Town of Halifax, Massachusetts Integrated Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Plan (MVP-HMP) Community Resilience Building Workshop Summary of Findings Prepared by Old Colony Planning Council April 2021 1 SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 12 STUDY PURPOSE .......................................................................................................................................................... 12 THE COMMONWEALTH’S CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY ........................................................................................................ 13 COORDINATING ROLE OF THE REGIONAL PLANNING AGENCY ................................................................................................ 14 PLANNING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE FEDERAL DISASTER MITIGATION ACT ........................................................................... 14 WHAT IS A HAZARD MITIGATION AND MUNICIPAL VULNERABLE PREPAREDNESS PLAN? ............................................................ 15 What is a Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness Plan? ...................................................................................... 16 How does the Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness Planning Process Augment Other Hazard Mitigation Planning? ............................................................................................................................................................ 16 Why Update? ...................................................................................................................................................... 16 MASSACHUSETTS CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS .............................................................................................................. 17 Resilient MA Climate Change Clearinghouse for the Commonwealth ................................................................ 20 SECTION 2. COMMUNITY PROFILE, LAND USE, AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ...................................................... 33 SECTION 2. HAZARD MITIGATION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION GOALS ................................................................ 34 MITIGATION GOALS FROM THE 2015 OLD COLONY PLANNING COUNCIL REGIONAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN ............................ 34 Cost Benefit Review from 2015 OCPC Regional HMP .......................................................................................... 35 MITIGATION MEASURES FROM 2015 OLD COLONY REGIONAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN ........................................................ 36 2015 HALIFAX MITIGATION ACTION PLAN ........................................................................................................................ 40 SECTION 3. COMMUNITY PROFILE, LAND USE, AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ...................................................... 61 COMMUNITY PROFILE ................................................................................................................................................... 61 Regional Context ................................................................................................................................................. 61 History of the Community ................................................................................................................................... 62 Demographic Profile ........................................................................................................................................... 65 Land Use and Development Trends..................................................................................................................... 79 THE DISTRICT AND ITS ECONOMY .................................................................................................................................... 88 County Population Change .................................................................................................................................. 88 Employment Trends and Occupations ................................................................................................................ 96 Industry ............................................................................................................................................................... 96 Occupations ........................................................................................................................................................ 97 Workforce Characteristics ................................................................................................................................... 98 SECTION 4. INTRODUCTION TO RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................ 101 PROFILING THE NATURAL HAZARDS ............................................................................................................................... 101 NATURAL HAZARDS ASSESSED ...................................................................................................................................... 102 Sectors Assessed ............................................................................................................................................... 105 Populations ....................................................................................................................................................... 106 Built Environment ............................................................................................................................................. 108 CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................................. 114 How Climate Change Affects Hazard Mitigation .............................................................................................. 116 TECHNIQUES AND APPROACHES .................................................................................................................................... 116 HAZARD PROFILE KEY TERMS ........................................................................................................................................ 116 STATE CLIMATE EXTREMES ........................................................................................................................................... 118 SECTION 5. RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................................................... 119 FLOOD-RELATED HAZARDS ........................................................................................................................................... 119 Inland Flooding (Including Dam Overtopping) .................................................................................................. 122 2 Sectors Assessed ............................................................................................................................................... 145 PRIMARY CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACTION – CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION ............................................................................... 155 DROUGHT ................................................................................................................................................................. 156 Drought Assessment and Determination .......................................................................................................... 159 Sectors Assessed ............................................................................................................................................... 172 LANDSLIDE ................................................................................................................................................................ 177 Hazard Profile ................................................................................................................................................... 179 Previous Occurrences ........................................................................................................................................ 179 Warning Time ................................................................................................................................................... 180 Sectors Assessed ............................................................................................................................................... 181 PRIMARY CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACTION: SEA LEVEL RISE ................................................................................................ 184 Coastal Flooding................................................................................................................................................ 186 Previous Occurrences ........................................................................................................................................ 188 Warning Time ................................................................................................................................................... 189 COASTAL EROSION ..................................................................................................................................................... 191 Sections Assessed .............................................................................................................................................. 192 PRIMARY CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACTION: EXTREME