Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized w rked East Asia &Pacific East in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Mekong in Vietnam’s Towards UrbanResilience Towards and Economic Growth Growth and Economic Net- Net- w rked Towards Urban Resilience and Economic Growth in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta East Asia & Pacific © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Table of contents PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... 8 ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 What are the specific barriers, challenges, and opportunities for the Mekong Delta’s secondary cities? ......................................................................................................................................................................... 12 How have past and present development plans shaped these urban economies? ........................................................ 13 What priorities should guide the government’s future plans for these and other secondary cities in the Mekong Delta?.................................................................................................................................................................. 14 SECONDARY CITIES IN THE MEKONG DELTA REGION: 1 WHAT THIS REPORT LOOKS AT—AND WHY .............................................................................................. 18 Key points ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19 SEVEN CITIES AND THEIR LANDSCAPES: HOW HUMAN HABITATION 2 HAS SHAPED THE MEKONG DELTA .............................................................................................................. 22 Key points ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 A rich agricultural setting as the rice bowl of Vietnam ............................................................................................ 24 Locational factors in economic activities and urban resilience .............................................................................. 25 WHY THE MEKONG DELTA’S PROVINCIAL CAPITAL CITIES HAVE NOT MATCHED 3 THEIR SOCIAL GAINS WITH RAPID ECONOMIC OR POPULATION GROWTH .................................... 26 Key points ......................................................................................................................................................................... 27 A national rural–urban transformation ....................................................................................................................... 28 Urban population and growth nationally .................................................................................................................... 28 Impressive achievements in poverty reduction and service delivery .................................................................... 29 Population growth rates are low, largely because of outmigration ........................................................................ 30 Secondary cities are way-stations, not final destinations ........................................................................................ 30 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT WILL DEPEND CHIEFLY 4 ON AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION ......................................................................................................... 32 Key points ......................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Underemployment and unemployment are high ....................................................................................................... 34 Economic growth at provincial and city levels is slowing, and secondary cities’ contribution to provincial economies is volatile ........................................................................................................ 35 Services and agriculture make the largest contribution to provincial and urban employment and economic growth in a majority of the provinces considered ................................................... 35 Several factors constrain industry and service development ................................................................................. 35 City finances are not sustainable .................................................................................................................................. 36 Cities are vulnerable to economic and natural shocks ............................................................................................. 37 4 :: Networked: Towards Urban Resilience and Economic Growth in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta WHAT SECONDARY CITIES NEED: DATA-DRIVEN PLANNING FOR RESILIENT, 5 NETWORKED DEVELOPMENT ....................................................................................................................... 38 Key points ......................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Urban development has resulted in low-density, low-rise city centers with sprawling urban fringes .................................................................................................................................................................... 40 City master plans are more aspirational than demand driven ................................................................................ 41 Urban expansion has resulted in the loss of productive agricultural land........................................................... 42 City master plans are based on technocratic standards disconnected from the urban context ............................................................................................................................................................ 45 Transport planning is not sufficiently informed by data or demand ..................................................................... 46 Infrastructure investments are not based on demand forecasts ........................................................................... 47 More use needs to be made of geospatial data for planning and decisionmaking .............................................. 48 Climate-related risks are undermining the provision of services such as water supply, while urbanization is exacerbating flood risk ............................................................................................................ 49 Institutional and capacity issues reduce the ability to manage disaster risk and adapt to climate change ............................................................................................................................................................. 50 SPEEDING GROWTH AND BUILDING RESILIENCE THROUGH NETWORKED 6 DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................................................................ 51 Key points 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