V 12, No 33 Thursday, April 20, 2006 War Republicans stay the course Lugar, Daniels Pence not fleeing down from 36 percent in March and significantly lower than 43 percent in January. In the latest Gallup poll this week, President Bush’s War in Iraq Bush’s approval was at 36 percent, and the generic congres- By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis sional numbers stood at 52 percent Democratic and 42 per- Indiana’s top tier of the Republican establishment is cent Republican. refusing to cower in the face of a bloody and apparently Continued on page 3 unending war in Iraq and the deeply sagging poll numbers that come with it. Not Sen. Dick Lugar. Not Gov. Mitch Daniels. Not U.S. Reps. Mike Pence, Mike Sodrel and Chris Chocola, the latter two who might pay the price of staying the course with their jobs this fall. President Bush's job-approval rating slipped for the third consecutive month and remains near the lowest mark of his presidency, according to a new Harris Interactive poll. Thirty-five percent of 1,008 U.S. adults surveyed in the telephone poll think Bush is doing an “excellent or pretty good” job as president, Gov. Mitch Daniels with President (left) briefed President Bush, Secretaries Rumsfeld and Rice and Vice President Cheney at the White House Wednesday. Above, on Easter Sunday, Daniels swears in Indiana National Guardsmen in Baghdad. Confessions of a 38 percenter By J. CAMERON CARTER Despite being a white male, I am a distinct minority these days: I am one of the roughly 38 percent of Americans who think President Bush is doing a reasonably good job of running the coun- try and discharging his constitutional responsibilities. In the parlance of “It’s the only environment where pollsters, I "approve" of the job he is doing, although that verb is hope- knowledge and experience is held lessly simplistic and disallows criti- against you.” cism, constructive or otherwise. Further enshrining my minority – Senate President Robert D. Garton, status, I am one of the roughly 38 percent of Hoosiers who approve Indianapolis Star of the job Gov. Mitch Daniels is doing in tending to the affairs of Indiana (and here I am perfectly comfortable with the pollsters' pen- HOWEY Political Report Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 20, 2006 chant for over-simplification and gen- eralization). Do the Venn diagram Garton’s invincibility fades p. 4 on that. Why in the world would I HPR Interview: Rep. Mike Pence p. 5 confess to disagreeing with nearly Curry: Bayh raises $10million p. 8 two in three Americans and Hoosiers? Are such heretical politi- Columnists: Claybourn, Moor p. 9 cal views -- to paraphrase Rep. Pat Bauer -- "conceived in sin" and am I Schoeff: Latino power rises in Indiana p. 12 a political apostate? Today, for now, I am. Please allow me to confess a Horse Race: Daniels to stump for Budak; RTL little bit of my political soul. First, it is remarkable that endorses Paul, McClain, Crouch, Thompson p. 13 both Bush and Daniels have almost identical job approval ratings given The Howey Political Report is The Howey Political Report the set of factors for each. They are PO Box 40265 published by NewsLink Inc. It was Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. different. founded in 1994. In Bush's case, he is pre- www.howeypolitics.com siding over a generally healthy, Brian A. Howey, Publisher [email protected] expansionist economy, but his Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Writer Indianapolis Office: 317-506-0883. approval ratings are inextricably Mark Curry, Washington Writer Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. linked to Iraq, the war on terror and Jack E. Howey, Editor Washington, DC Office: 202-256-5822. Middle East foreign policy (or "petro- Business Office: 317-254-0535. politics" as my friends on the left Subscriptions: often intone). In Daniels' case, the $350 annually HPR via e-mail; ©2006, The Howey Political Report. All rights reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing Hoosier economy lags national eco- $550 annually HPR & HPR Daily Wire. Call 317-254-0535. or reproducing in any form, in whole or part, is a nomic metrics despite focus and violation of federal law and is strictly prohibited progress on the job creation and without consent of the publisher. economic development front. Bush's popularity is pegged to foreign and change is unsettling, associated with rich) can't possibly be as down-to-earth affairs, Daniels' interlocked with risk and the unknown. Both Bush and as his campaign commercials make him domestic Hoosier prosperity. Daniels demonstrate supreme confi- out to be. In Bush's case, he is in the dence in themselves and their objectives. Further confession: I am a 38- second term of his presidency; he's They evoke partisan rage not only by the percenter because