National Aeronautics and Space Administration Astrophysics Committee on NASA Science Paul Hertz Mission Extensions Director, Astrophysics Division NRC Keck Center Science Mission Directorate Washington DC @PHertzNASA February 1-2, 2016 Why Astrophysics? Astrophysics is humankind’s scientific endeavor to understand the universe and our place in it. 1. How did our universe 2. How did galaxies, stars, 3. Are We Alone? begin and evolve? and planets come to be? These national strategic drivers are enduring 1972 1982 1991 2001 2010 2 Astrophysics Driving Documents http://science.nasa.gov/astrophysics/documents 3 Astrophysics Programs Physics of the Cosmos Cosmic Origins Exoplanet Exploration Program Program Program 1. How did our universe 2. How did galaxies, stars, 3. Are We Alone? begin and evolve? and planets come to be? Astrophysics Explorers Program Astrophysics Research Program James Webb Space Telescope Program (managed outside of Astrophysics Division until commissioning) 4 Astrophysics Programs and Missions Physics of the Cosmos Cosmic Origins Exoplanet Exploration Program Program Program Chandra Hubble Spitzer Kepler/K2 XMM-Newton (ESA) Herschel (ESA) WFIRST Fermi SOFIA Planck (ESA) LISA Pathfinder (ESA) Astrophysics Explorers Program Euclid (ESA) NuSTAR Swift Suzaku (JAXA) Athena (ESA) ASTRO-H (JAXA) NICER TESS L3 GW Obs (ESA) 3 SMEX and 2 MO in Phase A James Webb Space Telescope Program: Webb 5 Astrophysics Programs and Missions Physics of the Cosmos Cosmic Origins Exoplanet Exploration Program Program Program Missions in extended phase Chandra Hubble Spitzer Kepler/K2 XMM-Newton (ESA) Herschel (ESA) WFIRST Fermi SOFIA Planck (ESA) LISA Pathfinder (ESA) Astrophysics Explorers Program Euclid (ESA) NuSTAR Swift Suzaku (JAXA) Athena (ESA) ASTRO-H (JAXA) NICER TESS L3 GW Obs (ESA) 3 SMEX and 2 MO in Phase A James Webb Space Telescope Program: Webb 6 Astrophysics Mission Portfolio • NASA Astrophysics seeks to advance NASA’s strategic objectives in astrophysics as well as the science priorities of the Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics. • In addition to space missions, the NASA Astrophysics portfolio includes basic research and technology development, development and stewardship of national capabilities for conducting space astrophysics, and suborbital investigations. • Mission investment choices are informed by the Decadal Surveys, other NRC studies, and other science community input especially advisory committees and peer reviews. 7 SMD Decisional Process for Missions SMD Science Management Council SMD Program Management Council Division Senior Review KDP-A KDP-B KDP-C KDP-D KDP-E KDP-F Phase A Phase B Phase C Phase D Pre-Phase A System assembly, Phase E Phase F Concept & technology Preliminary design Final design & Concept studies integration, test, & Ops & sustainment Closeout development & tech completion fabrication launch MCR SDR/MDR PDR CDR SIR LRR Athena TESS ASTRO-H Herschel L3 GW Obs Webb NICER Kepler/prime WFIRST (Feb ‘16) Euclid Planck SMEX x 3 Suzaku MO x 2 Chandra, Fermi, Hubble, Kepler/K2, LISA Pathfinder, NuSTAR, SOFIA, Spitzer, Swift, XMM-Newton 8 SMD Decisional Process for Missions SMD Science Management Council SMD Program Management Council Division Senior Review KDP-A KDP-B KDP-C KDP-D KDP-E KDP-F Phase A Phase B Phase C Phase D Pre-Phase A System assembly, Phase E Phase F Concept & technology Preliminary design Final design & Concept studies integration, test, & Ops & sustainment Closeout development & tech completion fabrication launch MCR SDR/MDR PDR CDR SIR LRR Athena TESS ASTRO-H Herschel L3 GW Obs Webb NICER Kepler/prime WFIRST (Feb ‘16) Euclid Planck SMEX x 3 Suzaku MO x 2 Chandra, Fermi, Hubble, Kepler/K2, LISA Pathfinder, NuSTAR, SOFIA, Spitzer, Swift, XMM-Newton Missions in extended phase 9 Formulation Implementation Primary Ops XMM-Newton (ESA) CREAM (on ISS) Swift Extended Ops 12/10/1999 12/2016 11/20/2004 Fermi Euclid (ESA) 6/11/2008 2020 Hubble Kepler Spitzer 3/7/2009 ASTRO-H (JAXA) 4/24/1990 JWST 8/25/2003 2016 2018 Chandra 7/23/1999 NICER (on ISS) 8/2016 NuSTAR 6/13/2012 TESS Astrophysics 2017 Mission LISA Pathfinder (ESA) SOFIA Portfolio 2016 12/3/2015 Full Ops 2014 10 Astrophysics Mission Portfolio Astrophysics missions reflect the primary classes of SMD missions • Strategic Missions – Initiated by NASA generally in response to recommendations in the Decadal Survey – NASA-led strategic astrophysics missions are generally in the large or medium mission class – NASA also initiates strategic partnerships with other space agencies, generally resulting in a NASA contribution to a partner-led mission • PI-led competed missions – Initiated by a PI-led team in the form of an Astrophysics Explorers proposal to NASA, either for a full mission or a mission of opportunity – Astrophysics Explorers full mission classes are small (SMEX) and medium (MIDEX) size – Mission of opportunity classes included contributions to a partner-led mission, small complete missions for the cost of a MO, and suborbital-class missions Examples NASA (Full) Mission Contribution Strategic Hubble, Chandra, Webb Herschel, Euclid Competed Swift, NuSTAR, TESS ASTRO-H 11 Astrophysics Mission Portfolio • The different classes of missions come with different levels of complexity, scientific capability, and requirements for location in space. These factors will lead to cost differentials, and levels of risk that the Agency is willing to accept. • Larger, more complex missions will be more expensive, and so the Agency will expect broader scientific return, will accept the need to develop new technologies and new capabilities, and will be less risk tolerant leading to additional testing and redundancy requirements. – These correspond to NASA Class A and Class B missions • Smaller, less complex missions will be expected to have more focused scientific objectives and to leverage existing technologies and capabilities; the Agency is more risk tolerant leading to acceptance of selected single-string systems and tailoring of mission assurance requirements. – These correspond to NASA Class C and Class D missions 12 Astrophysics Mission Portfolio • Given the substantial investment the US government makes in these missions, it is prudent and reasonable to maximize the science return on these investments. • Over the course of a quarter century (starting circa 1991), NASA Astrophysics has established the Senior Review process which calls upon the science community to help assess the scientific productivity and value of missions operating past their original design lifetimes, and provide to NASA, as one of the findings, a rank-ordered list of those missions. • These findings have significant input into the future planning of the Astrophysics portfolio, in terms of directing the evolution of the portfolio and the annual budget allocation. 13 Extended Missions • Transformative science occurs during extended missions (examples) Hubble and Chandra investigations of the properties of dark Fermi Pass 8 overhaul of the event-level analysis of LAT data matter through statistical analysis of 72 cluster collisions. provides greater resolution and sensitivity, illustrated by the (Harvey, D. et al. 2015, Science, 347, 1462) 80-month 10 GeV sky map (adaptively smoothed to bring out significant details on all scales). (Ackermann, M. et al. ApJS 222, 5, 2016) 14 Extended Missions • Transformative science occurs during extended missions (examples) All transiting exoplanets with K magnitude brighter Spitzer studied the environment around the Milky Way’s central than 11; Kepler/K2 extended mission has added a black hole by continuously monitoring it for 24 hours; significant number of potentially rocky planets (blue observations revealed flaring activity with correlation time scales symbols) to the set of known transiting planets (pink not accessible to ground-based telescopes at this wavelength. symbols); these are potential JWST targets for (Hora, J. et al. 2014, ApJ 793, 120) atmospheric composition. (S. Howell, K2 internal report) 15 Extended Missions • Scientific productivity during extended missions equals or exceeds productivity during the prime mission (all data from Senior Review 2014) 16 Extended Missions • Scientific productivity during extended missions equals or exceeds productivity during the prime mission (all data from Senior Review 2014) 17 18 19 Astrophysics Missions LRD Prime Phase Provenance Next SR Hubble 1990 5 yrs E-ext Strategic – large (1972 DS) 2016 Chandra 1999 5 yrs E-ext Strategic – large (1982 DS) 2016 XMM-Newton (ESA) 1999 5 yrs E-ext Strategic - partnership 2016 Spitzer 2003 5 yrs E-ext Strategic – large (1991 DS) 2016 Swift 2004 2 yrs E-ext PI-led competed - MIDEX 2016 Suzaku (JAXA) 2005 2 yrs F (closeout) PI-led competed – MO Fermi 2008 5 yrs E-ext Strategic – medium (2000 DS) 2016 Kepler/K2 2009 4 yrs F/E-ext PI-led competed - Discovery 2016 Herschel (ESA) 2009 4 yrs F (closeout) Strategic - partnership Planck (ESA) 2009 4 yrs F (closeout) Strategic - partnership NuSTAR 2012 2 yrs E-ext PI-led competed - SMEX 2016 SOFIA 2014 5 yrs E-prime Strategic – medium (1991 DS) 2018 LISA Pathfinder (ESA) 2015 9 mos E-prime PI-led competed – New Millennium Ad Hoc ASTRO-H (JAXA) 2016 3 yrs C/D PI-led competed - MO NET 2018 NICER 2016 18 mos C/D PI-led competed - MO NET 2018 TESS 2017 2 yrs C/D PI-led competed - MIDEX NET 2018 Webb 2018 5 yrs C/D Strategic – large (2000 DS) NET 2022 SMEX/MO ~2020 A/B PI-led competed – SMEX and MO Euclid (ESA) 2020 C/D Strategic - partnership Athena (ESA) 2028 Pre-A Strategic - partnership WFIRST