8/21 11:00 AM The Socio-Political Crisis in the Northwest and Southwest Regions of Cameroon Assessing the Economic and Social Impacts 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 1 6/10/21 9:26 AM © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org First published January 2021. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and con- clusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Cover photo: © Che Charles, the Boyo mountain chain of the North-West Province of Cameroon, and Odilia Hebga, in Bamenda. 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 2 6/10/21 9:26 AM Contents Acknowledgments v Abbreviations vii Executive Summary ix Introduction 1 Background to the Crisis 1 The Analytical Approach and Underpinnings of This Study 3 1. The Northwest and Southwest Regions at the Onset of the Crisis 9 Defining Characteristics of the Crisis in the Northwest and Southwest Regions 10 Fragmentation of Anglophone Groups 10 Deliberate Attacks Against State Targets 12 Long-term Breakdown in Trust 12 Perceptions versus Reality of Marginalization and Exclusion 14 Intergovernmental Relations and Institutional Differences 15 Precrisis Baseline and Trends in Development 17 How Did Cameroon Compare to Its Peers at the Onset of the Crisis? 25 2. Impact of the Crisis 27 Loss of Life and Growing Humanitarian Consequences 27 Physical Damage to Assets 36 Impact on Human Development Outcomes 38 Economic Impacts 45 Crisis of Governance and Growing Pressure on Social Cohesion 49 iii 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 3 6/10/21 9:26 AM 3. The Potential Longer-Term Impacts of a Protracted Conflict 53 4. Conclusions and Implications for the Government and International Partners 63 Rethinking the Delivery of Assistance in Response to Conflict Dynamics 64 Invest in Further Data Collection to Inform Policy Dialogue 65 Move Beyond Development Financing to Address Underlying Grievances and Support Peace 66 References 69 Appendix A. Global Experiences with Addressing Subnational Conflict 75 Appendix B. Indicative Template for Conflict Filter 77 iv Contents 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 4 6/10/21 9:26 AM Acknowledgments This study was conducted by a multidisciplinary team led by Benjamin Burckhart (Senior Social Develop- ment Specialist, Task Team Leader) and Asbjorn Wee (Senior Operations Officer, Task Team Leader). The core team was composed of Rick Emery Tsouck Ibounde (Senior Economist), Caroline Bahnson (Senior Operations Officer), Neelam Verjee (Operations Officer), Elisabeth Rose Keme Etame (Operations Officer), Marine Gassier (Consultant), Olivier Maxime Nkounga Kouam (Consultant), and Carole Ndjitcheu (Team Assistant). The team is grateful for guidance and support from Abdoulaye Seck (Country Director), Aly Rahim (Practice Manager), Xavier Devictor (Manager), Keiko Kubota (Operations Manager), Mazen Bouri (Program Leader), Carine Clert (Program Leader), Issa Diaw (Operations Manager), and Gina Bowen (Senior Operations Offi- cer). The team received valuable comments and advice from peer reviewers: Anne Bakilana (Program Leader), Patrick Barron (Advisor), Yasuhiko Matsuda (Practice Leader), Alvin Etang Ndip (Senior Economist), Harun Onder (Senior Economist), Stavros Stavrou (Senior Social Development Specialist), and Matthew Stephens (Senior Social Development Specialist). The team would also like to extend its gratitude to the Government of Cameroon for its support and contributions to this study, and for comments received on the final draft. The technical work was carried out by an extended team of sector experts composed of Besong Joseph Ne iville Agbor (Senior Financial Sector Specialist), Nadia Belhaj Hassine Belghith (Senior Economist), Lulit Mitik Beyene (Consultant), Ioana Alexandra Botea (Research Analyst), Claire Chase (Senior Economist), Myriam Chaudron (Senior Livestock Specialist), Charles Che (Consultant), Joseph Chenjoh (Consultant), Vincent De Paul Mboutchouang (Education Specialist), David Oliveira De Souza (Senior Health Specialist), Mitja Del Bono (Consultant), Calvin Zebaze Djiofack (Senior Economist), Yohana Dukhan (Senior Health Economist), Laura Frost (Consultant), Soraya Goga (Lead