Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHS IV THE VENEZUELAN REGIONAL STATES VI POLITICAL MAP OF VENEZUELA VII RISKY BUSINESS VIII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS XII INTRODUCTION: VENEZUELA´S POLITICAL SYSTEM 1 DECENTRALIZATION IN LATIN AMERICA 4 WHY DECENTRALIZATION IN 1989? 6 PARTYARCHY 7 DECENTRALIZATION TO CONFRONT THE PARTYARCHIC CRISIS 10 PURPOSE 13 LITERATURE, ARGUMENTS FOR THE TOPIC AND OPERATIONALIZATION 19 METHODOLOGICAL STRATEGY AND FIELDWORK 22 BIAS? POLITICAL-METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS 23 STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK AND CONTENTS 25 SOME METHODOLOGICAL POINTS OF DEPARTURE 29 PARTY SYSTEMS AND POLITICAL OPPORTUNITIES 34 THEORIES OF SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AND POLITICAL PROCESSES 35 POLITICAL MOVEMENTS 37 PARTY SYSTEMS AND THEIR TRANSFORMATIONS 39 THE POLITICAL SOCIETY 47 POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY STRUCTURES 50 AUTHORITIES AND CHALLENGERS 54 REPRESSION AND FACILITATION 57 PROTEST CYCLES 59 THE POLITICS MODEL 62 A GAME-THEORETIC SUPPORT 64 SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN LATIN AMERICA 66 THE POPULIST TRADITION 68 POLITICAL POWER AT THE REGIONAL AND LOCAL LEVELS 71 DECENTRALIZATION: CONCEPTUAL DEFINITIONS 72 THE TOCQUEVILLIAN CONTRIBUTION 75 DECENTRALIZATION AND DEMOCRATIZATION 78 THE ARDUOUS MISSION OF SUCCESSFUL DECENTRALIZATION REFORM 82 THE LATIN AMERICAN CENTRALIST TRADITION 85 CAUDILLISMO 88 THEORETICAL SUMMARY 92 I Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. FORMATION OF THE VENEZUELAN PARTY SYSTEM 95 FROM CAUDILLISMO TO PARTY SYSTEM 97 LIMITED PLURALISM (1958-1968): AD AND EL PUNTOFIJISMO 101 THE RIPENING PHASE 105 THE VENEZUELAN TWO-PARTY SYSTEM 109 VENEZUELAN PRESIDENTIAL PARTYARCHY IN COMPARISON 111 PARTYARCHY AND POWER CONCENTRATION 113 PARTY SYSTEM AND CLIENTELISM 115 ATTENUATED BI-PARTYISM 119 MAS (MOVEMENT TOWARDS SOCIALISM) 120 LA CAUSA RADICAL 123 THE LATIN AMERICANIZATION OF VENEZUELA 127 DECENTRALIZATION AND PARTY SYSTEM CHANGE IN VENEZUELA 132 THE PARTY SYSTEM PUT AT STAKE? THE COPRE STATE REFORM 135 DECENTRALIZATION: A PANACEA FOR ALL POLITICAL ILLS? 138 ECONOMIC CRISIS AND POLITICAL OPPORTUNITIES 142 ELECTORAL SYSTEM IN VENEZUELA BEFORE AND AFTER DECENTRALIZATION 145 STRATEGIES WITHIN THE POLITICAL PARTIES TOWARDS DECENTRALIZATION 149 THE ELECTIONS OF 1989 152 DECENTRALIZATION VERSUS PARTYARCHY 154 NEW ACTORS AND ARENAS FOR THE POLITICAL GAME 158 THE ELECTIONS OF 1992 162 FROM TWO-PARTYISM TO MULTI-PARTYISM 166 VENEZUELAN PROTEST CYCLES 166 4F AND DECENTRALIZATION 168 ATTEMPTS TO AMELIORATE DECENTRALIZATION 170 THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 1993 173 DID CAUSA R WIN IN 1993? 178 MAS & CAUSA R: FROM MICRO TO MACRO 180 WHY THE LEFTIST PARTIES SPEARHEAD DECENTRALIZATION 184 DECENTRALIZATION: A COMPLEX AND CONTRADICTORY CHALLENGE 188 THE ELECTIONS OF 1995 192 THE HUGO CHÁVEZ MOVEMENT: MBR-200 197 POLITICAL TENSIONS AND CONFLICTS AT THE REGIONAL AND LOCAL LEVELS 204 FROM PARTYARCHY TO CHAVISMO 209 PROYECTO CARABOBO-VENEZUELA AND IRENE 214 ELECTORAL REFORM AND TRADITIONAL PARTIES IN CRISIS 216 THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS OF 1998 220 CHAVISMO & THE REBELLION OF THE GOVERNORS: 224 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 1998 224 DECENTRALIZATION, CHAVISMO AND THE NEW CONSTITUTION 227 II Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. CHAVISMO, PARTY SYSTEM AND DECENTRALIZATION 233 MEGA-ELECTIONS 2000 233 PRIMERO JUSTICIA: THE CHALLENGE OF A YOUNG GRASSROOTS ORGANIZATION 236 DECENTRALIZATION, PARTY SYSTEM AND CHAVISMO 239 PARTY SYSTEM SHAKE-UPS 245 RE-CENTRALIZATION AND DE-PARTIDIZATION WITH THE CHÁVEZ GOVERNMENT? 253 MUNICIPAL POLITICAL POLARIZATION 257 AD AND DECENTRALIZATION IN THE 21ST CENTURY 261 COORDINADORA DEMOCRÁTICA 265 NEW LEFTIST BLOC 269 THE FUTURE OF DECENTRALIZATION AND THE PARTY SYSTEM IN VENEZUELA 272 CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL REMARKS 279 APPENDIX 1: 287 POLITICAL PARTY FRAGMENTATION IN VENEZUELA (1997-2001) 287 BIBLIOGRAPHY 288 LEGAL DOCUMENTS 316 VENEZUELAN ELECTORAL STATISTIC MATERIAL 316 VENEZUELAN NEWSPAPERS 317 VENEZUELAN TELEVISION ON INTERNET 317 VENEZUELAN MAGAZINES (SELECTION) 317 INTERVIEWS (SELECTION): 317 INDEX 322 III Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. List of Tables and Graphs Party and Party System Transformation Model 44 Classification of Party Systems based on the numbers and relative size of political parties 46 The Political Society 48 The Simple Polity Model 56 Mobilization and action processes of interest groups 57 Collective action and power/repression 58 The Politics Model 63 Decentralization: Pros and Cons 80 Political System of Venezuela before Decentralization 