CASCADES OF VIOLENCE WAR, CRIME AND PEACEBUILDING ACROSS SOUTH ASIA CASCADES OF VIOLENCE WAR, CRIME AND PEACEBUILDING ACROSS SOUTH ASIA JOHN BRAITHWAITE AND BINA D’COSTA Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at press.anu.edu.au A catalogue record for this book is available from the National Library of Australia ISBN(s): 9781760461898 (print) 9781760461904 (eBook) This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Cover image by Eli Vokounova, ‘Flow by Lucid Light’. This edition © 2018 ANU Press Contents Boxes and tables . vii Figures, maps and plates . ix Abbreviations . xiii Foreign terms . xix Preface . xxi Part I: Cascades on a broad canvas 1 . Introduction: Cascades of war and crime . 3 2 . Transnational cascades . 37 3 . Towards a micro–macro understanding of cascades . 93 4 . Cascades of domination . 135 Part II: South Asian cascades 5 . Recognising cascades in India and Kashmir . 177 6 . Mapping conflicts in Pakistan: State in turmoil . 271 7 . Macro to micro cascades: Bangladesh . .. 321 8 . Crime–war in Sri Lanka . 363 9 . Cascades to peripheries of South Asia . 393 Part III: Refining understanding of cascades 10 . Evaluating the propositions . 451 11 . Cascades of resistance to violence and domination . 487 12 . Conclusion: Cascades and complexity . 539 Appendix: Summary of proposition conclusions for each country case . 581 References . 601 Boxes and tables Table 5.1 Trajectory of self-determination movements. ...........187 Table 7.1 Membership composition of the Hill District Councils. ..351 Table 7.2 Membership composition of Chittagong Hill Tracts Regional Council. ..................................351 Table 7.3 Indigenous group representation on the Chittagong Hill Tracts Regional Council.. .352 Box 9.1 The IMU pounces on the killing of innocents in a night raid .....................................400 Box 9.2 Al-Qaeda seduction of refugees in Peshawar ............406 Table 12.1 Likelihood and confidence in fuzzy categories. ........577 Table A Summary of proposition conclusions for each country case. ......................................581 vii Figures, maps and plates Map 1.1 Map of South Asia. ...............................13 Plate 1.1 Mass grave being exhumed at Choeng Ek, Cambodia (date unknown). ....................................20 Plate 2.1 An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes on 21 March 2003. ..................................44 Plate 2.2 Several naked Iraqis in hoods, Abu Ghraib prison, Iraq, 2006. One has the words ‘I’m a rapeist’ (sic) written on his hip. .........................................46 Plate 2.3 Women’s rally, communist Afghanistan, 1980. ...........50 Plate 2.4 Rwandan Hutus in the Goma refugee camp, eastern Zaire (now DRC), 1994. ..............................53 Plate 2.5 Front page of the Domenica del Corriere, an Italian paper, with a drawing by Achille Beltrame depicting Gavrilo Princip killing Archduke Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo, 1914. ......63 Plate 2.6 Italian and Libyan corpses after the attack against ‘Ridotta Lombardia’, Libya, 1911. .......................65 Plate 2.7 Crowded conditions in Yarmouk, a Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus, 2017. The people here are lining up for food.. 88 Figure 3.1 The effect of coercion on compliance as a net result of a capitulation effect and a defiant resistance effect. .........96 Figure 3.2 The interactive effects of force and importance of freedom. .......................................100 Plate 3.1 Ali Gohar (left) participates in a jirga with Pashtun leaders near the Swat Valley, north-west Pakistan, 2012. ...........103 ix CASCAdeS of VioLenCe Plate 3.2 Hutu refugees fleeing Rwanda. .....................129 Plate 4.1 Luwowo coltan mine near Rubaya, North Kivu, DRC, 2014. This mine is a validated mining site for conflict-free minerals.. .148 Plate 4.2 US military prison at Camp Bucca, Iraq. ..............151 Plate 4.3 Street gang members in prison in El Salvador. ..........159 Plate 5.1 Nehru and Gandhi during a meeting of the All India Congress, Bombay (Mumbai), 6 July 1946. ...............184 Figure 5.1 Chronic conflict in India, 2015. ...................197 Plate 5.2 Women clearing weeds, Kashmir, 1890. Gulami (slavery) in the fields of Jammu and Kashmir, probably near the capital of Srinagar.. .200 Plate 5.3 The Taj Hotel, Mumbai, after the 2008 terrorist attack. ...217 Plate 5.4 Kashmiri villagers, Tral, 38 km south of Srinagar, during the funeral of Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahidin chief of operations, 9 July 2016.. .218 Plate 5.5 Young Kashmiri stone-pelters attack Indian security forces during a protest in Srinagar, 16 July 2016. ...........222 Plate 