Company Report: JD.com Inc (JD US) Ray Zhao 赵 睿 公司报告：京东 (JD US) +86 755 23976755 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 1 September 2015 Wait for New Business, ‘Neutral’ 等待新业务，“中性” TJA Research TJA G Jingdong (JD) is the largest online direct seller in China. In 2Q15, JD’s GMV reached RMB114.5 bn, up 81.7% YoY, in which direct sales GMV Rating: Neutral Initial reached RMB64.7 bn, up 65.1% YoY, or up 27.1% qoq; marketplace GMV reached RMB49.8 bn, up 109.2% YoY, or up 35.0% qoq. Orders reached 评级： 中性 (首次覆盖) 305.6 mn, up 86.7% YoY, in which mobile orders accounted for 47% of total orders, up 5 ppt qoq. Annual active buyers reached 118 mn, up 80.3% YoY. 6-18m TP 目标价: US$30.00 Key points: 1) B2C Ecommerce Business model changes. JD is expanding from 3C&White goods category into full category. JD is shifting 价： from direct sales mode to a combination of direct sales mode and ADR price ADR US$25.880 ecommerce marketplace platform mode. JD might increase its investment in logistics. 2) Cooperate with Tencent. Tencent mobile traffic is increasing Stock performance fast and shifting traffic support to JD, which originally went to Yixun.com. 3) 股价表现 Potential in new business. Currently, JD Home and JD Finance might become new growth drivers in the next 2-3 years but might incur higher operational costs in the short run. The PBoC’s new regulation policy on China 3rd party payment industry might become a potential obstacle for JD Finance. Target Price is USD30.00 and investment rating is ‘Neutral’. JD’s free cash flow was very tight and JD might seek financing in the near future. Our FY15-17 non GAAP net profit forecasts are RMB64 mn, RMB522 mn, and RMB691 mn. Our TP is set at USD30.00, representing 1.4x 2015E PS and 0.9x 2016E PS. 京东是中国最大的自营电商。2Q15，京东 GMV 达到 RMB1,145 亿，同比增 81.7%，其 中自营 GMV 达到 RMB647 亿，同比增 65.1%，季环比增 27.1%；电商平台 GMV 达 RMB498 亿，同比增长 109.2%，季环比增 35.0%。总订单达到 305.6 百万单，同比增 ） 86.7%，其中移动订单占总订单的 47%，季环比升 5 ppt。年度活跃买家达 118 百万，同 比增 80.3%。 Change in ADR Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y ADR 变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 JD US 要点：1）B2C 电商模式在改变。京东自营从传统 3C 家电向全品类扩张，同时扩大了电 Abs. % 商第三方平台。未来京东可能要持续加大对仓储物流的投入。2）与腾讯合作。腾讯移动 绝对变动 (21.65) (25.55) (18.92) % 京东（ Rel. % to NASDAQ index 流量增长很快，并将导入易迅的流量全部导入京东。3）新业务有潜力。京东到家和京东 (15.39) (18.94) (17.37) 相对纳指变动 % 金融将成为未来 2-3 年京东的新增长点，但是短期可能会带来经营成本上升。央行发布 Avg. ADR price(US$) 28.15 32.29 28.87 平均 ADR 价（美元） 新的第三方支付行业管理办法可能会成为京东金融发展的潜在障碍。 . Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International Inc. JD.com 目标价为 USD30.00, 投资评级为“中性”。公司目前自由资金链偏紧，短期可能存在融 资需求。我们 FY15-17 年的 Non GAAP 盈利预测为人民币 64 百万、人民币 522 百万、 和人民币 691 百万。目标价 30.00 美元，相当于 1.4 倍的 2015 年预测市销率和 0.9 倍 2016 年预测市销率。 Year End Turnover Net Profit Earnings /ADR Earnings /ADR PER BV/ADR PBR DP/ADR Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每 ADS 净利 每 ADS 净利变动 市盈率 每 ADS 净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2013A 69,340 (50) (0.066) (97.5) n.a. 2.713 59.2 0.000 0.0 (2.7) 2014A 115,002 (4,996) (4.130) 6,192.1 n.a. 30.994 5.2 0.000 0.0 (25.3) 2015F 182,580 (2,237) (1.608) (61.1) n.a. 25.344 6.3 0.000 0.0 (6.1) 2016F 274,323 (1,771) (1.212) (24.6) n.a. 22.924 7.0 0.000 0.0 (5.2) 2017F 389,107 (1,523) (1.012) (16.5) n.a. 21.245 7.6 0.000 0.0 (4.7) Richard Liu 19.4%/82.8% ADR in issue (m) 总 ADR 数 (m) 1,367.6 Major shareholder/Voting power 大股东 /投票权 Market cap. (US$ m) 市值 (US$ m) 36,610.5 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 17.5 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 10,688.7 FY14 Net gearing FY14 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash 52 Weeks high/low (US$) 52 周高/低 38.000 / 21.780 FY15 PS FY15 年市销率 1.4 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 29 TABLE OF CONTENTS Company Profile .................................................................................................................................... 3 Milestones .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Management ...................................................................................................................................... 4 1 September2015 Shareholder Structure ........................................................................................................................ 4 JD B2C Retail Ecommerce .................................................................................................................... 5 Retail B2C Ecommerce ..................................................................................................................... 5 Retail Ecommerce Competition ......................................................................................................... 