I appreciate real lead- been around, he's old hat, his lead- policies they pursue, but by the manner ership, not the faux variety that we too ership style (love it or hate it) is in which they pursue them. often get from Hoosier politicians. Give it familiar. In Daniel's case, My Man Bush's West Texas demeanor -- to me and even give it to me with a little Mitch is just getting started; he's only chin out, eyes up, arms akimbo -- drives attitude. Gimme a pol who will go out on 15 months into his administration my Democrat friends absolutely nuts. He a limb on the important stuff (Iraq, and -- let me go out on a limb here could propose national healthcare, new Hoosier jobs) over some stuffed shirt by predicting the outcome of the environmental protections, an increase in spouting focus-grouped, market-tested, 2008 election -- it's only his first the federal minimum wage, higher middle-of-the-road drivel that he's trying term. His leadership style is only salaries for teachers, and blow up both to pass off as thoughtful, weighty political now beginning to become familiar to NAFTA and CAFTA, but they'd be upset discourse. Hoosiers. by the way he strode to the podium to Bush is leading the country in And maybe therein lies the make the announcement. Mitch Daniels' war-time against a determined, amor- problem for both men and a potential inability to suffer fools is equally grating phous enemy unprecedented in the explanation for the identical (low) poll to them; the governor's intellect and per- nuclear age. Despite missteps in Iraq numbers: leadership and style. ceived "I know best" mentality turns them (e.g., inadequate troop levels), his Both Bush and Daniels are off and, in many instances, makes them administration's forward-leaning and pre- leaders that remain unafraid to pur- spiteful. Ironically, they despise his emptive strategy is big, bold and not only sue with conviction their policy goals folksy demeanor because it is a contrast important, but essential. Losing this one and allow the body politic to catch-up to his intellectual prowess: a guy that is not an option; losing the 2006 election with them. They are change agents smart (and, it remains unspoken, that is worth the risk to pursue this over-arch- HOWEY Political Report Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 20, 2006 ing objective. (e.g., Major Moves). To those who voted for him but are now With Daniels, we had 16-plus years of feeble, go- disenchanted, did you think he was kidding? along-to-get-along politics while the world's technological and Both Bush and Daniels have a lot of wood to chop on economic underpinnings radically shifted and imperiled our behalf. Both are doing important, indeed, critical, work on Hoosier jobs, income, families and, ultimately, quality of life. our behalf. Both don't need the accolades -- or the crap -- He campaigned in 2004 on a well-publicized platform of that goes with the job. Both are true leaders willing to expend reform -- daylight-saving time, balancing the state budget, political capital to get the job done and both have personal reorganizing state government to become more efficient -- to idiosyncrasies that drive their opponents nuts. increase Hoosiers' chances for success in their individual pur- They lead, but will we follow? The polls say "no," for suits. He promised a "freight train of change" and he's deliv- now. It may be a matter of style and the fact that while we ering across the board with institutional reforms, new person- say we want real leadership, we truly may crave only the nel, new policies, and new means of financing public priorities false comfort of the familiar. "These are uncomfortable for Americans who are frustrated War Republicans, from page 1 with the whole war. The polling shows the country is on the Hoosier leaders delved deeply into war this past wrong track, the President's polling numbers are down. week, with Gov. Daniels spending Easter morning in Bagh- Cooler heads ought to prevail." dad, where he re-enlisted 13 Indiana National Guardsmen to Pence said in an HPR Interview (See Page 5) “I new six-year stints. believe that when we stand up an elected parliamentary gov- Hours later on ABC’s This Week in an unprecedented ernment in Iraq, that that day will be a very bad day for appearance with Sen. Evan Bayh, Senate Foreign Relations Zarqawi and the insurgents. It will be seen as a day that is a Chairman Richard Lugar defended President Bush and his tipping point for freedom. But it is very difficult to get to that handling of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. day. I am very confident this commander-in-chief and our sol- “For the time being, he has indicated Secretary diers will achieve that.” Rumsfeld is going to be our secretary and that's the call," Pence added, “There’s no question we have made Lugar said.