September 2010 Special Events Travel Forecasting Model and Collection of Special Events Data prepared for Maricopa Association of Governments 302 North 1st Avenue Phoenix, Arizona 85003 prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 9015 Mountain Ridge Drive, Suite 210 Austin, Texas 78759 with WestGroup Research 3033 North 44th Street, Suite 150 Phoenix, Arizona 85018 Completed September 2010 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1-1 2.0 Special Events Data Collection Plan ............................................................... 2-1 2.1 Classification of Special Events ................................................................ 2-1 2.2 Survey Methodology .................................................................................. 2-1 2.3 Sampling Plan ............................................................................................. 2-3 2.4 Survey Procedure and QA/QC for Data Collection .............................. 2-4 3.0 Special Events Survey Results ......................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Pretests ......................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Data Expansion ........................................................................................... 3-3 3.3 Geocoding .................................................................................................... 3-4 3.4 Full Surveys ................................................................................................. 3-8 3.5 Challenges During Data Collection........................................................ 3-11 4.0 Special Events Model Development Plan ...................................................... 4-1 4.1 Concept Development ............................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Trip Generation ........................................................................................... 4-3 Data Required for Estimation ............................................................................ 4-4 Data Required for Application........................................................................... 4-4 4.3 Trip Distribution ......................................................................................... 4-4 Methodology for Predicting Origin Type......................................................... 4-4 Data Required for Estimation ............................................................................ 4-6 Data Required for Application........................................................................... 4-6 Methodology for Distributing Person Trips to Origin TAZs ........................ 4-6 Data Required for Estimation ............................................................................ 4-7 Data Required for Application........................................................................... 4-7 4.4 Mode Choice ................................................................................................ 4-7 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 4-7 Data for Estimation .............................................................................................. 4-8 Data for Application ............................................................................................ 4-8 4.5 Trip Assignment ....................................................................................... 4-11 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 4-11 Data for Application .......................................................................................... 4-12 5.0 Special Events Model Estimation Results ...................................................... 5-1 Final Report i Table of Contents, continued 5.1 Model Overview ......................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Model Inputs ............................................................................................... 5-1 5.3 Trip Generation ........................................................................................... 5-4 5.4 Time of Day ................................................................................................. 5-5 5.5 Origin Choice Model .................................................................................. 5-8 5.6 Mode Choice Model ................................................................................. 5-16 5.7 Multiclass Assignment ............................................................................. 5-22 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 5-23 6.0 SEM Application ................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1 Application .................................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Sensitivity Tests........................................................................................... 6-3 7.0 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................... 7-1 7.1 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 7-1 7.2 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 7-1 A. SEM Survey......................................................................................................... A-1 B. SEM User Guide ................................................................................................ B-1 ii Final Report List of Tables Table 2.1 List of Surveyed Special Events ............................................................ 2-1 Table 2.2 Sample Sizes at 95-Percent Confidence Level ..................................... 2-3 Table 3.1 Example of Expansion Factor Calculation ........................................... 3-4 Table 3.2 Geocoding Results from First Two Surveys ........................................ 3-7 Table 3.3 Mode Used to Travel to Special Event ................................................. 3-9 Table 3.4 Household Income Distribution for Special Event Attendees and the MAG Area Population ................................................................... 3-10 Table 3.5 Vehicle Availability Distribution for Event Attendees and the MAG Area Population .......................................................................... 3-11 Table 4.1 Distribution of Origin Location Type by Special Event ..................... 4-5 Table 4.2 Unweighted Modal Shares by Special Event ...................................... 4-9 Table 4.3 Weighted Modal Shares by Special Event ......................................... 4-10 Table 5.1 Set Start and End Time Arrival Time Distributions ........................... 5-6 Table 5.2 Set Start and End Time Distributions of Stated Planned Duration at Event ..................................................................................................... 5-6 Table 5.3 Arrival and Departure Time Distribution for Set Start and End Time Events .............................................................................................. 5-7 Table 5.4 Continuous Start and End Time Distributions of Stated Planned Duration at Event .................................................................................... 5-7 Table 5.5 Percentage Allocation of External Trips to External Stations ........... 5-9 Table 5.6 Location Type Percentages Based on Event Market Area and Day of Week – Time-of-Day ......................................................................... 5-10 Table 5.7 Distribution of Multiregional and National Event Attendees Within Each Household Income and Household Vehicle Availability Group ................................................................................ 5-11 Table 5.8 Distribution of Regional Event Attendees Within Each Household Income and Household Vehicle Availability Group ... 5-11 Table 5.9 Home-Based Origin Choice Model ..................................................... 5-13 Table 5.10 Hotel-Based Origin Choice Model ...................................................... 5-15 Table 5.11 Work- and Other-Based Origin Choice Model ................................. 5-16 Table 5.12 Final Nested Logit Mode Choice Model ............................................ 5-21 Final Report iii List of Tables, continued Table 6.1 SEM Sensitivity Test 1 ............................................................................ 6-3 Table 6.2 SEM Sensitivity Test 2 ............................................................................ 6-4 Table 6.3 SEM Sensitivity Test 4 ............................................................................ 6-4 iv Final Report List of Figures Figure 2.1 Location of Special Events Surveyed .................................................... 2-1 Figure 3.1 Shift Geocoding Location Based on Direction Provided in Survey . 3-6 Figure 4.1 SEM Flowchart ........................................................................................ 4-2 Figure 5.1 Effect of Distance on Origin Choice Model Utilities ........................ 5-14 Figure 5.2 Nested Logit Mode Choice Model Structure ..................................... 5-20 Final Report v 1.0 Introduction The Maricopa