ISSN 1648-8024 General Jonas Þemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius STRATEGIC RESEARCH CENTER LITHUANIAN ANNUAL STRATEGIC REVIEW 2003 Vilnius 2004 Editorial Board: Raimundas Lopata, Jûratë Novagrockienë, Gediminas Vitkus Reviewers: Prof. habil. dr. Jonas Èièinskas, Head of the European Studies Department, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, University of Vilnius Laimonas TalatKelpa, Head of the Foreign Policy Analysis Division, Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Managing Editor: Gediminas Vitkus Make-up Editors: Bartz Sykes David Narcum Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2003, Vilnius: Lithuanian Military Academy, 2004. The main objective of this publication is to provide the readers with a wide-scale analysis and generalization of the changes, essential and significant, for the national security of Lithuania at internationalsystemic, regional and national levels. The book also aims to give maximum emphasis to the specificity of Lithuanian national security issues and comprehensively present them to a widely interested and concerned audience. © Authors of the articles, 2004 © Lithuanian Military Academy, 2004 Content Preface .........................................................................................................5 Global International System and Lithuania . 7 Global and Baltic Geopolitical Situation: Review of 2001-2003 Egidijus Motieka, Nortautas Statkus ...........................................................9 Military Conflict in the Information Age and Lithuanias Preparedness Nerijus Maliukevièius ...................................................................................41 Changing European Security Space ....................................... 63 EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy and Lithuania Algirdas Gricius, Kæstutis Paulauskas ..........................................................65 NATO Response Force and the EU Rapid Reaction Force: Main Challenges and Opportunities Margarita Ðeðelgytë.......................................................................................95 Enhanced co-operation in the EU and its implications for Lithuania Ramûnas Vilpiðauskas .................................................................................127 Lithuanias Eastern Neighbors ................................................ 144 Russias Alignment with Europe: Pursuing a Euro-Atlantic Agenda? Janina Ðleivytë ..............................................................................................147 Paradoxes of Belarus: Regional Security with a Transformation in Limbo Gediminas Vitkus, Virgilijus Pugaèiauskas, eds ...........................................173 Geopolitical Hostage: the Case of Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation Raimundas Lopata ......................................................................................203 Internal Security Issues in Lithuania ........................................ 221 Civilian Resistance in the Security and Defence System of Lithuania: History and Prospects Graþina Miniotaitë .......................................................................................223 Peculiarities of the Lithuanian Banking Sector Development and their Influence on Residents Economic Security Dalia Ðiukðtienë ...........................................................................................239 Energy (In)Dependence and National Security of Lithuania Þivilë Ðatûnienë ............................................................................................259 5 Preface A year ago the editorial board of the Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2002 in the preface of this publication stressed: certainly, both common global development tendencies of the international security system and the current issues of the Lithuanian national security during the last decade have stimulated the appearan- ce of numerous interesting and valuable publications. However, in spite of relevance and importance, Lithuanian national security has been analysed as if by fits and starts, failing to find a mean which could guarantee systematic and continuous research work to bring about the best results. The existing gap within the strategic studies of Lithuania have to be filled by the Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, which from now will be published in Lithuanian and English. This circumstance makes it possib- le to expect the Strategic Research Centre to become a continually and productively operating scientific research institution assembling scattered intellectual resour- ces for creative work1 . Today we can confirm that the hopes of the editorial board to develop Lithu- anian Annual Strategic Review into a periodical publication which might attract the attention of a wider public are beginning to come to fruition. This is proven not only by the second volume of the Review being in your hands, but also by positive com- ments which the editorial board received from representatives of the Lithuanian security community (politicians, analysts, the military, journalists) and from our partners abroad. Such broad endorsements support the premise that the selected modern approach of broadly expositive strategic security studies is a proper way to discover the complicated environment of Lithuanian national security. Thus it is not a surprise that Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2003 continues with integrated analysis of the countrys national security environment within the context of syste- mic, regional and national analytical levels. This approach is reflected in both the general structure of this volume and the explicative articles which go under approp- riate parts of the structure. The Review 2003 begins with a section on the global security environment. Within this section you will find two studies. The first one is devoted to the changes in the global and Baltic geopolitical situation. Authors investigated policy of the main geopolitical actors on the global, regional and local level in 2001-2003 and concluded that the U.S. and Israel gained predominantly after September 11 as well as Russia, which sought to weaken the structural power of the Baltic States. The second article deals with challenges of the global informational revolution for the international system and security environment, in general, and specifically on Lithu- anias readiness to respond to the threats posed. 1 Editorial Board, Preface in Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2002, Vilnius: Lithuanian Military Academy, 2003, p. 5-6. 6 Three studies are presented in the European section of the Review. Authors of the first study tried to evaluate recent development of the EUs foreign and security policy and to provide recommendations for further Lithuanian foreign policy which was always looking for means of successful manoeuvre within the transatlantic space. The second article NATO Response Force and the EU Rapid Reaction Force examines the correlation of two international security policy projects and discusses the prospects of Lithuanias participation in both of them. Finally, the third article addresses several issues linked to the enhanced co-operation and its potential impact on new member states. Russian and Belarussian topics are investigated within the third section of the Review. The first article discusses Russias European policy in the wake of September 11 and in the context of the dual enlargement of NATO and the EU. The second study addresses various aspects of Belarus realities and policies and evalu- ates them within the context of Baltic regional and European security. Finally, the author of the study on Kaliningrad introduces the concept of geopolitical hostage and presents its practical application for analysis in the specific case of the Russian Kaliningrad oblast. Three articles of the final part of the Review discuss different dimensions of Lithuanian internal security issues. The first one deals with civilian resistance in the security and defence system of Lithuania. The second paper addresses the attitudes of the population towards Lithuanian banking and public confidence in the sector re- garded as an integral part of economic security. The third study examines the stage of Lithuanian energy (in)dependence and its likely outcomes to national security. Hence, the editorial board hopes that this publications presented view from Lithuania regarding different aspects of the security environment will be a useful source of information and a valuable reference tool for those readers and researchers who are dealing specifically with Baltic regional security and particularly with the security and strategic dilemmas of the Baltic States. Vilnius, February 2004 Editorial Board Global International System and Lithuania 9 Egidijus Motieka* Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius Nortautas Statkus* Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius Global and Lithuanian Geopolitical Situation: Review of 2001-2003** The authors present the geopolitical analysis of global, regional and local (in the Eastern Baltics) situation for the 2001-2003 period. It is asserted that during this period the United States, Israel and Russia (in some areas) have received the biggest gains, at least in geostrategic terms. In the course of the counter-terrorist global campaign, EU countries have been divided on the issue of the war against Iraq and that, which has prevented consolidation of the common