6.1 Members of the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan protest in Peshawar, Pakistan, against the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, 28 April 1998. ...272 Plate 6.2 Balochistan liberation soldiers. ......................283 Plate 6.3 Crowds protest US drone strikes in Multan, Pakistan, 2013. ....................................299 Plate 6.4 US national security team gathered in the White House situation room to monitor the progress of ‘Operation Neptune Spear’ against Osama bin Laden, 1 May 2011. .............302 Plate 7.1 Peacebuilding Compared filmmaker Sari Braithwaite and Bina D’Costa, while smiling for John’s camera, have actually been detained by the military while attempting to visit a recently burnt-out indigenous village, Chittagong Hill Tracts, 2011.. 322 Plate 7.2 Bangladeshi Government–run camp for members of the Bihari minority, 1972. ..........................336 x figureS, MAPS And PLAteS Plate 7.3 A demonstration conducted by Jumma (indigenous) people in Bandarban, CHT, in 2011.. .349 Plate 7.4 Bina D’Costa doing a television interview with Chai Thowai Tanchangya in front of a CHT village that was burnt out in a 2011 conflict. ...............................354 Plate 8.1 LTTE leaders at Sirumalai camp, India, in 1984, being trained by Indian intelligence officers. ...................365 Plate 8.2 The Sea Tigers of LTTE were innovative in building their destructive little navy. ...........................368 Plate 8.3 The USS Cole is towed away from the port city of Aden, Yemen, into open sea, 29 October 2000, after a terrorist attack killed 17 crew members and injured 39 others. ............381 Plate 9.1 Afghan National Army sergeant patrolling in a poppy field, Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, 2013. .............408 Plate 9.2 A Maoist rebel leader speaks to about 4,000 villagers from the surrounding areas of Piscar, a remote mountain village about 200 km east of the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, 2001. ..................................416 Plate 9.3 President Bidhya Devi Bhandari, 2015, the first female president of Nepal, former leftist student leader, Chair of the All Nepal Women’s Association and Vice-President of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist). ......418 Plate 9.4 Empowerment through post-conflict livelihood. ........420 Plate 9.5 Monks protesting in Myanmar, 2007. ................430 Plate 9.6 Dau Aung San Suu Kyi gives a speech to supporters at Hlaing Thar Yar Township in Yangon, Myanmar, 2011. ....432 Plate 11.1 US president Reagan and Soviet general secretary Gorbachev, Reykjavik, Iceland, nuclear test ban negotiations, 1986. ............................................490 Plate 11.2 A Libyan schoolgirl stands in what remains of her classroom, 2012.. 499 Plate 11.3 Gandhi with Bacha Khan, Peshawar, 1938. ...........510 Figure 11.1 Nonviolent and violent uprisings. .................511 Plate 11.4 Australian Aboriginal prisoners in chains, c. 1890. ......526 xi CASCAdeS of VioLenCe Figure 12.1 Example of a responsive regulatory enforcement pyramid. .........................................552 Plate 12.1 ‘The Beast’ (La Bestia) carries half a million immigrants from Central America to the US border every year. .........563 xii Abbreviations AFSPA Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act 1958 (India) AMP Awareness, Motivation and Pathways ANU The Australian National University ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BJP The Bharatiya Janata Party (India) BNP The Bangladesh Nationalist Party BRA Bougainville Revolutionary Army CEO chief executive officer CHT Chittagong Hill Tracts (Bangladesh) CIA Central Intelligence Agency (United States) CID Criminal Investigation Department (Sri Lanka) CMDP Citizens’ Movement for Democracy and Peace (Nepal) COIN counterinsurgency conceived as comprehensive civilian and military efforts to contain insurgency and address its root causes CPI-M Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPN-M Communist Party of Nepal–Maoist CPN-UML Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) DGFI Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (Bangladesh) DRC Democratic Republic of Congo ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EPDP Eelam People’s Democratic Party (Sri Lanka) EU European Union xiii CASCAdeS of VioLenCe EVAW Law Law on Elimination of Violence against Women (Afghanistan) FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Pakistan) FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation (United States) GDP gross domestic product HDC Hill District Council HSZ high-security zone ICC International Criminal Court ICG International Crisis Group