INDUSTRIAL PROSPECTS ANDPOLICYOPTIONS PROSPECTS INDUSTRIAL Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized OFMALAYSIA’S ANALYSIS A COMPARATIVE Shahid Yusuf and KaoruNabeshima Shahid Yusuf Tiger Economies Under Threat Tiger Economies Under Threat A Comparative Analysis of Malaysia’s Industrial Prospects and Policy Options Shahid Yusuf Kaoru Nabeshima Washington, D.C. © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not neces- sarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-7880-9 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8061-1 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7880-9 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data has been applied for. Cover design by Drew Fasick, Serif Design Group. Contents Acknowledgments . xv About the Authors. xvii Abbreviations . xix Chapter 1. Southeast Asia Faces Mounting Competition . 1 Brief Development History of the Four Southeast Asian Tigers. 4 The East Asian Model . 5 The Malaysian Experience . 7 Analyzing Industrial Change in Southeast Asia . 14 Tiger in the Spotlight . 15 Chapter 2. Malaysia: The Quintessential Maturing Tiger Economy . 17 Sources of Growth. 17 Evolution of the Manufacturing Industry in Malaysia . 22 Annex 2.A: Indicators of Competitiveness . 31 Chapter 3. Analyzing Comparative Advantage and Industrial Change: Reading the Export Trade Tea Leaves. 37 Exports and Industrial Change . 38 An Overview of Export Capabilities . 86 Chapter 4. Imports and Foreign Direct Investment: Competition and Technology Transfer . 93 Imports and Technology Transfer . 95 Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment . 98 Technology Infusion from FDI and Upgrading . 102 Chapter 5. Leading and Faltering Industries: The Electronics, Auto Parts, and Agro-Processing Sectors. 105 Electronics and Electrical Engineering . 105 Auto Parts Industry. 109 Palm Oil, Biodiesel, and Food Products . 113 v vi Contents Chapter 6. Can Southeast Asian Tiger Economies Become Innovative? . 119 Industrial Location . 119 Quality of Labor . 131 Access to Finance. 150 Chapter 7. From Technology Development to Innovation Capability. 159 R&D Spending. 160 Patenting Activity . 172 Licensing and Technology Transfer . 178 Research Activities of Malaysian Firms. 180 Innovation Comparative Advantage . 183 Chapter 8. Can the Tigers Grow Fast and Furious Again? . 187 Long-Run Growth. 187 How Neighboring Economies Can Affect Malaysia. 199 Chapter 9. What Can the Tigers Do? . 203 Appendix A Revealed Comparative Advantage of East Asian Economies Other than Malaysia. 219 Appendix B Product Space Analysis for Southeast Asian Economies . 225 Appendix C Research and Development Spending by Private Firms in Malaysia . 235 Appendix D Index of Innovation Revealed Comparative Advantage . 237 Appendix E Financial Incentives for Research and Development, Technology Development, and Innovation in Chinese Firms . 241 Appendix F Financial Incentives for Research and Development, Technology Development, and Innovation in Thai Firms. 243 References . 249 Index. 269 Figures 2.1 Industrial Composition by Type of Manufacture, Malaysia, 1981, 1990, and 2002 . 23 2.2 Value-Added Ratios in Machinery in Selected East Asian Economies . 27 Contents vii 3.1 Share of Malaysia’s and Selected Southeast Asian Countries’ Exports to the World, 1995–2007 . 40 3.2 Share of Malaysia’s and Selected Southeast Asian Countries’ Exports to the United States, 1995–2007 . 40 3.3 Share of Malaysia’s and Selected Southeast Asian Countries’ Exports to China, 1995–2007 . 41 3.4 Exports of Malaysia by Type of Manufacture, 1995–2007 . 41 3.5 Exports of Malaysia by Type of Manufacture, Excluding Electronics, 1995–2007 . 42 3.6 Exports of Electronic and Electrical Manufactures, 1995–2007. 43 3.7 Composition of Exports by Type of Manufactures, 1995 and 2007. 46 3.8 Share of Overlapping Commodities, 1995, 2000, and 2007 . 48 3.9 Share of Overlapping Trade Values, 1995, 2000, and 2007 . 48 3.10 Imports of Electronic Components by China from East Asian Countries, 1995–2007. 61 3.11 Imports of Electronic Components by China from East Asian Countries, Excluding Japan and Korea, 1995–2007. 62 3.12 Imports of Electronic Components by China, According to Economy of Origin, 1995–2007. 63 3.13 Exports of Electronic Components by China According to Economy of Destination, 1995–2007 . 63 3.14 Unit Values of Digital Monolithic Integrated Circuits, 1995–2007 . 70 3.15 Unit Values of Nondigital Monolithic Integrated Circuits, 1995–2007 . 71 3.16 Unit Values of Hybrid Integrated Circuits, 1995–2007 . 71 3.17 Unit Values of Electronic Integrated Circuits, 1995–2007. 72 3.18 Unit Values of Parts of Electronic Integrated Circuits and Similar Items, 1995–2007 . 72 3.19 Unit Values of Color Cathode Ray Television Picture Tubes and Similar Items, 1995–2007 . 73 3.20 Product Space of Selected Southeast Asian Countries, 2000–04 . 83 3.21 Product Space of China, 2000–04 . 85 3.22 Composition of Service Exports from Malaysia, 1995–2007 . 88 3.23 Composition of Selected Service Exports from Malaysia, 1999–2007 . 88 3.24 Service Exports from Southeast Asian Countries, 1995–2007 . 89 4.1 Average Tariffs on Total Imports, 1995–2007. 94 4.2 Average Tariffs on Machinery and Equipment Imports, 1995–2007 . 94 4.3 Composition of Machinery and Equipment Imports by Malaysia, 1995–2007 . 96 4.4 Net Inflows of FDI, 1995–2006 . 98 4.5 Top 12 FDI Sectors in Malaysia, 1999–2003 . 99 4.6 Top 12 FDI Sectors in Malaysia, 1999–2003 . 100 4.7 Composition of Radio, Television, and Communication FDI Inflows into Malaysia by Source Economy, 1999–2003. 101 viii Contents 6.1 Secondary School Gross Enrollment Ratio, 2006. 135 6.2 Hybritech and Its Daughter Firms in San Diego . 142 6.3 Information and Communication Technology Investment and Labor Productivity Growth, 1989–2005 . 148 6.4 M2 as a Percentage of GDP, 1995–2007 . 151 6.5 Domestic Credit to.