RADICALIZATION OF MUSLIMS IN THE BOSNIAN FEDERATION: IS THERE A POSSIBILITY? Maj N.B. Bruic JCSP 41 PCEMI 41 Master of Defence Studies Maîtrise en études de la défense Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs do not represent Department of National Defence or et ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used Ministère de la Défense nationale ou des Forces without written permission. canadiennes. Ce papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2015. le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2015. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE – COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 41 – PCEMI 41 2014 – 2015 MASTER OF DEFENCE STUDIES – MAÎTRISE EN ÉTUDES DE LA DÉFENSE RADICALIZATION OF MUSLIMS IN THE BOSNIAN FEDERATION: IS THERE A POSSIBILITY? By Maj N.B. Bruic “This paper was written by a student “La présente étude a été rédigée par un attending the Canadian Forces College stagiaire du Collège des Forces in fulfilment of one of the requirements canadiennes pour satisfaire à l'une des of the Course of Studies. The paper is a exigences du cours. L'étude est un scholastic document, and thus contains document qui se rapporte au cours et facts and opinions, which the author contient donc des faits et des opinions alone considered appropriate and que seul l'auteur considère appropriés et correct for the subject. It does not convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète pas necessarily reflect the policy or the nécessairement la politique ou l'opinion opinion of any agency, including the d'un organisme quelconque, y compris le Government of Canada and the gouvernement du Canada et le ministère Canadian Department of National de la Défense nationale du Canada. Il est Defence. This paper may not be défendu de diffuser, de citer ou de released, quoted or copied, except with reproduire cette étude sans la permission the express permission of the Canadian expresse du ministère de la Défense Department of National Defence.” nationale.” Word Count: 18053 Compte de mots : 18053 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 2 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 4 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. 4 ABSTACT ...................................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 1-INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 2 – THEORIES OF RADICALIZATION ................................................................. 17 Radical Islam ............................................................................................................................. 21 Models and Means to Radicalization ........................................................................................ 25 Significance-Quest Model of Radicalization ............................................................................ 27 Moghaddam’s Staircase to Terrorism and Randy Borum's Four-Stage Model ........................ 30 Social Movement Theory .......................................................................................................... 33 The Narrative in Islamic Radicalization.................................................................................... 37 Radicalization Foundations ....................................................................................................... 41 CHAPTER 3 – BOSNIA .............................................................................................................. 45 Brief History of Islam in Bosnia ............................................................................................... 45 Foreign Presence in Bosnia ....................................................................................................... 54 Saudi Arabia’s Influence ........................................................................................................... 54 Iranian Influence ....................................................................................................................... 59 Turkey’s Influence .................................................................................................................... 62 Mujahidin Influence .................................................................................................................. 64 Bosnian Governance ................................................................................................................. 66 Bosnian Economy ..................................................................................................................... 71 3 Bosnian Narrative ...................................................................................................................... 74 Religious and Political Narrative in Bosnia .............................................................................. 78 CHAPTER 4 - RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION ................................................. 81 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................... 86 4 List of Figures Figure 1.1 - Eight types of threat from Radical Islam .................................................................. 23 Figure 1.2 - A Significance-Quest Model of Radicalization ........................................................ 27 Figure 1.3 - Moghaddam’s Staircase to Terrorism ....................................................................... 31 Figure 1.4 - Randy Borum's Four-Stage Model of the Terrorist Mindset .................................... 32 Figure 1.5 - Emotion Associated with Joining Al-Shabaab .......................................................... 42 Figure 1.6 - Interviewees’ Reasons for Joining Al-Shabaab ........................................................ 42 List of Tables Table 1.1 - Pathways to Violence ................................................................................................. 25 5 ABSTACT In the two decades since the end of Bosnian war, Bosnia has been pierced with incidents related to radical and militant Islam. The Wahhabis have become part of Bosnian mosaic along with a narrative that securitizes religion and ethnicity. There are concerns that Bosnia is or will become breading and training grounds for Islamic radicals at the footsteps of Europe. This paper identifies some of incidents related to radical Islam and provides a perspective on the presence of foreign Islamic actors and their activities in Bosnia. The history of Islam and its influence was researched to confirm that Islam has always been a part of the Bosnian fabric regardless of the ideology of rulers, whether Christian Austro-Hungary Empire or atheist communist. The last two decades are marked with revival of Islam which greatly influenced mindset of post-war Bosnia. Religion and politics are closely related in today’s Bosnia where politicians use religion as a tool to keep reconciliation process from progressing. Radicalization theories have been discussed to conclude that poor economy, corrupt inefficient governments and narratives contribute to the radicalization process. Bosnia has historically had a very weak and corrupt governance structure that is not trusted by either locals or the international community. This prevents stakeholders from investing in Bosnia and gives Bosnia the status of being the poorest county in south-east Europe. Therefore, the Bosnian narrative is one of intolerance and securitization of religion and ethnicity. Although, there are signs of radical and militant Islam taking root within Muslim communities in the Bosnian Federation, this can be reversed by improving governance structures which will in turn improve economy and the state’s narrative. These structural and policy reforms will reduce radical and militant Islamic influences to insignificant annoyance. 6 CHAPTER 1-INTRODUCTION It has been almost twenty years after the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereafter Bosnia), also known as Dayton Peace Agreement or Dayton Accord, came into effect on 21 November 1995. After three years of bloodshed, the war ended when the Dayton Accord was signed.1 The agreement separated warring parties into two entities under one central government. The larger entity became the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is comprised of two ethnic groups of people: Bosniaks, who are Muslims; and Croats, who are Roman Catholic Christians. The second entity became the Republika Srpska (RS), which is predominantly made up of Serbian Orthodox Christians.2 This arrangement paved the way to peace, and the Dayton Peace Agreement is often cited as an example of success by the international community in resolving conflict. This is of particular importance with regards to the managing of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.3 However, there are many critics of the agreement because despite stopping hostility, this arrangement did not effectively prepare Bosnia