AL-SHABAAB’S INDIRECT APPROACH AND THE INTENSITY OF TERROR ATTACKS IN KENYA (2011-2015) ALDRIN OLAYO FELIX A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI. NOVEMBER 2016 i DECLARATION i DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my mother Helena Maende Olayo; you are my source of strength. My late grandmother Lucia Awimbo and my recently departed “mother” Clara Olal Olayo. The duo ensured that I didn’t make a false start at life by ensuring that I transitioned successfully into this planet. I will always fight to emulate your pioneering standards and indefatigable attitude. My lastborn daughter Elena Olayo Felix, in you I see so many possibilities. I trust you to keep the fire lit by the Awimbo’s and other pioneers burning. This work is for you! ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This project would not have been realized without the tutelage of my lecturers at the Department of Political Science, University of Nairobi, the non-teaching staff, family, my colleagues both in the university and from the National Police Service and a host of other friends and well-wishers. My lecturers, I sincerely appreciate your efforts at nurturing my academic dream and shaping my train of thought. Dr. Musambayi Katumanga, to you I shall forever remain indebted. Your patience made my dream a reality. Many are the occasions you jolted me from “seating on my head” and steered my in the right direction. I lost count of the number of corrections you insisted I make but ultimately I developed resilience and the virtue of giving my all. Strategy you often said is simple, but not easy. I bear testimony to this! Much appreciation to my children; Ajuma Thomas Jefferson, Garang’ Antony Felton, Tibaijuka Ana Kajumulo and Elena Olayo Felix. My brother Bernard Oduor Olayo, you baby sat me, dragged me to Anyiko Primary School and ensured that I graduated from Maseno University. I can never thank you sufficiently but rest assured I shall never be provincial in thought. The larger Helena Olayo family, thanks for giving me the inspiration to always complete my tasks. My classmates notably Philip Tarus, Gichovi Dennis, Winnie Rutto, Hon. Lee Kinyanjui, Fr. Charly, Fred Bukachi, Michael Thon Mangok, Oburu,Omurwa and Guhad; you made the journey tolerable. Fellow officers like Emitundo; Kiongo your support was invaluable. The IDS library staff especially Mrs. Mercy Waithaka, you granted me the most conducive study environment. The library was my “home away from home” and place of nourishment. Despite the contributions and critique by the above mentioned, this study remains Felix Olayo’s personal work and its limitations are not attributed to any party. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ............................................................................................................ i DEDICATION ............................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. iv ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................... vii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ viii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 1 1.1 Background of the Study ........................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem .......................................................................................... 2 1.3 Objectives .................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 Justification of The Study ......................................................................................... 4 1.4.1 Policy Justification ............................................................................................. 4 1.4.2 Academic Justification ....................................................................................... 5 1.5 Scope and Limitations of The Study ......................................................................... 7 1.6 Definition of Concepts .............................................................................................. 7 1.7 Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 8 1.7.1 Kenya’s Vulnerabilities to Terror Attacks .......................................................... 8 1.7.2 Strategic and Policy Options of Neutralizing Terror- Insurgencies ................. 12 1.8 Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................... 14 1.9 Research Hypothesis ............................................................................................... 16 1.10 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 17 1.10.1 Research Design ............................................................................................. 17 1.10.2 Study Area and Population ............................................................................. 17 1.10.3 Sample and Sampling Techniques .................................................................. 18 1.10.4 Data Collection Techniques............................................................................ 18 1.10.5 Data Analysis .................................................................................................. 18 1.11 Chapter Outline ..................................................................................................... 19 iv CHAPTER TWO ......................................................................................................... 20 TRACING THE ROOTS OF KENYA’S VULNERABILITY TO TERROR ATTACKS .................................................................................................................... 20 2.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 20 2.1 Institutional Weakening and The Norfolk Attack of 1980 ...................................... 21 2.2 The Nairobi U.S. Embassy Attack of 1998 ............................................................. 24 2.3 From Kikambala Bombings to KDF Incursion into Somalia .................................. 27 CHAPTER THREE ..................................................................................................... 32 AL-SHABAAB’S INDIRECT APPROACH AND THE THREE KENYAN ATTACKS .................................................................................................................... 32 3.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 32 3.1 Al- Shabaab Broad Strategy- A Conceptual Search................................................ 34 3.2 A Tale of Three Attacks: Al- Shabaab’s Operations in Kenya (2013- 2015) ......... 37 3.2.1 Creating Decisive Conditions: The Westgate Mall as a Battle Field ............... 37 3.2.2 Al-Shabaab’s Offensive Against LAPSSET as Mirrored in Mpeketoni / Lamu Attacks of June 2014 ................................................................................................. 42 3.2.2.1 Response by Security Agencies ................................................................. 43 3.2.2.2 Al –Shabaab’s Order of Battle and Strategic Calculations behind Mpeketoni Attacks ................................................................................................. 45 3.2.3 Al-Shabaab’s Mandera Massacres on KDF’s Lines of Supply and Retreat ..... 48 3.3 AL- Shabaab’s Geographical Project ..................................................................... 51 CHAPTER FOUR ........................................................................................................ 55 INTERNAL SECURITY PARALYSIS IN THE FACE OF AL-SHABAAB ONSLAUGHT .............................................................................................................. 55 4.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 55 4.1 Institutional and Policy Shortcomings .................................................................... 57 4.2 Distance Decay Phenomenon Compounding Kenya’s Anti-Terrorism Efforts ...... 64 4.2.1 Political and Security Distance Decay- Kenya’s Contested Spaces ................. 64 v 4.2.2 Economic Distance Decay and the Termite Economy of Terror in Kenya ...... 67 4.2.3 Social Distance Decay and the Somali Question .............................................. 68 CHAPTER FIVE ......................................................................................................... 70 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................... 70 5.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 70 5.1.a Explaining Al-Shabaab’s Successes ..................................................................... 70 5.1.b Impotence of Kenya Security Forces ................................................................... 72 5.2. Recapitulation