EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ECONOMIC RECOVERY WITH RENEWABLES Job creation and household savings for a sustainable model greenpeace.es INDEX Introduction 4 Methodology 5 2030 energy scenarios 7 JOB CREATION AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC BENEFITS THANKS TO RENEWABLES 9 Investment impact through the period 2015-2030 9 Job creation Worker profile Increase in GDP Impact on electricity generation with renewable energies in 2030 13 Job creation Increase in GDP Fiscal consequences 16 CO2 emissions reductions 17 CREDITS This summary has been elaborated by Alicia Cantero and Marina Bevacqua from the reports “El impacto de las energías renovables en la economía” and “El impacto de las energías renovables en los hogares” carried out for Greenpeace by Abay Analistas Económicos y Sociales. Design and development: Rebeca Porras Edition: María Torrens Tillack October 2014 2 ECONOMIC RECOVERY WITH RENEWABLES TOWARDS A CHEAPER ENERGY FUTURE THANKS TO RENEWABLES, EFFICIENCY AND INTELLIGENCE 19 Current situation of energy expenditure 19 Evolution of energy costs since the start of the crisis 22 Renewable energy incentives and the rise in the electricity bill Increase in household energy poverty Evolution of energy expenditure in the distinct 2030 scenarios 22 Electricity bill Family energy consumption Household costs Impact by type of household Most vulnerable groups to see greatest benefit in the responsible scenario Data by autonomous regions Conclusions 28 Greenpeace demands 30 Glossary 31 References 32 ANNEXE Description of energy scenarios 2030 34 GREENPEACE SPAIN 3 INTRODUCTION A change in the energy the Spanish Government has blocked with renewables), offers a detailed model that moves away from the development of clean energies, vision on the effect that a real fossil fuels and towards an energy policy U-turn, whose breakthrough in renewables would renewable energies is key to maximum expression is the new 2013 have on the economy, employment and Energy Sector Law. This retroactively the cost in household energy bills from tackling climate change, but removes renewable energy incentives 2015 to 2030. It delves into the effects also to economic progress, and the special schemes that included of energy costs on people, above all, employment and peoples’ the support for these energies. The the most vulnerables, obliged to spend wallets. A clear proof of this Government has committed to fossil excessive amounts of their incomes on can be found in this Greenpeace fuels, the search for new hydrocarbons electricity and gas. through fracking, off-shore drilling at the executive summary based Canary Islands, Costa del Sol/Alborán This Greenpeace report offers more on two extensive reports by Sea, Balearic Islands/Gulf of Valencia, arguments and information that enrich Abay Analistas Económicos y Catalonia and Cantabrian Sea3. the debate on renewables’ contribution Sociales1 for the environmental to a sustainable future, not only to the organisation. So, how has Spain gone from leading environment, but also socially and the change towards renewables, to economically, as well as the need for blaming them for rising energy bills and their urgent development. The current energy system based on the tariff deficit4? The main reason is oil, gas and coal is the main cause of the threat to major energy companies’ global warming. According to United bulk investments in fossil fuels, which Nations’ experts, we must keep global has led to formidable lobbying5. temperature increases below 2ºC and leave at least two thirds of known fossil This year, the European Union decides fuel reserves in the ground if we are on energy and climate goals for to escape the worst impacts of climate 2030, an opportunity that the Spanish change. Government should take advantage of, to put Spain back at the forefront The Greenpeace Energy 3.02 report of world leadership in renewables has already shown that an efficient development and to put an end to 86.2% system is technically and economically dependence on foreign energy supplies. feasible, with smart demand-side The real solution lies in clean energy. management and technology based 100% on renewable energies. The study La recuperación económica Nevertheless, in the last few years, con renovables6 (Economic recovery 4 ECONOMIC RECOVERY WITH RENEWABLES METHODOLOGY The study measures how the fiscal aspect and the reduction in CO2 growth of renewable energies emissions within each scenario. would affect the economy, jobs and the cost of energy in different The development of renewables along with energy efficiency measures and households in three distinct intelligence9 in the distinct scenarios scenarios with a view to 2030. will also affect households’ economies through energy bills10. To understand Two different types of comparative