UNITED NATIONS HUMANITARIAN UPDATE vol. 35 4 September – 10 September 2008 Office of the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in Kenya HIGHLIGHTS • A crisis situation is emerging in the Mandera districts due to consecutive failed rains; forecasts suggest that the situation may continue to deteriorate after the short rains. • The Kenyan Red Cross reported that there are 13,164 IDPs in 10 main IDP camps; the KRCS, WFP and an interagency assessment noted that there were at least 99,198 IDPs in 160 transit sites; the Government reported that 234,098 IDPs had returned to pre- displacement areas by 28 August. • UNICEF highlighted that over 95,000 children under the age of five and pregnant and breastfeeding women are malnourished. Of that number, 10,000 are severely malnourished. • A diarrhoea outbreak in Bungoma East, Bungoma West and Mount Elgon districts kills six while at least 171 seek treatment according to the Kenya Red Cross. The information contained in this report has been compiled by OCHA from information received from the field, from national and international humanitarian partners and from other official sources. It does not represent a position from the United Nations. This report is posted on: http://ochaonline.un.org/kenya I. General Overview Six months after the contested General Election in Kenya led to widespread post election violence (PEV) and the eventual formation of a Grand Coalition Government, a Gallup Poll was conducted to obtain popular opinions on past grievances, satisfaction with the current leadership and the way forward. Conducted between 19 June and 9 July across all provinces in Kenya, the Poll included a sample of 2,200 people. The results suggest that there is widespread speculation that the General Election was not conducted honestly: 70% of those polled questioned the veracity of the results. Measured against historical figures, confidence in the democratic system has declined from 63% in 2006 to only 22% in 2008 while confidence in the judicial system declined form 55% in 2007 to only 36% in 2008. Meanwhile, the conduct of the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) has been under intense scrutiny by the Commissions of Inquiry into the Post-Election Violence (CIPEV) and the Poll reported that 68% of those questioned held the ECK directly responsible for the PEV. The most pressing issues for the Government to address moving forward. Gallup Poll, 8 September The CIPEV is currently compiling its report after hearing public testimony and there have been widespread calls for the final report to be made public so as to ensure that those behind the violence are held accountable. The heated debate and close divisions in society over whether perpetrators of PEV should be given amnesty was reconfirmed during the Poll: 48% said that those who have been arrested should be prosecuted and sentenced if found guilty; 23% said they should be prosecuted but given amnesty if found guilty and 28% said they should be released without a trial. However, there were positive signs that reconciliation could transcend the amnesty debate as an overwhelming majority (82%) agreed that they could coexist peacefully in their city or community with all Kenyans, regardless of their ethnicity or tribal affiliation. As Kenyan households feel the pressure of increased inflation with rising commodity prices, the issues of economic security and development were highlighted in the Poll as key areas for the Government to address and only 7% of those polled felt that the return of IDPs was the most pressing issue. Meanwhile, in an effort to bolster public confidence in the economy, Kenya’s Central Bank announced that inflation was expected to fall below 20% by January 2009. Inflation rates in August were at 27.6%, up form 18.2% in January. II. Humanitarian Situation Crisis Situation in Mandera West District The situation in the Mandera districts is worsening and humanitarian partners, including Action Against Hunger, Save the Children UK, Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse and Islamic Relief, report that a crisis situation is emerging. Water resources have been depleted after consecutive failed rains in 2007 and 2008 and the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts that the forthcoming short rains will be only near normal to below normal throughout most of the northeast, including Mandera. Meanwhile, many wells and water pans have dried up and some communities have relied on trucked water for the past two months. Furthermore, an influx of pastoralists from neighbouring countries is increasing the pressure on scarce resources. Approximately 80% of the population in the region are pastoralists whose coping mechanisms have been eroded due to the successive failed rains. Deteriorated quantity October – November -December 2008 Rainfall Forecast and quality of pasture areas has forced early Source: Kenya Meteorological Department migrations and herds to trek long distances, which has negatively impacted body conditions and milk production. Livestock diseases are also ravaging weakened herds, including peste des petits ruminants (PPR), which has killed some three million small ruminants since 2006. With a deteriorating livelihoods and food security situation in the region, malnutrition is also increasing: global acute malnutrition rates have increased in all divisions since 2007 (as of March Action Against Hunger, March 2008 2008) and are almost twice the 2 emergency level in some areas. Food prices have also increased between 60-120% in some areas while reduced access to water has led to poor hygiene and sanitation, which is increasing the spread of diseases. The deteriorating situation is also exacerbating resource-based conflicts and UN Department of Safety and Security reported that flashpoints are arising, particularly related to boreholes. Tensions are also high in the region related to the movement of militia over the border with Somalia. To address the critical situation in Mandera, urgent interventions are required, including increased funds for water trucking to the district; increased funding for ready-made supplementary feeding inputs (wet feeding); and increased funding for the general food distribution to cover all those in need. Food Security Noting that approximately 1.34 million are affected by food insecurity in Kenya, UNICEF highlighted that over 95,000 children under the age of five and pregnant and breastfeeding women are malnourished. Of that number, 10,000 are severely malnourished. According to the LRA, substantial areas of the northern, eastern pastoral and coastal clusters were highly food insecure (see areas highlighted in orange in the map). The Kenya Food Security Update highlighted that insufficient and erratic rainfall during the long rains has had a particularly negative impact on pastoralists’ livelihoods due to declined water availability and Kenya Food Security Update, (FEWSNET, USAID, WFP, Ministry of Agriculture and ALRMP) August 2008. Declining Livestock Prices in the agro-pastoral areas of Baringo district deteriorated pasture and livestock conditions. This has resulted in accelerated early migrations; loss in livestock body conditions, linked in part to increased and extensive trekking distances; increased susceptibility to livestock diseases (including PPR); and heightened conflict due to competition for scarce resources, resulting in loss of life and the rendering of pasture areas and markets inaccessible. Furthermore, the Update highlighted that the terms of trade for livestock have reduced, coupled with an increase in cereal and food prices (70-120% higher than the five-year average). Underscoring the urgency of the situation of the highly food insecure, UNICEF noted that in the drought-affected areas of northern and eastern Kenya, negative coping mechanisms are emerging, which could affect individuals’ long-term development, such as school drop-outs. According to the Update, the northern and eastern pastoral clusters, and significant areas of the agro-pastoral and marginal agricultural clusters had moderate deterioration in food security (see areas in yellow in the map above); approximately 500,000 persons are affected by moderate food insecurity in these areas. Many of the conditions affecting the pastoral cluster areas have also impacted food security in this group, while there was also an estimated 80% to near total crop failure in some agricultural areas. Furthermore, purchasing power was reduced due to a 60% increase in the price of food and non-food commodities since January. Due to the precarious food 3 security situation in these areas, the Update noted that if the short rains fail, agricultural households in this group will face an increasing livelihoods crisis. The Update highlighted that PEV-affected areas and parts of Mount Elgon district remain in the emergency phase. Many IDPs continue to rely on food assistance and the capacity of some communities who had provided assistance to IDPs is declining. Many IDPs and returnees therefore remain at an emergency phase because they have lost much of their capital and assets with which to re-build their livelihoods. They require urgent livelihoods support in addition to continued food assistance. It is estimated that 2.3 million MTs will be harvested between August and January 2009, which is 10% lower than the short-term average. The Update noted that the there is a 297,000 MT deficit in the strategic grain reserve to cover food needs during this period. The Government plans to import approximately 80,000 MTs of maize from South Africa by October, but will regulate imports so as to ensure that they have a minimal impact on national grain producer incomes. However, it is unlikely that producer prices will be affected as the FEWSNET Report on Market Prices highlighted that wholesale prices for white maize had increased by nearly a third in some markets between April and June. Maize prices are expected to stay above the historical average, which will continue to impact household food insecurity for those that depend on markets. WFP reported that a rapid food security assessment is being planned in the PEV- affected areas in September and October to review beneficiary needs after the September harvest.