The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context 16 Col (GS) Stefan C.P. Hinz Research Series The opinions and views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the position of the Swiss or German authorities or the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context GENEVA PAPERS The Geneva Centre for Security Policy The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 46 member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants, and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. The Geneva Papers and l’Esprit de Genève With its vocation for peace, Geneva is the city where international organisations, NGOs, and the academic community, working together, have the possibility of creating the essential conditions for debate and concrete action. The Geneva Papers intend to serve the same goal by promoting a platform for constructive and substantive dialogue. Geneva Papers – Research Series The Geneva Papers – Research Series is a set of publications offered by the GCSP. It complements the Geneva Papers – Conference Series that was launched in 2008, whose purpose is to reflect on the main issues and debates of an event organised by the GCSP. The Geneva Papers – Research Series seeks to analyse international security issues through an approach that combines policy analysis and academic rigour. It encourages reflection on new and traditional security issues that are relevant to GCSP training, such as the globalisation of security, new threats to international security, conflict trends and conflict management, transatlantic and European security, the role of international institutions in security governance and human security. The Research Series offers innovative analyses, case studies, policy prescriptions and critiques, to encourage global discussion. Drafts are peer-reviewed by the GCSP Review Committee. All Geneva Papers are available online at www.gcsp.ch/Knowledge/Publications For further information, please contact: [email protected] Copyright © Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2015 5 GENEVA PAPERS The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context About the Author Col (GS) Stefan C.P. Hinz Colonel (GS) Stefan C.P. Hinz is a German National. He speaks fluent German and English, has good knowledge of French and some basic knowledge of Italian and Dutch. Starting mid 2014, he is seconded from the German Armed Forces to the GCSP, being the fourth German Faculty since 1997. Since October 2015 he acts also as German liasion to the colocated Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF). As an German Airforce (GAF) Officer, his professional background is Extended Integrated Air Defence (EIAD), having been trained in air surveillance, fighter / surface-to-air-missile control and air battle management. He was appointed twice as a Commander in his service, first and foremost of the NATO Control & Reporting Centre (CRC), Garrison Messstetten and then of I. Division GAF Officer School, Fuerstenfeldbruck. Before that, he worked mainly in the field of German military and security politics in Berlin, first as Assistant Head of EU/ESDP Division Ministry of Defence (BMVg Fue S III 4) and, during the German EU Presidency in 2007, as Assistant Head of ESDP Division Federal Foreign Office (Auswaertiges Amt 202). His latest position before coming to Geneva was serving as Head of Branch International Relations and Arms Control in Headquarter GAF Berlin-Gatow. Stefan holds a diploma in Commerce (Dipl-Kfm univ) and was decorated with the Bronze Cross of Honour of the Bundeswehr. He is an alumnus of the NATO Defense College in Rome and has successfully completed the 40th Air Force General Staff Course and many other training courses. He published “Alles ist relativ ....- auch die universellen Menschenrechte? Zu den Hintergründen einer aktuellen Diskussion”, pp.120-152, in: Analysen und Perspektiven. Studien zu Staat, Politik und Gesellschaft, Uwe Hartmann (ed.), Bremen 1999 6 The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context GENEVA PAPERS Content Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Executive summary 9 Introduction 11 1. Relevant developments of recent decades 12 1.1 The groundbreaking conclusion of the INF Treaty in 1987 12 1.2 Multilateralization or even globalization of the INF Treaty? 13 1.3 Strategic lever missile defence 15 1.4 Measures against missile defence 19 2. Russian positioning 21 2.1 Announcements and projects 21 2.2 Announcements and projects 22 – the alleged Russian treaty violation 2.3 Russian counter-accusations 24 2.4 “Rounding off ” the missile potential – no treaty violation (?) 25 Summary and outlook 27 Footnotes 32 7 GENEVA PAPERS The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context Abbreviations and acronyms ABM Anti-ballistic missile ALCM Air-launched cruise missile EPAA European Phased Adaptive Approach GBI Ground-based interceptor (missile) GLCM Ground-launched cruise missile ICBM Intercontinental ballistic missile INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (Treaty) MAD Mutually assured destruction MIRV Multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NMD National Missile Defence REMD Russian-European Missile Defence System SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SDI Strategic Defence Initiative SLCM Sea-launched cruise missile SRBM Short-range ballistic missile START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty US United States VLS Vertical Launching System 8 The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context GENEVA PAPERS Executive summary The groundbreaking Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on the permanent elimination of all intermediate-range missiles by the United States (US) and Russia was signed in 1987. A recent difficulty in the relationship between the two countries emerged in summer 2014 when the US officially accused Russia of violating the treaty. Despite this, Russia has not expressed an intention to formally withdraw from the treaty. An end to this temporary impasse is unforeseeable at the moment. There are many reasons to believe that the Obama administration will treat this serious problem in a “businesslike” way, i.e. on the expert level, until the end of its term and will not give in to internal political pressure that the US should itself withdraw from the INF Treaty. Apart from good political reasons, there are also sound military reasons to consider this the right approach, especially from a European perspective: on the one hand, it is highly likely that the treaty violation does not yet involve newly introduced Russian ground-launched cruise missiles. On the other hand, Russia is expanding its strategic capacity by introducing a new ballistic missile (RS-26 Rubezh) that, like the old SS-20, can reach every point in NATO Europe in minutes. This new missile is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which means it does not violate the letter of the treaty, but may violate its spirit. Despite the merits of the INF Treaty, the current situation clearly points to the limits of its regime. While Europe is free to threaten or take deterrent or defensive measures against the Russian treaty violation, it is in the continent’s interests to save the treaty, because its abrogation will not increase European security. The European public should therefore participate more actively in the discussion about the future of the INF Treaty, examine European interests, and work towards maintaining the treaty. The prevailing political climate between Russia and the West in general and the constantly increasing strategic-operative importance of nuclear weapons in Russia in particular are challenging enough. The fact that the nuclear strategic arms control system (the New Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) follows the right path gives cause for cautious optimism in this context. The INF dossier is linked with the missile defence dossier. It can be assumed that Russia is serious about its consistent announcements and targets missile defence sites in Europe. The means of first choice in this regard are ballistic and/or cruise missiles. 9 GENEVA PAPERS The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context The increasing global deployment of missile defence forces by the US and its allies as a reaction to new risks and threats has strategic implications well beyond the bilateral relationship between Russia and the US. As factors in a strategic stability equation in a multipolar world, China, which is definitely affected by missile defence to a certain extent, and, in cascading succession, India and other states should be even less neglected in the future. In the face of the threat of a new arms race there is a need for continued efforts to maintain global stability based on confidence and transparency. 10 The Crisis of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in the Global Context GENEVA PAPERS Introduction Will NATO soon take a new double-track decision? Will we see the start of a new arms race, including nuclear capability, in the intermediate-range