Section 5.4.2: Risk Assessment – Drought 5.4.2 Drought The following section provides the hazard profile (hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences and losses, probability of future occurrences, and impact of climate change) and vulnerability assessment for the drought hazard in Dutchess County. 5.4.2.1 Profile Hazard Description Drought is a period characterized by long durations of below normal precipitation. Drought is a temporary irregularity and differs from aridity since the latter is restricted to low rainfall regions and is a permanent feature of climate. Drought conditions occur in virtually all climatic zones yet its characteristics vary significantly from one region to another, since it is relative to the normal precipitation in that region. Drought can affect agriculture, water supply, aquatic ecology, wildlife, and plant life. There are four different ways that drought can be defined or grouped: x Meteorological drought is a measure of departure of precipitation from normal. It is defined solely on the relative degree of dryness. Due to climatic differences, what might be considered a drought in one location of the country may not be a drought in another location. x Agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological (or hydrological) drought to agricultural impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil water deficits, reduced ground water or reservoir levels, and other parameters. It occurs when there is not enough water available for a particular crop to grow at a particular time. Agricultural drought is defined in terms of soil moisture deficiencies relative to water demands of plant life, primarily crops. x Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of periods of precipitation shortfalls (including snowfall) on surface or subsurface water supply. It occurs when these water supplies are below normal. It is related to the effects of precipitation shortfalls on stream flows and reservoir, lake, and groundwater levels. x Socioeconomic drought is associated with the supply and demand of an economic good with elements of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought. This differs from the aforementioned types of drought because its occurrence depends on the time and space processes of supply and demand to identify or classify droughts. The supply of many economic goods depends on weather (for example water, forage, food grains, fish, and hydroelectric power). Socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply (National Drought Mitigation Center 2014). Location Climate divisions are regions within a state that are climatically homogenous. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has divided the U.S. into 359 climate divisions. The boundaries of these divisions typically coincide with the county boundaries, except in the western U.S., where they are based largely on drainage basins (U.S. Energy Information Administration, Date Unknown). According to NOAA, New York State is made up of 10 climate divisions: Western Plateau, Eastern Plateau, Northern Plateau, Coastal, Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley, Champlain Valley, St. Lawrence Valley, Great Lakes, and Central Lakes (NOAA 2014). Dutchess County is located in the Hudson Valley Climate Division. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.2-1 February 2016 Section 5.4.2: Risk Assessment – Drought New York State is divided into nine drought management regions based roughly on drainage basin and county lines. NYSDEC monitors precipitation, lake and reservoir levels, stream flow, and groundwater level at least monthly in each region and more frequently during periods of drought. NYSDEC uses this data to assess the condition of each region, which can range from "normal" to "drought disaster" (NYSDEC 2015). Figure 5.4.2-1 shows the drought regions of New York State with Dutchess County circled. Dutchess County is located within the Catskills Drought Region. Figure 5.4.2-1. Drought Regions of New York State Source: NYSDEC 2008 Note: The red circle indicates the location of Dutchess County Extent The severity of a drought depends on the degree of moisture deficiency, the duration, and the size and location of the affected area. The longer the duration of the drought and the larger the area impacted, the more severe the potential impacts (NOAA Date Unknown). The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) and the New York State Drought Management Task Force identifies droughts in the following four stages: x Normal is considered the standard moisture soil levels found throughout New York State x Drought Watch is the first stage of drought. This stage is declared by the NYSDEC and is intended to give advance notice of a developing drought. As this stage, the general public is urged to conserve water. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.2-2 February 2016 Section 5.4.2: Risk Assessment – Drought Public water purveyors and industries are urged to update and begin to implement individual drought contingency plans. x Drought Warning is the second stage of drought. This stage is also declared by the NYSDEC and is a notice of impending and imminent severe drought conditions. A warning declaration includes stepping up public awareness and increasing voluntary conservation. Public water supply purveyors and industries are urged to continue to implement local drought contingency plans. Federal, state and local water resources agencies are notified to prepare for emergency response measures. x Drought Emergency is the third stage of drought. This stage is declared by the NYSDHSES, based upon recommendation of the Task Force. It is a notice of existing severe and persistent drought conditions. An emergency declaration is a notice for local water resources agencies to mandate conservation and implement other emergency response measures. A continuing and worsening drought emergency may result in the New York State governor declaring a drought disaster. It is a notice of the most severe and persistent drought conditions. At this stage, a significant proportion of communities in the impacted area likely are unable to respond adequately. New York State uses two methodologies to determine the various drought stages. The Palmer Drought Index (PDI) is a commonly used drought indicator and is primarily based on soil conditions. These are typically the first indicators that a moisture deficit is present. These values range from -1 to +5 with positive values indicating wetter conditions and negative values representing drier conditions (NYS DHSES 2014). The second methodology used by New York State was developed by the NYSDEC and is referred to as the State Drought Index (SDI). The SDI evaluates drought conditions on a more comprehensive basis by measuring whether numerous indicators reach dire thresholds. The data collected is compared against critical threshold values to show a normal or changeable drought condition. The indicators are weighted on a regional basis to reflect the unique circumstances of each drought management region (NYS DHSES 2014). Previous Occurrences and Losses Between 1954 and 2015, New York State experienced one FEMA declared drought-related major declaration (DR) classified as a water shortage. Generally, these disasters cover a wide region of the State; therefore, they may have impacted many counties. Dutchess County was included in this declaration (FEMA 2015). Agriculture-related drought disasters are quite common. One-half to two-thirds of the counties in the U.S. have been designated as disaster areas in each of the past several years. The USDA Secretary of Agriculture is authorized to designate counties as disaster areas to make emergency loans to producers suffering losses in those counties and in counties that are contiguous to a designated county. Between 2012 and mid-2015, New York State has been included in 27 USDA declarations. Of those 27 declarations, Dutchess County has been included in eight of the declarations; however, only two of them were a result of drought conditions (S3427 in 2012 and S3759 in 2014). For this 2015 Plan Update, known drought events, including FEMA and USDA disasters, that have impacted Dutchess County between 1990 and 2015 are identified in Table 5.4.2-1. Please note that not all events that have occurred in the County are included due to the extent of documentation and the fact that not all sources may have been identified or researched. Loss and impact information could vary depending on the source. Therefore, the accuracy of monetary figures discussed is based only on the available information identified during research for this HMP Update. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – Dutchess County, New York 5.4.2-3 February 2016 Section 5.4.2: Risk Assessment – Drought Table 5.4.2-1. Drought Events Impacting Dutchess County, 1990 to 2015 FEMA Declaration County Dates of Event Event Type Number Designated? Losses / Impacts A four month drought impacted several counties in New York State including: Albany, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene, Otsego, Rensselaer, Schoharie, Sullivan, and Ulster. The damage from the drought primarily affected the agriculture sector's feed grain. The August – estimate losses were over 40% and in some areas nearly 100% in feed losses. There were Drought N/A N/A December 1993 significant losses in hay, corn, and a few other