The Eurasia Center Belarus – Raman Pratasevich Arrested June 2021 Casey Chambers, Associate EURASIA NEWS Morgan Berk The Eurasia Center www.EurasiaCenter.org Belarus – Raman Pratasevich Arrested In a shocking incident on Sunday, May 23rd, a Ryanair flight was diverted to land in Minsk. A commercial airliner flying from Athens, Greece to Vilnius, Lithuania was ordered to divert after a false claim of a bomb threat. Belarusian authorities even sent a Mig-29 fighter jet to escort the plane away from the Lithuanian border and further into Belarus. The public justification for the action was a bomb threat from Hamas. However, in a seemingly coordinated action, exiled journalist Raman Protasevich and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega were arrested.1 Raman Protasevich Source: Wikipedia The flight took off from Athens and was scheduled to fly a non-stop route to Vilnius. The roughly two-and-a-half-hour flight plan included an overflight of Belarus. The plane was already entering the descent stage of the flight into Vilnius when the pilot received notice of the fake bomb threat. At the time, the fallaciousness of the message was unknown and the pilots heeded the authorities’ instructions. The aircraft was guided into Minsk by two Mig-29 fighter jets. 1 BBC Staff. “Belarus Plane: What We Know and What We Don't.” BBC News, BBC, 27 May 2021, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57239521. Protasevich is a high-level critic of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. How work as an opposition journalist has embarrassed the regime. Furthermore, his NEXTA news service has been one of the few outlets sharing negative information about the Belarusian government. It has also been a medium for organizing protests after the fraudulent August 9, 2020 election. Protasevich had been away from his home country in exile as a dissident since 20192. Belarus, an Eastern European state remains quite close to Russia even after its independence following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of the country has been in power since independence and was a committed communist in the past.3 Belarus is economically weak and dependent on Russian support, especially after widespread protest in the aftermath of the most recent presidential election. Lukashenko claimed 80% of the vote last year in an election widely panned as fraudulent. Belarus has been referred to as the “last dictatorship in Europe”. The exact details of the incident have become clearer in the days since the grounding of the flight. A joint investigation from the Daily Beast and the Dossier Center were able to find the email sent to Minsk National Airport’s account as well as the state-run company that runs several airports in Lithuania. In the email an alias “Ahmed Yurlanov” professes to be a member of the Hamas terrorist organization and stated there was a bomb on the plane. However, this email was received twenty-four minutes after the flight was directed to change course and Hamas has disavowed involvement.4 Beyond the factual discrepancies in this case the timing of a significant escalation in 2 Vigdor, Neil, and Ivan Nechepurenko. “Who Is Roman Protasevich, the Captive Journalist in Belarus?” The New York Times, The New York Times, 24 May 2021, www.nytimes.com/2021/05/23/world/europe/roman-protasevich.html. 3 The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Alexander Lukashenko.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 24 May 2021, www.britannica.com/biography/Alexander-Lukashenko. 4 Weiss, Michael. “'Bomb Threat' That Justified Belarus Hijacking Came 24 Minutes After.” Yahoo! News, Yahoo!, 26 May 2021, news.yahoo.com/bomb-threat-cited-belarus-hijacking- 203029699.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAA AHJy_OKb1fQtLua5eWEncgV_EnCjjoBP8LXNPcCzeaKN_BOQOqW1AcONwA5LrxEpHitiMktkOFdFz9kep5u7u1 E9cnO0A1GzwluPRBf2ZtCSdDjH5VIiMRp8vfiv77u6pDmZxLHs9XqtPgN56-_NI2vd2gSGAezbBiur3qj2UPRp. violence immediately after a cease-fire with Israel is dubious. Most countries in the world with the notable exception of Russia have placed the blame with Belarus. The true reason for the operation of course was the capture of Protasevich. Silencing an outspoken critic of the regime is a win for the current government in power even if it comes with costs. Even Protasevich was aware of the situation when the diversion was announced by the pilot. According to a BBC report on the matter Protasevich told a nearby passenger, “A death penalty awaits me here.” He was visibly shaken and tried to give several electronic devices to Sapega, his travelling companion.5 In Belarus both Sapega and Protasevich face fifteen-year prison sentences for organizing mass arrest. If Protasevich is found guilty of terrorism related offenses he could face the death penalty. This would be a serious diplomatic incident and likely result in further sanctions and international response. The international reaction to the detaining of the two was one of widespread concern and condemnation. Since the falsified election in 2020 the Lukashenko regime has been lonesome on the international stage. The crackdown on peaceful protest within Belarus that led to more than 7,000 arrests last year had left Belarus isolated diplomatically. This incident will only harden resolve in European capitals that Lukashenko is an illegitimate leader and regime change is necessary. Multiple public statements from diplomatic officials noted the flight was from one EU country to another on a plane also chartered in the EU. While the regime’s actions were an assault on press freedom it has also been noted this was an escalation against the European Union itself that imperiled the safety of EU citizens. 5 BBC Staff. “Belarus Plane: What We Know and What We Don't.” BBC News, BBC, 27 May 2021, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57239521. A joint statement from the Foreign Ministers of the G7 as well as the EU High Representative made the world’s opinion clear. The G7 has been a 7-nation body since the removal of the Russian Federation after its illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory in 2014. The statement makes a clear demand for a thorough investigation to determine whether any international laws were broken over the course of the operation: This action jeopardized the safety of the passengers and crew of the flight. It was also a serious attack on the rules governing civil aviation. All our countries, and our citizens, depend on every state acting responsibly in fulfilling their duties under the Chicago Convention so that civil aircraft can operate safely and securely. We call on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to urgently address this challenge to its rules and standards.6 The Department of State had a similarly severe response. It laid blame squarely on the regime in Minsk in addition to highlighting the risk to all passengers onboard. The United States strongly condemns the forced diversion of a flight between two EU member states and the subsequent removal and arrest of journalist Raman Pratasevich in Minsk. We demand his immediate release. This shocking act perpetrated by the Lukashenka regime endangered the lives of more than 120 passengers, including U.S. citizens. Initial reports suggesting the involvement of the Belarusian security services and the use of 6 EEAS Press Team. “Belarus: Statement by the G7 Foreign Ministers and the EU High Representative.” EEAS, 27 May 2021, eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/99150/belarus-statement-g7-foreign-ministers-and-eu- high-representative_en. Belarusian military aircraft to escort the plane are deeply concerning and require full investigation.7 As of June 22, 2021 Protasevich remains in Belarusian custody. The immediate diplomatic furor has largely died down. The ongoing effects of increased pressure and sanctions on Minsk will continue to play out in the long term. Protasevich’s future is unknown and remains in serious jeopardy. 7 Blinken, Anthony J. “Diversion of Ryanair Flight to Belarus and Arrest of Journalist - United States Department of State.” U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of State, 24 May 2021, www.state.gov/diversion-of-ryanair-flight- to-belarus-and-arrest-of-journalist/. .