FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 20, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Obama trails Romney Raleigh, N.C. – For the first time in PPP's monthly national polling since July 2010 Mitt Romney's taken a lead, albeit a small one, over Barack Obama. He's up 47-45. Romney has two main things going for him. He leads the President 45-36 with independents. And he's also benefiting from a much more unified party with 88% of Republicans committed to voting for him while only 83% of Democrats say they'll vote for Obama. Our national survey confirms the wide electability gap between Romney and the rest of the Republican candidate field. Obama leads both Newt Gingrich (49-44) and Ron Paul (46-41) by 5 points, Michele Bachmann (50-41) by 9, and Rick Perry (50-40) by 10. It continues to look like if GOP voters really want to defeat Obama they pretty much have to nominate Romney. One thing that could confound Romney's prospects is if a strong third party candidate entered the race. We find that pretty much all of the big names who have been mentioned for potential independent bids would take a lot more voters from Romney than Obama. The strongest potential independent candidate we tested is Donald Trump who gets 19% in a three way contest with Obama at 45% and Romney at 31%. The folks who say they would support Trump go for Romney 71-10 in a straight up head to head with Obama. Donald Trump's ego could potentially prove to be Obama's greatest asset for reelection in 2012. Others who get double digits as independent candidates are Ron Paul at 17% and Jon Huntsman at 11%. “The big picture on our national poll remains the same,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama/Romney is a toss up, Obama has an advantage on the rest of the Republican field, and a third party candidate could pave the way for Obama's reelection.” PPP surveyed 700 registered voters from December 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] National Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Q7 If the candidates for President next year were Barack Obama’s job performance? Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for? Approve .......................................................... 45% Barack Obama................................................ 50% Disapprove...................................................... 52% Michele Bachmann ......................................... 41% Not sure .......................................................... 3% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Undecided....................................................... 10% of Michele Bachmann? Q8 If the candidates for President next year were 30% Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Favorable........................................................ Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for? Unfavorable .................................................... 54% Barack Obama................................................ 49% Not sure .......................................................... 16% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 44% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? Undecided....................................................... 7% 34% Q9 If the candidates for President next year were Favorable........................................................ Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron Unfavorable .................................................... 55% Paul, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 11% Barack Obama................................................ 46% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Ron Paul......................................................... 41% of Ron Paul? Undecided....................................................... 13% 31% Favorable........................................................ Q10 If the candidates for President next year were Unfavorable .................................................... 52% Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 17% 50% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Barack Obama................................................ of Rick Perry? Rick Perry ....................................................... 40% Favorable........................................................ 21% Undecided....................................................... 10% Unfavorable .................................................... 66% Q11 If the candidates for President next year were 13% Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Not sure .......................................................... Romney, who would you vote for? Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Barack Obama................................................ 45% 47% Favorable........................................................ 35% Mitt Romney.................................................... 8% Unfavorable .................................................... 50% Undecided....................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 14% December 16-18, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 700 registered voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 If the candidates for President next year were Q16 If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who Romney, and independent Jon Huntsman, who would you vote for? would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 43% Barack Obama................................................ 43% Mitt Romney.................................................... 41% Mitt Romney.................................................... 37% Gary Johnson ................................................. 9% Jon Huntsman................................................. 11% Undecided....................................................... 7% Undecided....................................................... 8% Q13 If the candidates for President next year were Q17 If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and independent Ron Paul, who Romney, and independent Donald Trump, who would you vote for? would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 42% Barack Obama................................................ 45% Mitt Romney.................................................... 37% Mitt Romney.................................................... 31% Ron Paul......................................................... 17% Donald Trump ................................................. 19% Undecided....................................................... 4% Undecided....................................................... 5% Q14 If the candidates for President next year were Q18 If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and independent Michael Bloomberg, Romney, and independent Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for? who would you vote for? Barack Obama................................................ 43% Barack Obama................................................ 42% Mitt Romney.................................................... 41% Mitt Romney.................................................... 42% Michael Bloomberg ......................................... 8% Bernie Sanders ............................................... 7% Undecided....................................................... 8% Undecided....................................................... 9% Q15 If the candidates for President next year were Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Romney, and independent Rocky Anderson, conservative, or very conservative? who would you vote for? Very liberal...................................................... 12% Barack Obama................................................ 44% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 18% Mitt Romney.................................................... 43% Moderate......................................................... 27% Rocky Anderson.............................................. 4% Somewhat conservative.................................. 24% Undecided....................................................... 8% Very conservative ........................................... 19% Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman ........................................................... 50% Man................................................................