Chapter 2 2.1 PURPOSE AND NEED 2 PURPOSE AND NEED This section identifies the transportation constraints and need for improved transit services to accommodate growing travel demand between Central Orange County, the Mid-Hudson region, Manhattan and Stewart International Airport for both commuters and airport users. It also describes the process to identify transit solutions that would improve mobility and support long-term growth in the region. 2.1 Problem Statement and Study Area Needs As noted in Chapter 1, a growing number of Central Orange County residents rely on bus and rail transit services to reach work places in Manhattan Central Business District (CBD). These transit services are constrained by several factors. Local roads and main roadways leading out from Central Orange County are experiencing deteriorating traffic conditions. Bus services utilize congested roadways to reach destinations in Manhattan and as the region grows, highway congestion is forecast to worsen leading to increased travel times with greater variance. Furthermore, growth in commuter rail service on the PJL is also constrained by capacity limitations, limited transit access to stations, and the need to transfer at either Secaucus Junction or Hoboken to connecting train service to Manhattan. Additionally, the ability to accommodate the increased demand for reverse and off-peak service on the capacity-constrained PJL needs to be addressed. Air passenger and employee access to and from SWF represents another key transportation issue. Today, SWF primarily serves Orange County and adjacent counties in the Mid-Hudson region, northwestern New Jersey, and western Connecticut. Flights to and from SWF provide direct service to Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia.1 The Port Authority continues to invest in improved airport facilities to attract and support future growth in service and passenger volumes at SWF. Port Authority’s airport planning includes comprehensive strategies for capital improvements to facilities, attraction of additional air carriers, and improved ground access. At present, nearly all access to SWF is by automobile. Since 2007, when the Port Authority took over operations of SWF, available public parking has been increased by more than 1,200 parking spaces to a current total of 2,029 parking spaces. The long-term parking lot, bordering the terminal, and located between Circulation Drive and Breunig Road was recently expanded to accommodate 1,500 parking spaces. More than 800 of these parking spaces are within walking distance of the terminal2. A strategy for relieving the growing demand on terminal-area parking includes improving existing transportation access, providing new transit services for passengers and employees, and greater use of satellite parking lots. Recent improvements made at I-87 Interchange 17, connecting with I-84, and the opening of Exit 5A of I- 84 to Route 747 provide better accessibility to SWF. However, there is little or no transit access to SWF; the nearest rail transit stations are on Metro-North’s PJL at Salisbury Mills-Cornwall Station and on Metro- 1 The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey website December 10, 2010. http://www.panynj.gov/airports/swf-airlines.html 2 THINK Stewart International Airport. Fall 2010 Newsletter. http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf/swf-news-fall-2010.pdf Alternatives Analysis Phase I Screening Report 2-1 Chapter 2 PURPOSE AND NEED North’s Hudson Line at Beacon Station across the Hudson River. A limited (approximately one hour headways) bus shuttle linking the Beacon Station with the airport is currently the only scheduled transit service to the airport. Recently, NYSDOT has announced plans to reduce this service. The Port Authority, NYSDOT, Metro-North, and local governments all recognize that development of transit service options for both local and region-wide travel markets is a critical ingredient in supporting transportation and development objectives. In addition, implementing new local and regional transit services for SWF best assures reliable access for passengers and employees while minimizing traffic impacts as the level of airport activity increases. The WHRTAS Study Area has been the subject of many transportation studies at the state, regional, and local level focusing on critical transportation needs. These studies have identified the following key transportation issues and challenges. Increases in population and employment have led to worsening traffic congestion and longer travel times. Orange County, New York is located approximately 50 miles northwest of New York City and contains a mix of land uses including residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural. From 2000 to 2010, the population in Orange County grew by 9.2 percent, representing one of the highest increases in the region3. During that same period, employment grew by almost eight percent. Although this