Flood Risk Assessment in Bangladesh and People`s Adjustment Scenarios: A Case Study in Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain Ph. D. Thesis Department of Geography and Environment University of Dhaka 2014 Submitted by Supervised by Md. Serajul Islam Dr. Amanat Ullah Khan Department of Geography and Professor Environment Department of Geography and University of Dhaka Environment University of Dhaka Dhaka University Institutional Repository ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my gratitude to all those who gave me the possibility to complete this thesis. I want to thank the Department of Geography and Environment, University of Dhaka for giving me permission to commence this thesis in the first instance, to do the necessary research work and to use departmental support services. I am deeply indebted to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Amanat Ullah Khan from the University of Dhaka for his patient guidance, enthusiastic encouragement and useful critiques of this research work and, stimulating suggestions and encouragement that helped me in all the time of research for and writing of this thesis. My honourable teachers and colleagues from the Department of Geography and Environment supported me in my research work. I want to thank them for all their help, support, interest and valuable hints. I am obliged to the Chairman of the same Department for his cooperation and valuable suggestions, and Dean of the Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences for his truthful support and encouragement. I am particularly grateful for the assistance given by the personnel of various Departments and Organizations who helped me providing data and information for research purpose. I have furthermore to thanks the respondents of the study area for their heartfelt support in providing information. Assistance provided by the administrative office of the university was greatly appreciated. I would like to give my special thanks to my wife Mrs. Shahanaz Parveen whose patient love enabled me to complete this work. Md. Serajul Islam II Dhaka University Institutional Repository Abstract Bangladesh is certainly one of the most impressive floodplain and delta areas in the world. The interaction between the rapidly increasing population, the intensity of agricultural production, the extreme variability of precipitation, and the unusual dynamics of the river systems makes flood management in Bangladesh a truly challenging task. We are well aware of the fact that a large number of highly qualified institutions and authors have tackled issues concerning monsoonal floods in Bangladesh, not only from the natural and social science point of view but also from the technical and engineering science side. The riverine country Bangladesh has been experiencing floods more frequently than ever before in the recent years. The present study undertakes a detailed assessment of flood risks of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain (Map 6.3), the study area for this research. An attempt has been undertaken in this research to develop a GIS model using ArcGIS 10 Modelbuilder option. The underlying objective was to contribute to the flood management system in the country. The model involved the analysis of the hydrologic, topographic and the local resident’s coping capacity variables. Combining the weight of the above variables throughout the study area the model was able to demarcate flood risk zones of various intensity. Uniform flood risk was not found into the whole area. Some parts of the area are identified as high risk zones, some are moderate risk zones and others are risk free or low risk zones. Flood intensity and duration of the area is controlled mainly by the hydrological and topographical characteristics of the catchment area. The effect of river morphology and dynamics and precipitation trends of the area were found fluctuating with season. Coping strategies and options of the local residents were found to be poor and inadequate and are mainly based on indigenous knowledge. Almost all of the peoples found were not afraid of flood and they take it as a routine problem that happens almost every year. No unusual measures are taken to survive during the flood period except storing and preserving dry foods and medicine after a flood warning is received. A Hazard Intensity Surface Index has been prepared for the area combining all the variables that contribute to the overall hazard potential of the study area. Thus the study area has been categorized into several belts with different hazard potentials (Map 4.9). In the case of human adjustment, people themselves take measures that save and reduce the loss and damage. The help received from government III Dhaka University Institutional Repository sources were found to be very inadequate and untimely. Also, the most poor are the ones who are deprived due to the relief distribution system at the local level. Notwithstanding the need for greater sophistication, it is likely that, the flood protection, mitigation and risk assessment model have been developed and expected to acknowledge the problem and considered here to successfully deal the flood problems of the study area. Moreover, the suggested