Case 1 Bangladesh By Adam Day UN Photo/Kibae Park ocated in the world’s largest Bangladesh. Examining the major trends river delta, Bangladesh’s fertile and scientific findings on environmental territory and coastal waters changes across the country, it investigates L sustain an extraordinarily the extent to which those changes may dense and fast-growing population. be exacerbating underlying tensions, With a majority of Bangladeshis living in creating new disputes over resources coastal and riverine areas, and a heavy or increasing the resort to violence dependency on fragile agricultural crops, in particular communities. The study it is also one of the most vulnerable also examines the Government’s countries to environmental shocks. attempts to adapt to climate change in Bangladesh, asking how State-led Here, climate change is already having an adaptation efforts may have mitigated unmistakable impact. Rising temperatures conflict risks. Drawing on interviews with have dramatically increased annual in-country experts, the study describes river flooding, displacing hundreds of the UN’s strategy for supporting climate thousands of Bangladeshis every year; adaptation in Bangladesh, focusing on higher sea levels are causing greater saline efforts that reduce risks of violence. content in the groundwater; increasingly The analysis suggests that the UN’s severe tropical cyclones have damaged prevention challenge in Bangladesh is arable land and exacerbated inland intimately related to climate change, inundation; and more erratic rainfall has requiring tailored strategies to support meant the agricultural sector has swung inclusive and sustainable governance between droughts and floods. Facing the responses in the face of rapidly escalating certainty of continued temperature rises environmental risks. globally, and already feeling the impact of regional tensions, Bangladesh’s Prime The study proceeds in four parts: (1) the Minister has called climate change an impact of climate change on Bangladesh; “existential threat” to her country.82 (2) how climate-related changes are affecting the risks of violent conflict; (3) the This case study explores the extent to response by the Government and the UN; which climate change may be impacting and (4) lessons and recommendations. the risks of violence and insecurity in 21 I Climate Change in Bangladesh angladesh presents a complex crucial nutrients for the farmers living along ecosystem for climate change analysis, their banks. Flooding has long been a regular B where macro-level events can play out seasonal occurrence across much of the territory in highly differentiated ways at the local level of Bangladesh, with unusually large floods taking and where various factors interact in dynamic place roughly every twenty years for much of the and unpredictable ways. Broadly, climate change last century.84 In recent decades, however, many is impacting the country in three interrelated of Bangladesh’s riverine areas have experienced areas: (1) riverine erosion and flooding; (2) unusually heavy flooding, resulting in the erosion the effects of rising sea levels, particularly of enormous swathes of riverbank land.85 The salinization of the groundwater in littoral frequency of above normal floods has shown a areas; and (3) increasingly extreme weather steadily increasing trend over the past 50 years, patterns, including cyclones. These climatic including two floods considered “catastrophic” trends have combined and contributed to and four of them “exceptional.”86 large-scale population movements from rural to urban areas, significant air pollution in cities, Heavier flooding is caused by a combination denuding of hillsides in contested territories of of environmental factors: significantly heavier the country and a dramatic loss of livelihood rainfall during Bangladesh’s rainy season, faster for large numbers of Bangladeshis. This section glacial melting at the source of major rivers and explores the environmental trends as a first step extreme storms and cyclones.87 Increased rainfall in understanding how they might be contributing in the upper basins of the major rivers, combined to increased risks of insecurity. with temperature increases up to 2°Celsius is expected to increase river runoff from the Ganges by nearly 20 per cent in the coming decade, while several scientific projections Changing rivers suggest far more frequent catastrophic flooding across all the major rivers in the very Bangladesh is located at the world’s largest near future.88 There is broad consensus across delta, crisscrossed by hundreds of rivers studies of Bangladesh and the experts consulted that support the livelihoods of much of the for this report that these trends toward larger, country’s population.83 These rivers carry silt more frequent flooding and riverbank erosion from glacial mountains southwards, depositing directly result from global warming. 22 The consequences of increasing riverbank level rises are growing at a considerably faster erosion have been dramatic. At least 20 of rate than the global average.100 During peak the 64 districts in Bangladesh experience rainy season, sea levels swell still higher as huge significant riverbank erosion and enormous quantities of water flow from the major rivers loss of arable land annually.89 According to one outward. This combination of geography and study, floods inundate between 20-70 per cent environmental change makes Bangladesh one of of the country’s landmass each year,90 while a the most vulnerable countries in the world when single flood in 2007 submerged over two million it comes to the effect of sea level rises. hectares of cropland, destroyed 85,000 homes and caused more than 1,000 deaths.91 More The impact of rising sea levels includes extreme than six million inhabitants of the so-called inundation and flooding in coastal areas, coastal chars of Bangladesh — the various sandbars, erosion and saltwater intrusion into ground islands, and other temporary land areas in and surface water, with impacts on coastal riparian zones — are increasingly under direct ecosystems. Saline intrusion can have immediate threat by flooding.92 Poor, highly dependent health impacts — for example, 20 million people upon arable land and with few viable coping living in coastal areas are affected by high saline mechanisms, the riverine farming communities levels in their drinking water.101 It is already of Bangladesh are extraordinarily vulnerable to having a broader impact on the mangrove the rise of floodwaters, especially the extreme ecosystems that provides livelihood to millions flooding that is occurring more frequently of Bangladeshis.102 In some parts of the country, now.93 Recent reports have drawn a strong saline intrusion has already penetrated more link between riverine erosion and poverty rates than 100 kilometers inland.103 in Bangladesh.94 Saltwater intrusion has a direct and negative The result has been a dramatic surge in flood- impact on agriculture, a particularly troubling driven migration across Bangladesh. During the trend given that saltwater has already reached 2007 extreme flood, for example, 3,000 people 26 per cent of Bangladesh’s landmass and set per day relocated to Dhaka and most have not to increase to 55 per cent by 2050.104 A range returned to their former homes.95 According to of studies demonstrate significant agricultural one major study, at least 400,000 Bangladeshis productivity losses from rising soil and river move to Dhaka each year, more than 80 per cent salinity resulting from sea level change.105 of whom attribute their move to environmental Rice paddies in particular — a major source of causes.96 Displaced people now make up more income and food security for Bangladesh — than 80 per cent of the urban population of are extremely susceptible to changes in saline Bangladesh, the vast majority working in the levels and are already suffering shortfalls due to informal sector and residing in insecure slums.97 saltwater encroachment.106 Women and children While other factors — such as the economic face particular risks from saltwater erosion, shifts of production to cities — may also play including to health and livelihoods.107 a role, climate change is certainly an important contributing factor to urbanization. As with riverbank erosion, increasing salinity is contributing to larger and faster migration from rural agricultural zones into major urban areas.108 Forced to leave areas with low crop Rising seas yields, farmers are unable to replace their incomes in rural areas and have overwhelmingly Bangladesh is an extremely low-lying country turned to cities to eke out an income. This also with most of its landmass within three meters appears to be accelerating. Some studies predict of sea level and much of its population living a sea level rise of up to 125 centimeters within in coastal areas.98 Roughly 30 per cent of the the coming century, which would effectively country’s cultivable land is in coastal areas, and drown the southern half of Bangladesh if no thus, impacted by sea level changes.99 Tidal data action is taken.109 When combined with other along the Bangladeshi coast indicates that sea environmental changes — especially a drier Climate Change in Bangladesh 23 UN Photo/Kibae Park Water is supplied by the military in Old Dhaka. dry season — the salinity levels of much of the and devastated the country’s infrastructure.112 arable coastal land may presage the decline of Severe cyclones over the past ten years have the agricultural