THE IMPACT OF THE GIRINKA ONE COW PER POOR FAMILY PROGRAM ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN GATSIBO DISTRICT, RWANDA Mutarutwa Nkusi Christian (A152EA/22365/2011) A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Agribusiness Management and Trade), in the School of Agriculture and Enterprise Development of Kenyatta University. September, 2014 ii DECLARATION This thesis is my original work and has not been presented for a degree in any other University. No part of this work should be reproduced without the prior permission of the author and / or Kenyatta University Signature: ------------------------- Date------------------------- Mutarutwa Nkusi Christian Department of Agribusiness Trade and Management Kenyatta University, Kenya This thesis has been submitted with our approval as University supervisors Sign: -------------------------- Date: -------------------------- Dr. Newton Nyairo Department of Agribusiness Trade and Management Kenyatta University, Kenya Sign: -------------------------- Date: -------------------------- Dr. Patrick Mbataru Department of Agribusiness Trade and Management Kenyatta University, Kenya iii DEDICATION Dedicated to my loving father, and my deep good memories to my irreplaceable late mother. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to acknowledge the staff of the Department of Agriculture Management and Trade, Kenyatta University for their support since I started my studies. I wish to thank my supervisors Dr Newton Nyairo and Dr Patrick Mbataru who offered their support towards shaping this research to its current form. I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to the staff of the Department of Agriculture in Gatsibo district, for their support during the period of data collection and not forgetting the Coupala team who helped as enumerators. Above all, honour and thanks to God the Almighty for his mercy, care and guidance during the entire period of my studies. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents DECLARATION .......................................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION ............................................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLE ........................................................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. ix ABREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................ x ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................. xi CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .................................................................................................. 6 1.3 OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 HYPOTHESES ................................................................................................................................... 7 1.5 JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY .................................................................................................. 8 1.7 THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................... 9 1.7.1 The fundamental theory of impact evaluation ............................................................................. 9 1.7.2 Girinka program as an input in production ................................................................................ 13 1.8 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ......................................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER TWO ........................................................................................................................................ 17 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................................... 17 2.1 The empirical review ........................................................................................................................ 17 2.2 The missing counterfactual and correction for selection bias ..................................................... 19 CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................... 25 3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................. 25 3.1 Empirical Model ............................................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Likert scale ........................................................................................................................................ 32 3.3 Study area and data ........................................................................................................................... 33 vi 3.3.1The study area ............................................................................................................................. 33 3.3.3 Data needs .................................................................................................................................. 34 3.3.4 Data collection and sampling procedure .................................................................................... 35 3.4.5 The data analysis technique ....................................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER FOUR ....................................................................................................................................... 37 4 RESEARCH RESULTS ..................................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Descriptive statistics ................................................................................................................... 37 4.2 Results from the logistic regression ............................................................................................ 39 4.3 Impact of Girinka Program (treatment effect) ............................................................................ 40 4.4 Constrains of Girinka implementation .............................................................................................. 42 CHAPTER FIVE ........................................................................................................................................ 49 5 DISCUSSIONS ................................................................................................................................... 49 5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 49 5.2 The factors influencing the participation in the program .................................................................. 49 5.3 The impact of Girinka program ........................................................................................................ 51 CHAPTER SIX ........................................................................................................................................... 54 6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................ 54 6.1 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 54 6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................. 55 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 56 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................ 59 vii LIST OF TABLE Table 1: Description of variables .................................................................................................. 29 Table 2: Non participation in the Girinka program ...................................................................... 37 Table 3: Participation in Girinka program ...................................................................................