The Status of Democracy in Trinidad and Tobago: A citizens’view March 15th, 2010 University of West Indies Sample Design Methodology • Face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers • National probability samples of 1500 respondents 18 years and older • Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) is used at every stage of sampling • Sample is stratified to ensure that all major demographic segments of the population are included in the sample • Estimated Error: +/- 3% with 95% confidence interval • Interviews were carried out by The institute of International Relations (IIR) at UWI Sample Description None 0.3% Primary 16.3% Higher 34.9% Female Male 50.0% 50.0% Secondary 48.5% Sex Education Level Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP . Tobago 66+ 3.9% 6.9% West 56-65 16-25 23.6% 9.9% 25.3% South 30.2% 46-55 16.4% East 23.1% 26-35 36-45 24.7% Central 16.8% 19.2% Regions Age Source:AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Support for Democracy as System Agreement with Churchill? “Democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?” 1234567 Strongly disagree Strongly agree Low Support High Support Support for Democracy in T&T Substantial proportions of citizens Low Support agree with 31.0% Churchill High Support 69.0% Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Support for Costa Rica 80.4 Democracy Panama 75.5 in T&T in Venezuela 74.0 Comparative Guyana 72.9 Perspective Nicaragua 71.3 Trinidad & Tobago 69.7 Dominican Republic 68.6 Mexico 66.8 El Salvador 64.1 Paraguay 63.3 Guatemala 62.8 Peru 60.1 0 20 40 60 80 Support for Democracy 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Who are more likely to have “high” support for democracy in T&T? 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.65 Mean Predicted Probability Predicted Mean Mean predicted probability predicted Mean 0.62 of having high supportofhigh having for democracy of high having support for democracy 0.60 0.60 None Primary Secondary Higher 18-30 years old 31-45 years old 46-60 years old 61 and older Education Level Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP 0.75 0.80 0.70 0.75 0.65 0.70 Mean predicted probability predicted Mean Mean predicted probability predicted Mean ofhighsupport having for democracy of having high support for democracy 0.60 0.65 Income not enough, Income not enough, Income just enough Income good enough, having hard time stretched can save Central South East West Tobago Perception of Family Economic Situation Region Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Results significant at p.<0.05; control variables included Satisfaction with Democracy Satisfaction with the way democracy works in T&T PN4. In general, would you say that you are Very satisfied very satisfied, 1.8% Very Dissatisfied satisfied, dissatisfied 11.6% or very dissatisfied Satisfied with the way 43.2% democracy works in Trinidad & Tobago? Dissatisfied 43.3% (1) Very satisfied (2) Satisfied (3) Dissatisfied Level of Satisfaction with The Way Democracy Works in T&T (4) Very dissatisfied Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP (88) DK (98)DA Satisfaction Panama 62.5 with Costa Rica 62.5 Democracy El Salvador 54.7 in T&T in Dominican Republic 50.7 Comparative Paraguay 49.9 Perspective Nicaragua 48.6 Guatemala 47.8 Venezuela 46.3 Peru 44.7 Trinidad & Tobago 44.7 Mexico 44.6 Guyana 43.8 0 20 40 60 Satisfaction with Democracy 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP System Support Index Items used to create “System Support” Index • B1. To what extent do you think the courts A lot in (country) guarantee a fair trial? 7 • B2. ¿To what extent do you respect the 6 political institutions of (country)? • B3. To what extent do you think that 5 citizens’ basic rights are well protected by the political system of (country)? 4 • B4. To what extent do you feel proud of living under the political system of 3 (country)? 2 • B6. To what extent do you think that one should support the political system of (country)? 1 Not at all Support for the Costa Rica 63.2 Political Panama 60.2 System in El Salvador 58.7 T&T in Mexico 56.8 Comparative Guyana 54.9 Dominican Republic 53.9 Perspective Nicaragua 51.7 Guatemala 49.6 Venezuela 49.0 Peru 46.8 Paraguay 46.3 Trinidad & Tobago 44.0 0 20 40 60 System Support 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Who supports the political systemy in T&T? 46 • 52 45 50 44 48 43 46 42 44 support system predicted Mean 41 Mean predicted system support system predicted Mean 42 40 central south tobago east west 40 Region 18-30 years old 31-45 years old 46-60 years old 61 and older Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP 48 46 44 42 Mean predicted system support predicted system Mean 40 38 Income not enough, Income not enough, Income just enough Income good enough, having hard time stretched can save Perception of Family Economic Situation Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Results significant at p.