Urban Specialist), Rebekka E. Grun (Senior Economist), Tillmann Heidelk (Consultant), Peter Anthony Holland (Lead Education Specialist), Erkin Mamadaliev (Senior Operations Officer), Fidele Honorine Yobo A Koue Epse Nhiomog (Livestock Specialist), Paul Ningaye (Consultant), Corey Pattison (Social Development Specialist), Amaah Penn (Consultant), Vincent Perrot (Senior Education Specialist), Rakesh Gupta Nichanametla Ramasubbaiah (Consultant), Hamzah Saif (Consultant), Benjamin Stewart (Geographer), Jorge Trevino (Senior Water Resources Management Special- ist), William Shei (Consultant), Bontje Marie Zangerling (Senior Urban Specialist), and Serge Zelezeck (Con- sultant). The team is also grateful for technical support received from the European Space Agency’s Earth Observation for Sustainable Development (EO4SD) initiative’s dedicated activity cluster on fragility, conflict, and security. The team would also like to acknowledge the contributions of the many external parties consulted as part of the process, both in Cameroon and abroad. The study would not have been possible without the information gleaned from studies and interviews with stakeholders, including development partners, donors, private sec- tor, civil society actors, religious leaders, women and youth groups, academics, humanitarian actors and oth- ers, and the team is grateful for their generosity in terms of time and willingness to share data and information on the situation in NWSW. v 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 5 6/10/21 9:26 AM 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 6 6/10/21 9:26 AM Abbreviations ACLED Armed Conflict Location & Event Data AL Advanced Level AGC Ambazonia Governing Council BEPHA Bamenda Ecclesiastical Provincial Health Assistance CEP Certificat d’Etudes Primaires CFAF Communauté Financière Africaine franc CGE Computable General Equilibrium COVID Corona Virus Disease CTD Collectivités Territoriales Décentralisées (Decentralized Territorial Entities) GCE General Certificate of Education GDP Gross Domestic Product ECAM Enquête Camerounaise Auprès des Ménage (Cameroon Household Survey) FDI Foreign Direct Investment FSLC First School Leaving Certificate HCI Human Capital Index HDI Human Development Index IDA International Development Association IDP Internally Displaced Person IG Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia IMC International Medical Corps IOM International Organization of Migration MANAGE Mitigation, Adaptation, and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium MINSANTE Ministère de la Santé Publique (Ministry of Public Health) MIRA Multi-Sector Rapid Assessment MSNA Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment NGO Nongovernmental Organization NPL Nonperforming Loans NSAG Non-State Armed Group NW North-West NWSW North-West/South-West OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs SAM Social Accounting Matrix SW South-West WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene WBG World Bank Group vii 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 7 6/10/21 9:26 AM 75569_ESIA Cameroon_EN.indd 8 6/10/21 9:26 AM Executive Summary More than three years of conflict in Cameroon’s Northwest and Southwest (NWSW) regions have resulted in significant socioeconomic disruption. As of September 2019, the crisis had claimed over 3,000 lives, destroyed over 170 villages, and displaced more than half a million people (ICG 2019b). The humanitarian emergency is severe and growing, as service delivery capacity and systems have been overwhelmed by dis- placement, and humanitarian access has been severely constrained. This study assesses the impact of the crisis on economic and social outcomes as of 2019 in the Northwest and Southwest, in the neighboring regions Littoral and West, and at the national level. The current crisis began with peaceful protests in 2016 and quickly escalated into a full-scale armed con- flict with clear secessionist and criminal elements. The roots of the conflict can be found in the country’s colonial history, as Cameroon inherited two distinct traditions in the wake of independence: one French- oriented and the other British-oriented. There were critical