129 Political orientation of COPRE members 138 Political Party System: Credibility Crisis and Political Repercussions 140 Electoral System 1958-1988 145 Regional Political Map with an AD President until 1988 146 Electoral System 1989-1992 148 Electoral System since 1992 148 Elections of Governors and Mayors 1989 153 Political Society after Decentralization 161 Elections of Governors and Mayors 1992 163 Presidential Elections of 1993 174 Elections of Governors and Mayors 1995 192 Election of Mayors 1995 195 Deputies to regional state legislative assemblies 1995 196 Chronological list of Repeals of Governmental 204 mandates and Rejections of Memories and Accounts (June 1992-February 1995) The Policy-Making Process in Venezuela until 1993 212 Elections of Governors and Congress Deputies 1998 222 Political Map of Venezuela: Regional Elections 1998 222 Distribution of Regional Legislative Assembly 224 IV Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. Deputies by Political Party, Elections of 1998 Degree of Inclination towards Decentralization of the 229 Deputies of the Constitutional Assembly Effective Numbers of Political Parties 245 National, Congressional, Regional and Local 247 Elections in Venezuela: 1988-2000 Elections of Governors in Venezuela between 248 1989 and 2000 Presidential Elections in Venezuela (1973-2000) 249 Elections of Congress Deputies in Venezuela 250 (1973-2000) Congress deputies per political party 252 (1993, 1998 & 2000) V Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. The Venezuelan Regional States1 State Capital Population Amazonas Puerto Ayacucho 70.464 Anzoátegui Barcelona 1.222.225 Apure San Fernando 377.756 Aragua Maracay 1.449.616 Barínas Barínas 624.508 Bolívar Ciudad Bolívar 1.214.846 Carabobo Valencia 1.932.168 Cojedes San Carlos 253.105 Delta Amacuro Tucupita 97.987 Falcón Coro 763.188 Guárico San Juan de los Morros 627.086 Lara Barquisimeto 1.556.415 Mérida Mérida 715.268 Miranda Los Teques 2.330.872 Monagas Maturín 712.626 Nueva Esparta La Asunción 373.851 Portuguesa Guanare 725.740 Sucre Cumaná 786.483 Táchira San Cristóbal 992.669 Trujillo Trujillo 608.536 Vargas La Guaira 298.109 Yaracuy San Felipe 499.049 Zulia Maracaibo 2.983.679 Distrito Capital Caracas 1.836.286 1 Material based on: XIII Censo General de Población y Vivienda (2001), Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas. (Venezuela Virtual). http://www.mipunto.com/venezuelavirtual/mapas/mapa_distribucion.jsp VI Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. Political Map of Venezuela VII Suicide of the Elephants? Venezuelan Decentralization between Partyarchy and Chavismo. Risky Business A motley crew of friends and colleagues has been involved in the processes of the present work. Even though these lines are the first, they were written last, only hours before sending the manuscript to Finland. In 1990 Mike Blondie Bonaparte convinced me to take a break from the Stockholm rock’n’roll scene of the time, which had hitherto dominated our lives, and introduced me to Venezuela. Since I was so well received there during my first stay, thanks to people like Enrique Aranguren and the late Michel Dagher, I remained in Venezuela several more weeks after Mike had returned to Sweden. My interest in Venezuela thus took root nearly one and a half decades ago, politically a most turbulent period, just after the Caracazo riots and the implementation of the decentralization reform. Even if I was then spending more time on the beaches of Caribe and Falcón than in political and academic institutions, it was impossible not to feel that Venezuela stood at a decisive crossroads. From those days in 1991 to the doctoral program in Latin American studies of the Ibero-American Center at Helsinki University, the road has indeed been stormy and continually changing in all respects. Since my first visit to Venezuela I have returned fifteen times, and I have dedicated the great majority of my academic papers and essays to various aspects of the political, social, economic and cultural development of the nation. Without the intention to neglect anybody, therefore risky business, I will start by expressing my gratitude to my Finnish tutors and great friends Jussi Pakkasvirta and Teivo Teivainen at the Ibero-American Center, as well as Martti Pärssinen, Ilkka Ruohonen, Pekka Valtonen, Jouni Pirttijärvi, Florencia Quesada, and other Finnish and international research colleagues. The constructive comments of Carsten Anckar and Tapio Raunio were of great value for the improvements of the study. Anne Cleaves is due special thanks for revisions of language and style, and Tina Löfgren for layout suggestions. At the Institute of Latin American Studies at Stockholm University, I have been supported since 1996, and my first and deepest thanks