2009-2010 Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy A crisis generated in the centre and a recovery driven by the emerging economies 2 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Osvaldo Rosales Director of the Division of International Trade and Integration and document coordinator Susana Malchik Officer in Charge Documents and Publications Division Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy is an annual report prepared by the Division of International Trade and Integration of ECLAC. The Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division, ECLAC subregional headquarters for the Caribbean and ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico assisted with the preparation of this year’s edition. The production of the report was overseen by Osvaldo Rosales, Director of the Division of International Trade and Integration. Mikio Kuwayama, Chief of the International Trade Unit, was responsible for its technical coordination. In addition to Osvaldo Rosales and Mikio Kuwayama, the following assisted in the preparation of the chapters: Mariano Alvarez, Dillon Alleyne, Georgina Cipoletta Tomassian, Jaime Contador, José Elías Durán, Myriam Echeverría, Michael Hendrickson, Sebastián Herreros, German King, Marcelo LaFleur, Roberto Machado, José Carlos Mattos, Nanno Mulder, Andrea Pellandra, Esteban Pérez, Gabriel Pérez, Daniel Perrotti, Ricardo Sánchez, Indira Romiro, Hirohito Toda, Varinia Tromben and Maricel Ulloa. Input for chapter IV on trade policy trends in the Caribbean was provided by Marie E.A. Freckleton, senior lecturer at the Department of Economics of the University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica. Chapter V was prepared by Shigeru Kochi, research associate at the Division of International Trade and Integration and lecturer at the University of Aoyama, Tokyo, Japan. Notes The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Survey: Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified. United Nations Publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121742-1 E-ISBN: 978-92-1-054522-8 ISSN: 1680-8657 LC/G.2467-P Sales No.: E.10.II.G.5 Copyright © United Nations, December 2010. All rights reserved Printed in Santiago, Chile Requests for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States of America. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy • 2009-2010 3 Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 9 Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 11 Chapter I A crisis created in the centre and a recovery driven by the emerging economies .......................... 29 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 29 B. Crisis and recovery: the world and trade blocs ............................................................................................. 31 1. The world economy and finance ............................................................................................................. 31 2. Strengthening international cooperation ................................................................................................. 33 3. Global trade ............................................................................................................................................. 34 4. The crisis and financing for trade ............................................................................................................ 38 C. Trade trends in the main countries and regions of the world ........................................................................ 39 1. Overview of the main trade policy measures during the crisis................................................................ 39 2. Recent evolution of trade policies in the global economy ...................................................................... 41 D. Recent evolution of trade in the region’s principal trade partners ................................................................. 43 1. United States ........................................................................................................................................... 43 2. European Union ....................................................................................................................................... 44 3. Asia .......................................................................................................................................................... 45 4. Short- and medium-term prospects ......................................................................................................... 46 5. The emerging economies in the global environment and South-South trade .......................................... 48 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................................... 52 Chapter II A decade of regional trade: an overview ..................................................................................................... 55 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 55 B. Regional trade during the crisis and post-crisis periods ................................................................................ 56 1. Trade in goods ......................................................................................................................................... 56 2. Trade in services ...................................................................................................................................... 58 3. The region’s trade performance, by origin and destination ..................................................................... 58 4. The region’s trade, by product category .................................................................................................. 64 C. Trade policy responses during and after the crisis ........................................................................................ 65 D. Preliminary overview of export performance in the 2000s ........................................................................... 68 1. The overall picture ................................................................................................................................... 69 2. Exports of natural resources and manufactures ....................................................................................... 72 4 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 3. Service exports ........................................................................................................................................ 76 4. Changes in the structure of trade in goods and services during the 2000s .............................................. 78 5. Concentration and diversification in the region’s trade in goods, by product and destination market ................................................................................................................................... 79 6. Intra-industry integration ......................................................................................................................... 80 7. Intraregional trade during the past decade .............................................................................................. 81 E. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................... 85 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................................... 87 Annex ................................................................................................................................................................... 89 Chapter III The trade dimension of regional integration .............................................................................................. 93 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 93 B. Recent developments in the different subregional schemes .......................................................................... 94 1. MERCOSUR ........................................................................................................................................... 94 2. Andean Community ................................................................................................................................ 95 3. Central American Common Market (CACM) ........................................................................................