9 JD Diversified Development ............................................................................................................... 13 JD Home .......................................................................................................................................... 14 JD Finance ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Category Expansion ........................................................................................................................ 19 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 22 Revenue ........................................................................................................................................... 22 Gross Profit ...................................................................................................................................... 22 Operating Profit ................................................................................................................................ 23 Net Profit .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Quarterly Results Projection ............................................................................................................ 26 Valuation .............................................................................................................................................. 27 Financial Statements ........................................................................................................................... 28 ） JD US 京东（ JD.com Inc. JD.com Company Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 29 Company Profile Jingdong (JD US) (“JD”) is the largest online direct sales company in China. JD was one of the largest IT chain store distributors in Beijing Zhongguancun (中关村) and in 2006 JD turned to online 3C product distributors. JD’s core strategy is to provide low price quality products to customers with fast express service and satisfying after sales service. JD’s slogan is “selection, speed, quality, value”. In 3M10, JD began to provide 211 delivery services: if a buyer places an order before 11:00 1 September2015 a.m., the package could be delivered in the evening; if a buyer places an order before 11:00 p.m., the package could be delivered in the next day. In terms of transaction volume, JD had 23.5% market share in China B2C ecommerce in 1Q15, according to iResearch, a third-party market research firm. JD provides consumers with an enjoyable online retail experience. Through JD’s content-rich and user-friendly website www.jd.com and mobile applications, JD offers a wide selection of authentic products at competitive prices which are delivered in a speedy and reliable manner. JD also offers convenient online and in-person payment options and comprehensive customer services. In order to have better control over fulfillment and to ensure customer satisfaction, JD has built up their own nationwide fulfillment infrastructure and last-mile delivery network. JD has executed diversification strategy to JD Finance and JD Home. Currently, JD Finance has 6 channels and JD Home has just started business in 1st tier cities. JD Finance and JD Home will be JD’s new growth driver in next 2~3 years. Milestones JD expands categories through M&A and cooperation with strategic partners. In 5M10, JD acquired Qianxun.com from Korean SK Group and began to expand to clothes and shoes category. In 11M14, JD began to sell books. Tencent (00700.HK) announced to inject its QQ Wanggou and Paipai.com into JD for 350 mn shares, representing 15% of its pre-IPO shares in 2Q14. Bitauto, JD.com and Tencent announced strategic partnership in Jan 2015. Bitauto (BITA US), a leading provider of Internet content and marketing services for China's fast-growing automotive industry, JD.com, and Tencent jointly announced that they have entered into definitive agreements. JD.com and Tencent has made investments in Bitauto totaling approximately USD1.3 billion in cash and resources, and investments totaling USD250 million in cash in YiXin Capital Limited ("YiXin Capital"), a subsidiary of Bitauto primarily engaged in e-commerce-related automotive financing platform business. Upon completion of the transactions, the three companies will work together to provide enhanced online automotive transaction services to car buyers across China. Under the terms of the agreements, JD.com has invested a combination of USD400 million in cash and approximately USD750 million of resources, including exclusive access to the new and used car ） channels on JD.com's e-commerce sites including mobile apps and additional support from its key platforms, as consideration for