growth has slowed along with the broader economy in recent years, the long-term growth rate in Orange County is expected to be among the highest in the state. Projections by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC)4 anticipate that between 2005 and 2035 the population in Orange County will see a growth of approximately 107,000 residents (29 percent) and a growth of 34,000 jobs (25 percent) in the same timeframe. The long term Orange County growth rate in population is significantly higher than for the Mid-Hudson region as a whole and also higher than any other county to the south within the Study Area. The rate of job growth in Orange County is generally comparable to the region. Based on these projections, the Mid- Hudson region, northeastern New Jersey, and Manhattan are expected to show growth of approximately 936,000 jobs combined during this period. If all five boroughs of New York City are included, the growth is approximately 1,518,000 jobs. (See Table 2-1 for the projected population and employment growth to 2035). 3 Source: Us Census Bureau – 2010 Census Data. 4 NYMTC forecasts are developed in coordination with Orange County MPO and are used by Orange County MPO for planning purposes. 2-2 Alternatives Analysis Phase I Screening Report Chapter 2 2.1 PURPOSE AND NEED Table 2-1 Population and Employment Growth Population (in 000s) Employment (in 000s) Area 2005 2035 Growth (%) 2005 2035 Growth (%) Orange County, NY 373 480 107 (29%) 136 170 34 (25%) Mid-Hudson Region 2,011 2,408 397 (20%) 798 1,054 256 (32%) Northeastern, NJ 2,793 3,243 450 (16%) 1,165 1,415 250 (21%) Manhattan 1,606 1,884 278 (17%) 2,074 2,504 430 (21%) New York City 8,209 9,492 1,283 (16%) 3,777 4,789 1,012 (27%) Source: NYMTC Socioeconomic and Demographic Forecast Series, July 2009 Mid-Hudson Region is Orange, Rockland, Ulster, Sullivan, Dutchess, Putnam, and Westchester Counties. Northeastern NJ is Bergen, Passaic, Essex, and Hudson Counties. New York City is Manhattan, Queens, Bronx, Kings, and Richmond Counties. The economy of Orange County is strongly tied to employment located within Orange County and the region that extends generally southward to northern New Jersey and New York City. Figure 2-1 depicts general employment destinations outside of Orange County, the largest of which is Manhattan, where according to the U.S. Census nearly 10,000 Orange County residents worked in 2000. This amounted to 18% of all Orange County residents that worked outside the county. In addition to Manhattan, Rockland and Westchester Counties in New York and Bergen County in northern New Jersey were the other major Orange County journey-to-work destinations. The journey-to-work data indicates that the need for convenient access to these and other job markets located between Orange County and New York City is an important component of Orange County’s economy and growth potential. Today, ninety percent of Orange County residents reach their workplaces by automobile. As population and employment in Orange County grow, traffic volumes will lead to increased congestion and longer automobile travel times, which potentially limit the ability of Orange County residents to travel to work. Table 2-2 shows estimates of daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) and the ratio of VMT to VHT in Orange County, for 2005 and 2035. The VMT/VHT ratio is lower in 2035 than in 2005, which indicates a drop in speeds throughout the county. Table 2-2 Orange County Daily VMT and VHT Estimates for 2005 and 2035 2005 2035 Vehicle Miles Traveled 9,223,951 15,569,725 Vehicle Hours Traveled 252,083 488,832 VMT/VHT 36.59 31.85 Source: NYMTC Socioeconomic and Demographic Forecast Series, July 2009 Alternatives Analysis Phase I Screening Report 2-3 Chapter 2 PURPOSE AND NEED Figure 2-1 Year 2000 Journey to Employment Locations for Orange County Residents In 2005, the total highway travel time from New Windsor in Orange County to Manhattan (approximately 60 miles) was 94 minutes at an average speed of 49 miles per hour (mph). By the year 2035, forecasted auto travel times from New Windsor to New York City could more than double, taking well over 2.5 hours at speeds ranging from 31 to 49 mph5. Bus travel times are expected to grow by a similar amount. 5 Results from the BPM using the 2004 NYMTC demographic and socioeconomic forecast series. 2-4 Alternatives Analysis Phase I Screening Report Chapter 2 2.1 PURPOSE AND NEED Transit accessibility and mobility in the West of Hudson Study Area are inadequate. As noted in Chapter 1, Metro-North provides commuter rail service to the counties north of Manhattan east and west of the Hudson River. East of the Hudson River, Metro-North has three major commuter lines – Hudson Line, Harlem Line, and New Haven Line. West of the Hudson River, there are only two commuter rail lines – the PJL and the Pascack Valley Line, the latter of which terminates at Spring Valley just north of the New Jersey border (Figure 2-2).