models to analyze the risk of flood should be considered rudimentary, and are presented solely to illustrate the concept. IV Dhaka University Institutional Repository ACRONYMS ADAB Association of Development Agencies in Bangladesh ADB Asian Development Bank AFPM Active Flood Plain Management BADC Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation BARC Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council BCAS Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies BIDS Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies BIWTA Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority BKB Bangladesh Krishi Bank BDM Bangladesh Meteorological Department BRDB Bangladesh Rural Development Board BRE Brahmaputra Right Embankment BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board CIDA Canadian International Development Agency DTW Deep Tube-Well DFFW Directorate of Flood Forecasting and Warning DLE Dhaleshari Let Bank DND Dhaka-Narayanganj-Demra Irrigation Project EEC European Economic Community EIP Early Implementation Project EPWAPDA East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority ERR Economic Rate of Return FAO Flood Action Plan FCD Flood Control and Drainage FCDI Flood Control and Drainage Irrigation FFYP Forth Five Year Plan FPCO Flood Plan Coordination Organization GIS Geographic Information System GUP Gram Union Parishad HYV High Yielding Variety IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development V Dhaka University Institutional Repository IDA International Development Association IDP International Development Project IECO Institutional Energy Consultant Organization IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPM Integrated Pest Management IRRI International Rice Research Institute, Philippines. This term is used for high yielding varieties of rice ISPAN Irrigation Support Project for Asia and the Near East JRCB Join River Commission of Bangladesh LIV Local Improved Varieties LLP Low Left Pumps LGED Local Government and Engineering Department MLE Meghna Left Embankment MPO Master Plan Organization MRE Meghna Right Embankment MTFPP Medium Term Flood Production Plan NERP Noth-East Regional Water Management Project NGO Non Government Organization NWP National Water Plan RHDIS Recorded Highest Discharge RHFL Recorded Highest Flood Level SFYP Second Five Year Plan TFYP Third Five Year Plan TYP Two Year Plan VI Dhaka University Institutional Repository Glossary Upazila Small Administrative of the Country (Thana) Boro Rice sawn transplanted and maturing in the dry monsoon season Char Newly emerged land in a river channel Cross dam An embankment built across a river Dal Pulses Fitkiri Alum to clean polluted water; one type of chemical Haor A bowl-shaped depression between the natural levees of a river mostly found in the eastern region of greater Mymensingh and the Greater Sylhet District. Traces Physiographic unit of the country having special character Jotedars Large influential landowners Kharif Wet growing season Khas Under Government ownership Mahajan Traders who stocks Neem (Azadirachta indica) Indigenous medicinal plant Rabi Dry growing season Ring Dam Officially called the Dhaka Integrated Town Projection Embankmen Aman A team used in eastern India and Bangladesh for rice crop sown in monsoon and harvested after monsoon. Ashtomashi Ban Embankments meant to last for eight months of the year Aus Rice Crop planted before the wet monsoon season and maturing immediately before or in the well monsoon. Bannya Bengali name for Flood Rainy Session Bengali name for normal Flood Beel A natural wetland depression which generally retains water throughout the year Srotte Bengali name of Flow of water VII Dhaka University Institutional Repository TABLE OF CONTENT Page No. Certificate of Validation I Acknowledgement II Abstract III-IV Acronyms V-VI Glossary VII Table of Content i-vii List of Figures viii-x List of Tables xi CHAPTER ONE : INTRODUCTION 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Floods Estimation 2 1.2 Flood Risk Assessment 3 1.3 Flood Management Policy and Strategy in Bangladesh 6 1.4 Details of the study area (Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain) 7 1.5 Aim and Objectives of the Study 10 1.6 Methods of Study 10 1.6.1 Developing a Model for Flood Risk assessment 10 1.6.1.0 Value/Weight calculation of data for the model 11 1.6.2 Methods of analysis of flood risk of the study area includes three 12 main steps 1.6.2.1 Stages of Investigation 13 1.7 Physiography of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna Floodplain 17 1.8 Significance of the study 19 1.9 Overview of the Chapters 20 i Dhaka University Institutional Repository CHAPTER TWO : REVIEW OF EXISTING LITERATURE 2.0 Introduction 23 2.1 Individual research on flood and flood risk 23 2.2 Organizational Research 36 2.3 Bangladesh Flood Action Plan (FAP) 38 2.3.1 FAP-Project Assessment Guideline 39 2.3.2 FPCO Guidelines (1991a; 1992e) 40 2.3.3 The document, GOB Republic of France (1989) 40 2.4 Before Independent 41 2.4.1 Krug Missions Report 41 2.4.2 The Principles points of recommendations of Krug Missions Report 41 2.4.3 Creation of EPWAPDA 42 2.4.4 EPWAPDA Master Plan, 1964 42 2.4.5 General Hardin`s Report and Professor J.