Connecticut Efficient Lighting Saturation and Market Assessment FINAL 10/2/2012 Submitted to: The Connecticut Energy Efficiency Fund Connecticut Light and Power The United Illuminating Company Submitted by: NMR Group, Inc. 50-2 Howard Street, Somerville, MA 02144 Phone: (617) 284-6230 Fax: (617) 284-6239 www.nmrgroupinc.com Efficient Lighting Saturation and Market Assessment Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... I RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... I KEY FINDINGS .............................................................................................................................. II Awareness of Lighting Options and Changes in Market......................................................... II Current and Likely Consumer Reactions to EISA .................................................................. II Light Bulb Use, Saturation, Storage, and Purchase............................................................... III Assisting Consumers to make Efficient Lighting Choices .................................................... VI CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................. VII 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ......................................................................................................2 1.2 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................5 1.2.1 Consumer Survey ........................................................................................................ 5 1.2.2 Onsite Saturation Study ............................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 Weighting Schemes ..................................................................................................... 6 1.2.4 Analyses ...................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.5 Relationship of Current Approaches to Focus Group Results..................................... 7 2 KEY FINDINGS .................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 AWARENESS OF LIGHTING OPTIONS AND CHANGES IN MARKET ........................................8 2.1.1 Awareness and Familiarity with Energy-efficient Light Bulbs ................................... 8 2.1.2 Awareness of Changes in Efficiency Standards .......................................................... 9 2.2 CURRENT AND LIKELY CONSUMER REACTIONS TO EISA ................................................11 2.2.1 Awareness of Changes in Light Bulb Availability .................................................... 12 2.2.2 Consumer Changes in Lighting Habits due to EISA ................................................. 13 2.2.3 Stockpiling of Incandescent Bulbs due to EISA ....................................................... 16 2.3 LIGHT BULB USE, SATURATION, STORAGE, AND PURCHASE ............................................18 2.3.1 stae Saturation and Types of Bulbs in Use ................................................................ 22 2.3.2 In-depth Questions on A-line LEDs .......................................................................... 30 2.3.3 Changes in Bulb Use due to EISA ............................................................................ 31 2.3.4 Location of Bulb Use................................................................................................. 31 2.3.5 Lighting Decisions by Room Type............................................................................ 33 NMR Efficient Lighting Saturation and Market Assessment 2.3.6 Satisfaction with CFLs and LEDs ............................................................................. 38 2.3.7 Stored Bulbs .............................................................................................................. 41 2.3.8 Commitment to Purchasing Energy Efficiency Lighting .......................................... 43 2.4 ASSISTING CONSUMERS TO MAKE EFFICIENT LIGHTING CHOICES ....................................44 2.4.1 Advisability of Continuing Incentives and for Which Amounts ............................... 45 2.4.2 Consumer Lighting Decisions ................................................................................... 48 2.4.3 Familiarity with Key Lighting Terms........................................................................ 50 3 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................ 53 APPENDIX A METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS ............................................................................ A1 A.1 SAMPLE DESIGN .............................................................................................................. A1 A.2 WEIGHTING SCHEME ....................................................................................................... A2 A.3 WILLINGNESS TO PAY ANALYSIS .................................................................................... A3 APPENDIX B DETAILED FINDINGS ........................................................................................... B1 B.1 CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS ......................................................................................... B1 B.2 PRICE ELASTICITY CALCULATIONS ............................................................................... B13 B.3 ONSITE STUDY RESULTS ............................................................................................... B14 B.3.1 Installed Bulbs ......................................................................................................... B14 B.3.2 Stored Bulbs ............................................................................................................ B18 B.3.3 Onsite Customer Survey Results ............................................................................. B20 B.3.4 Customer Demographics ......................................................................................... B24 APPENDIX C ONSITE DATA COLLECTION QUALITY CONTROL ............................................ C1 APPENDIX D RESEARCH PROTOCOLS .................................................................................... D1 Tables TABLE 1-1: SUMMARY OF OBJECTIVES, RESEARCH QUESTIONS, AND METHODS ....................... 3 TABLE 2-1: COMPARISON OF SATURATION RATES 2009 AND 2012 ............................................ 24 TABLE 2-2: CFL FAILURE RATES BY AGE OF BULB* ................................................................. 25 TABLE 2-3: REASONS TO USE SCREW-IN LEDS .......................................................................... 31 TABLE 2-4: SOCKET SATURATION - ROOM TYPES BY PERCENT OF SOCKETS ........................... 32 TABLE 2-5: WHY NO CFLS INSTALLED BY ROOM ..................................................................... 37 TABLE 2-6: TOP FIVE “LIKES” AND “DISLIKES” FOR CFLS AND LEDS .................................... 39 NMR Efficient Lighting Saturation and Market Assessment TABLE 2-7: TOP FIVE “LIKES” AND “DISLIKES” FOR CFLS BY CFL SATISFACTION ............... 40 TABLE 2-8: WHEN LAST PURCHASED STANDARD CFLS, SPECIALTY CFLS, OR LEDS ........... 43 TABLE 2-10: INFORMATION LOOKED FOR ON BULB PACKAGING .............................................. 49 TABLE 2-11: LIKELIHOOD THAT RESPONDENT WOULD PURCHASE A BULB AT DIFFERENT PRICE POINTS, LIFETIMES, AND SAVINGS BILL ........................................... 50 TABLE 2-12: UNDERSTANDING OF THE TERM “LUMENS” .......................................................... 51 TABLE 2-13: UNDERSTANDING OF THE TERMS “WARM WHITE” AND “COOL WHITE” ........... 52 TABLE A-1: CONSUMER SURVEY SAMPLE DESIGN AND SAMPLING ERROR ............................. A1 TABLE A-2: ONSITE VISITS SAMPLE DESIGN AND SAMPLING ERROR ...................................... A1 TABLE A-3: CONSUMER SURVEY WEIGHTING SCHEME ............................................................ A2 TABLE A-4: ONSITE VISITS WEIGHTING SCHEME ..................................................................... A2 TABLE B-5: FAMILIARITY WITH SPECIALTY CFLS ................................................................... A1 TABLE B-6: FAMILIARITY WITH ENERGY-SAVING BULB TYPES 2011 ....................................... B1 TABLE B-7: INFORMATION HEARD ABOUT CHANGES IN LIGHTING STANDARDS ..................... B2 TABLE B-8: CHANGES RESPONDENTS NOTICED IN TYPES OF BULBS AVAILABLE .................... B2 TABLE B-9: BULB CHOICE UNDER EISA ..................................................................................... B3 TABLE B-10: REASONS FOR BULB CHOICE UNDER EISA ........................................................... B4 TABLE B-11: LIKELIHOOD OF BUYING AND SAVING EXTRA 100 WATT INCANDESCENT BULBS FOR USE AFTER 2012 ............................................................................................ B5 TABLE B-12: BULB TYPES PURCHASED IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS ..................................... B5 TABLE B-13: SATISFACTION WITH STANDARD CFLS AND LEDS............................................... B6 TABLE B-14: REASONS RESPONDENTS LIKE CFL BULBS .......................................................... B6 TABLE