Nuclear Deterrence: Problems and Perspectives in the 1990's UNIDIR/93/26 UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva Nuclear Deterrence: Problems and Perspectives in the 1990's Edited by Serge Sur UNITED NATIONS New York, 1993 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. * * * The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Secretariat. UNIDIR/93/26 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. GV.E.93.0.16 ISBN 92-9045-084-3 UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research UNIDIR is an autonomous institution within the framework of the United Nations. It was established in 1980 by the General Assembly for the purpose of undertaking independent research on disarmament and related problems, particularly international security issues. The work of the Institute aims at: 1. Providing the international community with more diversified and complete data on problems relating to international security, the armaments race, and disarmament in all fields, particularly in the nuclear field, so as to facilitate progress, through negotiations, towards greater security for all States and toward the economic and social development of all peoples; 2. Promoting informed participation by all States in disarmament efforts; 3. Assisting ongoing negotiations in disarmament and continuing efforts to ensure greater international security at a progressively lower level of armaments, particularly nuclear armaments, by means of objective and factual studies and analyses; 4. 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(41.22) 917.42.93/917.42.56 Fax (41.22) 917.01.23 iii Table of Contents Page Preface....................................................................... ix List of Acronyms............................................................... xi Opening Addresses ............................................................ xiii Sverre Lodgaard ........................................................... xiii Amiral Lanxade ........................................................... xv Part I The Future of Nuclear Deterrence ............................. 1 Chapter 1 Nuclear Deterrence Revisited Serge Sur .................................................... 3 Chapter 2 Recent and Prospective Developments in Nuclear Arsenals Michael Brown .............................................. 17 Chapter 3 Responses ................................................. 45 Vicente Berasategui ........................................... 45 David Fischer ................................................ 47 Alexei Arbatov ............................................... 47 Sverre Lodgaard .............................................. 48 Morton H. Halperin .......................................... 49 Miljan Komatina ............................................. 50 Regina Cowen Karp ........................................... 55 John Simpson ................................................ 55 Tibor Tóth .................................................. 56 Mahmoud Karem ............................................. 57 Gérard Errera ............................................... 58 Serge Sur ................................................... 58 Michael Brown .............................................. 59 Part II Proliferation and Non-Proliferation ........................... 61 Chapter 4 Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation Jasjit Singh .................................................. 63 Chapter 5 The Future of the Multilateral Non-Proliferation Regime David Fischer ................................................ 77 v vi Nuclear Deterrence: Problems and Perspectives in the 1990's )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) Chapter 6 Threshold States and Regional Non-Proliferation ................. 83 Section I - Nuclear Threshold States: Consequences for Deterrence Shai Feldman ............................................... 83 Section II - Middle East Mahmoud Karem ............................................ 86 Chapter 7 Responses ................................................. 89 Gérard Errera ............................................... 89 Miguel Marin-Bosch .......................................... 89 Morton H. Halperin .......................................... 90 Ronald F. Lehman ............................................ 91 Emeka Ayo Azikiwe .......................................... 93 Michael Brown .............................................. 93 Yong-Sup Han ............................................... 94 Walter Gehr ................................................ 95 John Simpson ................................................ 95 Mahmoud Karem ............................................. 96 Jasjit Singh .................................................. 96 David Fischer ................................................ 97 Part III Conditions for Minimal Deterrence ................................ 99 Chapter 8 Questioning Minimal Deterrence Yves Boyer ................................................. 101 Chapter 9 Outer Space and Nuclear Deterrence: Problems and Prospects Péricles Gasparini Alves ....................................... 105 Chapter 10 The Debate on Minimal Deterrence ........................... 117 Section I - Alexei Arbatov ............................................. 117 Section II - Regina Cowen Karp ......................................... 122 Section III - Tibor Tóth ............................................... 124 Chapter 11 Responses ................................................ 127 Hou Zhitong ............................................... 127 Michael Brown ............................................. 128 André Dumoulin ............................................ 131 Morton H. Halperin ......................................... 133 Dieter Boden ............................................... 134 Gérard Errera .............................................. 135 Hendrik Wagenmakers ........................................ 136 John Simpson ............................................... 136 Raimundo Gonzales .......................................... 137 Table of Contents vii )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) Tibor Tóth ................................................. 138 Regina Cowen Karp .......................................... 138 Alexei Arbatov .............................................. 138 Yves Boyer ................................................. 140 Part IV Minimal Deterrence, Stabilisation or Transition .............. 143 Chapter 12 Minimal Deterrence and Regional Security ..................... 145 Section I - Europe: Nicole Gnesotto ...................................... 145 Section II - Other Regions: Emeka Ayo Azikiwe ............................ 148 Chapter 13 Ways and Means of Attaining Minimal Deterrence Dieter Boden ............................................... 151 Chapter 14 Responses ................................................ 155 Hendrik Wagenmakers ........................................ 155 Yoshitomo Tanaka ........................................... 155 David Fischer ............................................... 156 Jasjit Singh ................................................. 156 Pierre Hassner .............................................. 157 Gérard Errera .............................................. 158 Walter Gehr ............................................... 159 Mahmoud Karem ............................................ 159 Vicente Berasategui .......................................... 160 John Simpson ............................................... 161 Alexei Arbatov .............................................. 161 Dieter Boden ............................................... 162 Emeka Ayo Azikiwe ......................................... 162 Nicole Gnesotto ............................................. 162 Concluding Remarks: Ronald F. Lehman ....................................... 165 Preface Few strategic doctrines raise as many controversies as nuclear deterrence. Some are philosophical, ideological or political in nature and question its legitimacy in regards to the considerable risks that it implies, or to the inequality between nations that it upholds. Others are of a technical character and develop, in an unlimited way, possible scenarios, corresponding arms systems, and foreseeable interactions between partners. Still others have a retrospective or historic dimension, notably when it comes to evaluating the past efficiency of nuclear deterrence and appraising its contribution to the maintenance of peace - for deterrence strives to be a doctrine of peace maintenance, its organizing principle being that of non-use. The present