<0.05; control variables included Economic Crisis and its Relationship on Democracy Perception of the Economic Crisis CRISIS1. Some say that our country is suffering a very serious economic crisis, others say that we are suffering a crisis but it is not very serious, while others say that there isn’t any economic crisis. What do you think? [Read options] (1) We are suffering a very serious economic crisis (2) We are suffering a crisis but it is not very serious, or (3) No economic crisis [Go to VB1] (88) DK [Go to VB1] (98) DA [Go to VB1] CRISIS2. Who is the most to blame for the current economic crisis in our country from among the following: [READ LIST, MARK ONLY ONE RESPONSE] (01) The previous administration (02) The current administration (03) Ourselves, the Belizeans (04) The rich people of our country (05) The problems of democracy (06) The rich countries [Accept also Unites States, England, France, Germany, and Japan] (07) The economic system of the country, or (08) Never have thought about it (77) [Don’t read] Other (88) [Don’t read] DK (98) [Don’t read] DR (99) N/A Is There an Economic Crisis? Trinidad & Tobago Latin America and the Caribbean No economic No economic crisis crisis 5.7% 9.8% We are suffering a very We are suffering serious economic crisis a very serious 46.2% economic crisis 47.1% We are suffering We are suffering a crisis but it is a crisis but it is not very serious not very serious 43.9% 47.2% Economic Crisis Perception Percepion of Economic Crisis Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Who is to blame for the crisis? Trinidad & Tobago Latin America and the Caribbean Other 15.9% The current The economic Government system of 24.2% the country The current 8.6% government Other 44.0% 40.7% The rich countries Ourselves, 8.9% the citizens of the country 13.2% Ourselves, the citizens The rich of the country The Economic countries 22.6% system of 8.3% the country 13.5% Who is the most to blame for the current economic crisis? Who is the most to blame for the current economic crisis? Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Economic Crisis and Satisfaction with Democracy Trinidad & Tobago Latin America and the Caribbean 61.5 49.0 60 53.7 50 44.8 41.8 50 45.1 40 40 30 30 20 20 System Support System Satisfaction with Democracy with Satisfaction 10 10 0 0 We are suffering We are suffering No economic We are suffering We are suffering No economic a very serious a crisis but it is not crisis a very serious a crisis but it is crisis economic crisis very serious economic crisis not very serious Perception of Economic Crisis Perception of Economic Crisis 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Economic Crisis and System Support Trinidad & Tobago Latin America and the Caribbean 49.0 59.5 50 44.8 60 56.0 41.8 49.1 50 40 40 30 30 20 System Support System System Support System 20 10 10 0 0 We are suffering We are suffering There is not a very serious a crisis but it is an economic crisis We are suffering We are suffering No economic' economic crisis not very serious a very serious a crisis but it is not crisis" economic crisis very serious Perception of Economic Crisis Perception of Economic Crisis 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Perception of Insecurity and its Impact on Democrac Perception of insecurity in T&T AOJ11. Speaking of the neighborhood where you live and thinking of the possibility of being Very unsafe assaulted or robbed, do 6.0% Very safe Somewhat 24.4% you feel very safe, unsafe somewhat safe, somewhat 15.1% unsafe or very unsafe? (1) Very safe (2) Somewhat safe Somewhat safe 54.5% (3) Somewhat unsafe (4) Very unsafe Perception of insecurity (88) DK (98)DR Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Perception of Peru 53.8 insecurity in El Salvador 49.7 T&T in Venezuela 49.2 Comparative Dominican Republic 46.5 Perspective Mexico 43.5 Paraguay 41.7 Guatemala 39.9 Nicaragua 38.9 Panama 36.1 Trinidad & Tobago 33.9 Guyana 33.8 Costa Rica 32.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Perception of Insecurity 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Who are more likely to feel somewhat or very unsafe in T&T? 0.25 0.20 0.15 Mean predicted predicted probabilityMean of feeling somewhat or very unsafe veryor of feeling somewhat 0.10 Tobago South West East Central Region Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Perception of insecurity undermines democratic legitimacy 46 44 42 40 System Support System 38 36 very safe somewhat safe somewhat unsafe very unsafe Perception of Insecurity Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP Corruption and its Impact on Democracy Perception of Corruption in T&T EXC7.