UNIVERSITY OF OTTAWA Geographic Information Systems and System Dynamics - Modelling the Impacts of Storm Damage on Coastal Communities Master’s Program in Systems Science Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies Maxwell D Hartt Supervisor: Dan Lane, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa © Maxwell D Hartt, Ottawa, Canada, 2011 Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ 6 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. 7 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... 9 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................... 12 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Background and Motivation ............................................................................................ 13 1.2 Research Question and Objectives ................................................................................ 15 1.3 Thesis Outline ....................................................................................................................... 16 2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................................ 18 2.1 Coastal Vulnerability and Threats ................................................................................. 18 2.2 Geographic Information Systems .................................................................................. 22 2.3 System Dynamics ................................................................................................................. 25 2.4 Spatial System Dynamics .................................................................................................. 29 2.5 Charlottetown ....................................................................................................................... 32 2.5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 32 2.5.2 Notable Studies on Charlottetown’s Storm History .................................. 33 2.5.3 Historical Storm Damages .................................................................................. 39 2.5.4 Charlottetown Sea-Level Rise ............................................................................ 46 2.5.5 Charlottetown Data ............................................................................................... 48 2.5.6 Connecting with the Participants ..................................................................... 48 2.6 Summary................................................................................................................................. 50 3. Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 54 3.1 Model Components ............................................................................................................. 54 3.1.1 Community Data Profile ...................................................................................... 56 3.1.2 GIS Model .................................................................................................................. 61 3.1.3 SD Model and SSD Model .................................................................................... 63 2 3.2 Application ............................................................................................................................. 66 3.3 Assess Impacts ..................................................................................................................... 66 4. Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 68 4.1 Charlottetown Status Quo ................................................................................................ 68 4.1.1 Environmental Landmarks ................................................................................. 69 4.1.2 Economic Landmarks ........................................................................................... 72 4.1.3 Social Demographics ............................................................................................. 76 4.1.4 Cultural Landmarks ............................................................................................... 79 4.2 Storm Scenario Definitions .............................................................................................. 80 4.2.1 General Outline of Storm Scenarios ................................................................ 81 4.2.2 Historical Storms for Charlottetown .............................................................. 83 4.2.3 Storm Scenarios by Maximum Observed Water Level and Damages . 85 4.2.4 Lengths of Storm Scenarios ................................................................................ 88 4.3 Storm Scenario Impacts .................................................................................................... 89 4.3.1 Storm Scenario I ..................................................................................................... 90 4.3.2 Storm Scenario II .................................................................................................... 91 4.2.3 Storm Scenario III .................................................................................................. 99 4.3.4 Storm Scenario IV .................................................................................................. 99 4.3.5 Storm Scenario V ..................................................................................................106 4.3.6 Storm Scenario VI ................................................................................................107 4.3.7 Comparing and Interpolating Scenario Impacts ......................................115 4.4 ‘Assets At Risk’ Analysis ..................................................................................................118 4.4.1 Assets at Risk Baseline Analysis .....................................................................119 4.4.2 Assets at risk Comparisons ..............................................................................127 4.5 Estimated Storm Damages .............................................................................................135 4.5.1 Media Reports, Insurance Claims and Government Payouts ...............137 4.5.2 Estimated Damage Intervals ............................................................................144 4.6 GIS Storm Simulation Model with Damages Report ............................................147 4.7 System Dynamics ...............................................................................................................151 3 4.7.1 Model Considerations: Ideal versus Actual ................................................152 4.7.2 Model Description ................................................................................................153 4.7.2 The Links .................................................................................................................156 4.7.3 Direct Damages .....................................................................................................157 4.7.4 Direct Damages in STELLA ...............................................................................159 4.7.5 Total Damages in STELLA .................................................................................160 4.8 Summary...............................................................................................................................162 5. Results ...............................................................................................................................................163 5.1 Model Process .....................................................................................................................163 5.3 Summary of Trials .............................................................................................................166 5.3 Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................................................169 5.4 Summary of Results ..........................................................................................................175 6. Recommendations for Further Research .............................................................................178 6.1 Data .........................................................................................................................................178 6.2 System Dynamics ...............................................................................................................180 6.3 Spatial System Dynamics ................................................................................................181 6.3 Extreme Weather Events ................................................................................................182