FINAL REPORT on ADVANCED SYSTEM CONCEPT FOR TOTAL ISRU- BASED PROPULSION AND POWER SYSTEMS FOR UNMANNED AND MANNED MARS EXPLORATION NIAC-PHASE II CONTRACT Under Research Grant 07600-041 OTC-GS-0096-FR-2002-1 Prepared for: Universities Space Research Association (USRA) 30 April 2002 by Dr. Eric E. Rice, President and CEO, NIAC Fellow ORBITAL TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION Space Center, 1212 Fourier Drive Madison, Wisconsin 53717 608-827-5000 www.orbitec.com EMAIL: [email protected] FOREWORD This document represents the Final Report on the Phase II feasibility analysis of an “Advanced System Concept for Total ISRU-based Propulsion and Power Systems for Unmanned and Manned Exploration.” The NIAC-Phase II study contract (research grant #07600-041), was conducted and prepared by Orbital Technologies Corporation (ORBITECTM), Madison, Wisconsin, for NASA and the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC), managed by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA). The work reported and summarized here was performed from April 14, 2000 through April 30, 2002. ORBITEC wishes to acknowledge the excellent communications and support from Dr. Robert Cassanova, NIAC Director and his project team. Dr. Eric E. Rice, PI and author, wishes also to acknowledge the excellent contributions to this effort of Mr. Robert Gustafson, Mr. Daniel Gramer, Mr. Brant White, Mr. Ronald Teeter, Dr. Marty Chiaverini, Mr. Chris St.Clair, Mr. William Knuth, Mr. Pete Priest, Dr. Douglas O’Handley, Mr. Matthew Malecki, Ms. MaryAnn Knoke and Ms. Lori Koffarnus. In addition, we wish to thank Mr. Robert Cataldo (NASA/GRC), Mr. Jerry Sanders (NASA/JSC) and Mr. Jeff Antol (NASA/LaRC) for their comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to our artist, Ms. Kandis Elliot, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, for her great work in capturing our imaginations. ORBITEC also wishes to acknowledge the input of the Approach Workshop Participants. A NIAC/ORBITEC project workshop was held in Madison, Wednesday, June 21-23, 2000, for the purpose of gaining valuable interaction between certain exploration/ISRU experts and the ORBITEC study team. The workshop focused on two study tasks: (1) to refine the study approach, ground rules, and possible advanced concepts, and (2) assess the possible activities that would be needed at a Mars base (the Mission Model). The participants who attended and contributed to the project workshop are listed below. We greatly appreciated their contributions to the goals of the project Workshop Participants: ORBITEC -- Dr. Eric Rice, Dr. Doug O'Handley, Mr. Robert Gustafson, Dr. Martin Chiaverini, Mr. Dan Gramer, Mr. Jerry Hanley, Dr. Jim Jordan, Mr. Bill Knuth, Dr. T. D. Lin, Mr. Matt Malecki, Dr. Bob Morrow, Mr. Pete Priest, Mr. Ron Teeter, Mr. Brant White, Dr. Leslie Gerstch, Dr. Richard Gerstch, and Mr. Marty Harms; NASA -- Dr. Mike O'Neal (KSC); Universities: Dr. George Miley (U of IL), Dr. Mike Duke (CSM), Dr. Jerry Kulcinski (UW); Others: Mr. Niklas Jarvstrat (Literati), Dr. Paul Spudis (LPI), Mr. John Hunt (DOA/FPL), and Dr. Ed McCullough (Boeing). It should be noted that the baseline analysis was conducted based upon the “dry Mars” assumption. Recent findings of the Odyssey Mission that has apparently discovered vast amounts of sub-surface water ice may likely change the study results if re-analyzed. 2 ORBITAL TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION NASA INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED CONCEPTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 STUDY BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................5 2.0 OVERALL APPROACH AND ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................6 3.0 PROPELLANT FAMILY DEFINITION ..........................................................................................8 3.1 Propellant Family Identification and Use ...........................................................................................8 3.2 Propellant Processing Scenarios .........................................................................................................9 3.3 Propellant Processing........................................................................................................................13 3.4 Nuclear Power Plant Requirements ..................................................................................................15 4.0 COLONY CHARACTERIZATION ................................................................................................16 4.1 Colony Size and Population Growth Model.....................................................................................16 4.2 Location of Mars Bases ....................................................................................................................18 4.3 Infrastructure Requirements and Concept Models ...........................................................................18 4.3.1 Colony Requirements and Concepts ..........................................................................................18 4.3.2 Infrastructure Model for 100-Person Colony.............................................................................23 4.3.3 Infrastructure Model for 10,000-Person Colony........................................................................25 4.4 Traffic Models ..................................................................................................................................25 4.4.1 Identification and Definition of Missions ..................................................................................25 4.4.2 Traffic Model for 100-Person Colony........................................................................................28 4.4.3 Traffic Model for 10,000-Person Colony...................................................................................28 5.0 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ANALYSIS..................................................................................29 5.1 Hopper Vehicles ...............................................................................................................................29 5.1.1 Requirements and Definition .....................................................................................................29 5.1.2 Analysis Codes...........................................................................................................................32 5.1.3 Results........................................................................................................................................37 5.1.4 Maintenance and Fleet Efficiency..............................................................................................41 5.2 Ground Vehicles ...............................................................................................................................43 5.2.1 Requirements and Definition .....................................................................................................43 5.2.2 Ground Vehicle Analysis Codes ................................................................................................44 5.2.3 Results........................................................................................................................................47 5.2.4 Ground Vehicle Maintenance and Fleet Efficiency ...................................................................52 5.3 Sounding Rockets .............................................................................................................................54 5.4 Mars Aeroplanes (Aerocraft)............................................................................................................55 5.5 Balloons............................................................................................................................................56 6.0 PROPELLANT PRODUCTION REQUIREMENTS.....................................................................57 6.1 Propellant and Power Plant Correlations..........................................................................................57 6.2 Requirements Analysis .....................................................................................................................59 6.2.1 Flight Vehicle Requirements......................................................................................................59 6.2.2 Ground Vehicle Requirements...................................................................................................65 7.0 COST MODELING ...........................................................................................................................68 7.1 Cost Model and Estimating Relationships........................................................................................68 7.1.1 CER Models...............................................................................................................................68 7.1.2 Earth-to-Mars Orbit Delivery.....................................................................................................69 7.1.3 General Infrastructure ................................................................................................................70 7.1.4 Power Systems ...........................................................................................................................71 7.1.5 Propellant Processors .................................................................................................................72 7.1.6 Hopper Vehicles.........................................................................................................................73