the impact, a microsimulation model11 analyses have been undertaken: one has been designed using the Encuesta called ‘input-output,’ which measures de Presupuestos Familiares (Family the impact of investment in renewable Budget Survey) (INE, 2012) permitting electricity generation on the economy the obtention of tailored data for as a whole, and a microsimulation each type of household and more model to determine the impact of accurately assess the effects of the the advance of clean energies on different measures in each scenario. households. The analysis considers the variation on the energy bill among the different The input-output analysis is a tool that households in each scenario and is used to gauge the economic impact measures the effort that each type of of some sectors on others and provides household would have to make to pay detailed information on an important the bill according to the percentage of number of macroeconomic variables, income assigned to this expense. such as gross domestic product or employment. The database has been put together using the latest input- output tables (IOT) published by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Office of National Statistics) (INE, 2012)7. Furthermore, the electricity sector has been subdivided into eight sectors, six of them of renewable energies8. The impact assessment is complemented by three analyses on the specific effects on job creation, the GREENPEACE SPAIN 5 2030 ENERGY SCENARIOS The three energy scenarios CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO. utilised in this report relate to This reflects the situation in 2030 if 2030. They demonstrate how we remain committed to a limited much energy would be used, reduction in polluting emissions. Its high percentage of conventional how it would be supplied and energies and high energy demand what proportion of renewable is environmentally unsustainable. sources would cover the Electricity would cover more than 28% demand. They present distinct of total energy consumption and the trajectories, highly advanced to proportion of renewable electricity generation would be 29.6%14. less advanced, in order to reach a smart, efficient and 100% PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO. renewable energy system by Renewables, efficiency measures 205013. and intelligence are gradually and proportionally incorporated into the energy mix. Energy demand is less than The scenarios vary in relation to the in the conservative scenario but more pace of renunciation of fossil fuels and than in the responsible one. Electricity nuclear power for their substitution by would cover 33.5% of total energy renewables. The way in which energy consumption. Renewable electricity demand is met is also different, with generation in this scenario would rise ever increasing usage in sectors like to 67.6%. transport or heating/air conditioning. The total final energy consumption is RESPONSIBLE SCENARIO. very distinct, also characterised by the To tackle climate change, we would different degrees of implementation of see the intensified incorporation of energy efficiency measures, self-supply renewables, efficiency and intelligence. and intelligence. Compared to the other scenarios, energy demand would considerably The three scenarios compared in decline and we would be able to almost this study are a development to 2030 completely dispense with fossil fuels. of those undertaken in the Energy Electricity would cover 42.5% of total 3.0 report. Economic Recovery with energy demand and would supply a Renewables analyses the economic large part of transport and heating/air and social impact of these technical conditioning consumption. Renewable scenarios in Spain: electricity generation in this scenario would rise to 94.7%. GREENPEACE SPAIN 7 8 ECONOMIC RECOVERY WITH RENEWABLES MAIN FINDINGS JOB CREATION AND OTHER ECONOMIC BENEFITS THANKS TO RENEWABLES The progressive replacement Table 1 Economic and environmental benefits of investing in renewables of conventional energies for Source: Abay Analistas for Greenpeace renewables into the energy JOBS system would be a boost for the PRODUCTION (full-time equivalent, FTE) country’s economy and jobs. Period 2015-2030 Millions of Rate of Number of Rate of Strong investment in new renewable euros change jobs (FTE) change (%) compared to plants would be one of the principle 2012 (%) drivers towards considerable economic growth and rising employment in the Conservative scenario 150,383 8.10% 823,200 4.76% considered period, 2015-2030. It would Progressive scenario 377,567 20.3% 2,106,879 12.2% also be an important source of income Responsible scenario 545,160 22.7% 3,053,163 17.7% through the taxation of renewable energy enterprises, for the most part, local administrations. IMPACT OF INVESTMENT OVER Renewable electric power generation