Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Editors: Jan F. Feenstra Ian Burton Joel B. Smith Richard S.J. Tol Version 2.0 October, 1998 vrije Universiteit amsterdam United Nations Environment Programme Institute for Environmental Studies Preface The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) took the initiative for the development of this “Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies” as part of UNEP’s participation in the development of guidelines and handbooks for Climate Change Country Studies. The project is also part of the World Climate Impact Assessment and Response Strategies Programme (WCIRP) and as such contributes to the International Climate Agenda. Climate Change Country Studies can be divided into four related activities: 1. Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories; 2. Mitigation Studies (Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Studies); 3. Impact Assessment and Adaptation Studies; and 4. National Communications. Guidelines for national Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories have been developed by IPCC/OECD/IEA with assistance from UNEP/GEF. These Guidelines have been adopted by the first Conference of Parties (CoP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Guidelines for Mitigation Studies are being developed by UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, Risø, Denmark, in co-operation with several developing countries and countries with economies in transition in a series of UNEP/GEF funded country studies. Guidelines for National Communications have been developed by the UNFCCC. It is emphasised that in no way should the development of this Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies suggest that adapta- tion to climate change is considered to be of greater importance than mitigation. Only mitigation can prevent climate change and its consequences. However, since we are already committed to some climate change and since it is unlikely that the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be sufficient to prevent climate change, it is better to be prepared than to leave it for future generations to live with. The project for development of this version of the handbook was funded, through UNEP, by the Governments of Denmark and The Netherlands. The project was co- UNEP/IVM Handbook ordinated by the Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam. All communications between the editors and the lead authors were carried out by the convening editor Ian Burton, who took also the lead in the generic chapters introduction and getting started written by the editors. The last version of this handbook (version 1.3; October 1996) was used by several country study teams in developing countries conducting impact and adaptation assessments. The handbook was tested specifically by the country study teams of Antigua and Bardua, Cameroon, Estonia and Pakistan in the UNEP/GEF project “Country Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments”. Their comments, recommendations, and suggestions for improvement have been incorporated in this version. Apart from this, internationally recognised experts (see acknowledgements) reviewed, on request of the editors, the sectoral chapters. These reviews were compiled by the convening editor and sent to the lead authors for consideration. The editors are convinced that the above input, together with a new organisation, especially in the generic issue chapters, has improved this version of the handbook substantially. This Handbook on Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies is made available by UNEP to the Parties to the UNFCCC. Although significant effort has been put into making this handbook more useful and better applicable for developing countries and countries with economies in transition than the last version, it is likely that it can be improved further. The country study teams (and other readers) that will use this handbook are therefore encouraged to comment candidly on the format and content and if possible give recommendations for improvement. The users and readers of this handbook are invited to send their comments to either Jan F. Feenstra at the Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam, or Alex Alusa at UNEP Headquarters, Nairobi. Jan F. Feenstra Alex Alusa Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) UNEP Headquarters Vrije Universiteit Atmosphere Unit De Boelelaan 1115 P.O. Box 30552 1081 HV Amsterdam Nairobi The Netherlands Kenya Tel. +31-20-444 9550 Tel. +254-2-623 4551 Fax +31-20-444 9553 Fax +254-2-623 410 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] iv List of lead authors John M. Balbus Department of Environmental & Occupational Medicine, George Washington University, 2300 K. St., NW #20120037 Washington DC, USA. Phone: +1 202 994 2614, e-mail: [email protected] Barry Baker Ecosystems Research International, 305 W. Magnolia Street 262 Fort Collins - CO 80521-2801, USA. Phone: +1 970 493 4004, e-mail: [email protected] Michael Brody US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Planning, Analysis and Accountability (2710), 401 M St. SW Washington DC 20460, USA. Phone: +1 202 260 7558, e- mail: [email protected] Ian Burton Atmospheric Environment Science, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada. Phone: +1 416 739 4314, e-mail: [email protected] Stewart J. Cohen Environmental Adaptation Research Group (EARG), Environment Canada, located at Sustainable Development Research Institute, University of British Columbia, B5-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4. Phone: +1 604-822-1635, e-mail: [email protected]. Homepage: http://www.tor.ec.gc.ca/earg Jan F. Feenstra Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1115, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Phone: +31 20 444 9550, e-mail: [email protected] Ihor Hlohowskyj Environmental Assessment Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Ave, Argonne, Illinois 60439, USA. Phone: +1 630 252 3478, email: [email protected] UNEP/IVM Handbook Mike Hulme Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK. Phone: +44 1603 593162, e-mail: [email protected] Ana Iglesias Intesca, Uniersidad Politecnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Phone: +34 91 336 5832, e-mail: [email protected] Richard J.T. Klein Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Telegrafenberg C4, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany, Phone: +49 331 2882500, e-mail: klein@pik- potsdam.de Stephanie Lenhart Stratus Consulting Inc., P.O. Box 4095, Boulder CO 80306- 4059, USA. Phone: +1 303 381 8000, e-mail: [email protected] Sune Linder Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Ecology and Environmental Research, P.O. Box 7042, S-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden. Phone: +47 18 672440, e-mail: [email protected] Jay R. Malcolm Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3B3. Phone: +1 416 978 5480, e-mail: [email protected] Robert J. Nicholls Flood Hazard Research Centre, School of Social Science, Middlesex University, Queensway, Enfield EN3 4SF, U.K. Phone: +44 181 3625569, e-mail: [email protected] Martin L. Parry Jackson Environment Institute, University College London, 5 Gower Street, London WC1E 6HA, U.K. Phone: +44 171 813 5206, e-mail: [email protected] Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA/GISS, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. Phone: +1 212 678 5591, e-mail: [email protected] Robert J. Scholes Division of Water, Environment and Forest Technology CSIR, P.O. Box 395, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Phone: +27 12 841 2045, e-mail: [email protected] Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc., P.O. Box 4095, Boulder CO 80306- 4059, USA. Phone: +1 303 381 8000 x218, e-mail: [email protected] vi Frank Stern Hagler Bailly Consulting, Inc., P.O. Drawer O, Boulder, CO 80306-1906, USA. Phone: +1 303 449 5515, e-mail: [email protected] Kenneth M. Strzepek University of Colorado, Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado , ECOT-5- 28, Campus Box 428, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA. Phone: +1 303 492 7111, e-mail: [email protected] Richard S.J. Tol Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1115, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Phone: +31 20 444 9503, e-mail: [email protected] vii UNEP/IVM Handbook Acknowledgement The editors would like to offer special thanks to Martin Parry for his participation and input as advisor to the editors, to the country study teams that commented the former version and gave recommendations for improvement. The editors owe special thanks to the following persons who contributed to the development of this Handbook in various ways, this includes specific reviews of individual chapters; suggestions for the overall design and content; and in other ways being helpful to the editors: Jacques Antoine, Larry Awosika Suzann Bolton, Tim Carter, Fred Chege, Rex Cruz, Ian Douglas, Hadi Dowlatabadi, Tom Downing, Kirsty Duncan, Jay Edmonds, Dick Ellsworth, Paul Epstein, John Everett, Mickey Glantz, Rene Gommes, Vivien Gornitz, John Handmer, Nick Harvey, Zdzislaw Kacmarek, Robert Kates, Mick Kelly, John Last, Stephen Leatherman, Rick Leemans, Don MacIver, Gabriel Mailu., Anthony McMichael, Roberto Moreno, Richard Moss, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Nobuo Nimura, Patrick Nunn, Leonard Nurse, Tim O'Riordan, Barry Pittock, Walter Rast, Henry Regier, John Reilly, John Robinson, Norman