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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. From Insurgency to Stability Volume II: Insights from Selected Case Studies Angel Rabasa, John Gordon IV, Peter Chalk, Audra K. Grant, K. Scott McMahon, Stephanie Pezard, Caroline Reilly, David Ucko, S. Rebecca Zimmerman Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H- 06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data From insurgency to stability / Angel Rabasa ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5299-5 (pbk. : v. 1 : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8330-5314-5 (pbk. : v. 2 : alk. paper) 1. Counterinsurgency. 2. Counterinsurgency —Case studies. 3. Peace-building— Case studies. 4. United States—Armed Forces—Stability operations—Case studies. I. Rabasa, Angel. II. Rand Corporation. U241.F76 2011 355.4'25—dc23 2011029543 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: UN photo by Martine Perret © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph is the second of two volumes that examine how insur- gencies transition from a high level of violence to a more stable situ- ation. It examines a number of case studies to determine the key fac- tors necessary for a successful transition. The monograph should be of interest to the U.S. Department of Defense, other agencies of the U.S. government, as well as government and nongovernmental orga- nizations in other countries that are concerned with insurgency and counterinsurgency. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified- Com batant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/about/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Maps ................................................................ xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments .............................................................xxix Abbreviations .................................................................. xxxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................... 1 The Transition from Counterinsurgency to Stability .......................... 2 The Case Studies ................................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO The Philippines ................................................................... 9 Introduction: Background of the Communist Conflict in the Philippines ....................................................................10 Counterinsurgency Under Marcos ............................................12 The Post-Marcos Period ........................................................15 Strategy .............................................................................17 CPP/NPA ........................................................................17 The Philippine State.............................................................. 22 Self-Defense Militias .......................................................... 27 AFP COIN Progress ............................................................. 28 Transition? .........................................................................32 Conclusion: Lessons for the United States .................................... 38 v vi From Insurgency to Stability, Volume II: Insights from Selected Case Studies CHAPTER THREE Counterinsurgency Transition Case Study: Colombia ...................41 Nature and Scope of the Conflict ...............................................41 International and Transnational Actors ....................................... 44 Strategy (Pre-Transition) .........................................................45 Colombian Government Strategy .............................................45 Insurgent Strategy ..............................................................47 External Powers Supporting Belligerents.................................... 50 Key Strengths and Weaknesses of the Strategies ............................51 How the Parties Define “Victory” .......................................... 54 The Transition Period .............................................................55 Managing the Transition .......................................................57 Institutional Framework: Theory and Practice ..............................58 Stages of Transition .............................................................61 Implementation: What Is the Actual Experience of the Colombian Transition? ..................................................................65 Gaps ................................................................................70 Conclusions ........................................................................71 Assessment of Colombian Transition Plan ...................................71 Prospects for the Future .......................................................72 What Capabilities Does the United States Need to Have or Need to Develop? .......................................................................73 CHAPTER FOUR Counterinsurgency Transition Case Study: El Salvador ..................................................................75 Introduction .......................................................................75 Strategy (Pre-Transition) .........................................................79 The Transition Period ............................................................ 84 Domestic Factors .............................................................. 87 The United States’ Role ........................................................89 The Role of the International Community ................................. 92 Managing the Transition .......................................................