Final Report Manteca Family Entertainment Zone (“FEZ”) Submitted to: City of Manteca Submitted by: Market & Feasibility Advisors October 3, 2011 MFA Project Number: 518 One South Dearborn, Sui t e 2 1 0 0 Chicago IL 60603 312.212.4451 www.marketfeasibilityllc.com Chicago Austin Los Angeles Table of Contents Table of Contents _____________________________________________________________________ 2 Introduction & Executive Summary _______________________________________________________ 3 Regional Market Characteristics _________________________________________________________ 6 Regional Attraction Characteristics ______________________________________________________ 20 Comparable Family Destinations ________________________________________________________ 33 Business Model _____________________________________________________________________ 49 Appendix __________________________________________________________________________ 54 General Limiting Conditions ___________________________________________________________ 55 Exhibit A __________________________________________________________________________ 56 Exhibit B __________________________________________________________________________ 57 Exhibit C __________________________________________________________________________ 58 Exhibit D __________________________________________________________________________ 59 Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 2 Manteca Family Entertainment Zone I ntroduction & Executive Summary Introduction Market Feasibility Advisors (“MFA”) was commissioned by the City of Manteca to explore development opportunities for a city-owned, 140-acre parcel of land off Airport Way at Daniels Street that is known as the Manteca Family Entertainment Zone (“FEZ”). The City controls most of the real estate. To accommodate the community and capture some regional traffic, the city has commissioned MFA and a team of designers to make recommendations for a family entertainment zone next to the current Big League Dreams facility. As a pass-through community off Highway 120 to Yosemite, Manteca envisions becoming more of a destination community. In the past, Manteca was known in Northern California for its water slides (closed in 2004), which attracted approximately 175,000 visitors annually. To analyze the potential types of attractions that would work best for the attraction, MFA reviewed local and regional demographics, regional attractions, and comparable family destinations. The following is summary of some of the key findings in our study by section. Regional Market Characteristics Nicknamed “The Family City,” Manteca is a city in the San Joaquin Valley of Central California. Historically an agricultural community located 76 miles east of San Francisco, rising housing prices in the Bay Area housing and the construction of the 120 bypass portion of State Route 120, has driven residential growth in Manteca. The city itself has a current population of over 67,000 residents, and approximately 1.3 million people within a 30-mile radius of the site. Over the next 30 years, the San Joaquin Council of Governments projects that population of San Joaquin County that is age 19 or under will increase by 53.2 percent. The Hispanic/Latino segment of the county population currently represents 39 percent of the population, but by 2040, this segment is projected to comprise over 50 percent, representing an increase 106 percent. San Joaquin County will remain younger than most other California counties as the state’s population ages and fertility rates continue to decline. The success of any proposed future attraction must take into account that Manteca and the surrounding area within a reasonable driving distance of 30 miles currently has and is projected to continue to consist of younger residents and a large Hispanic segment. This means that activities such as youth sports (i.e., soccer, baseball, basketball) and other forms of family entertainment will be in demand. Regional Attractions Manteca has been and currently is a pass-through community for travelers from Northern California to Yosemite and other parks and forests in the Sierras. According to the National Park Service, approximately 20 percent of all visitors enter through the Big Oak Flat entrance off SR 120 from Manteca. Yosemite National Park is currently the nation’s third most attended park in the U.S. behind Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennessee and Grand Canyon National Park in Arizona. Last year, Yosemite attracted 3.9 million visitors. Approximately 62 percent of these visitors are from California, 57 percent are first time visitors, and 19 percent are under the age of 15. MFA estimates that nearly 800,000 visitors traveling to Yosemite pass through Manteca each year. In analyzing the potential of Manteca to capture Yosemite traffic, three points stand out. Firstly, the Big Oak Flat entrance to Yosemite is an approximate 2-hour drive from Manteca. Therefore, Manteca is not a true “gateway” community like Groveland at the Big Oak Flat Entrance. Secondly, many communities in the San Joaquin Valley region are already claiming to be “the gateway to Yosemite.” In this respect, Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 3 Manteca Family Entertainment Zone Manteca has strong competition. Thirdly, Yosemite visitors are primarily adults traveling in groups of two persons (35 percent of all groups). Only 19 percent are less than 15 years of age, compared to 25 percent of residents within a 30-mile radius of Manteca. Therefore, the demographics of Yosemite visitors differ from those of the Manteca regional market. At this time, there are few entertainment attractions in the Stockton-Modesto MSA outside of the larger cities of Stockton and Modesto (Stanislaus County) that fall within the 30-mile radius. Manteca currently has two successful attractions – Big League Dreams Sports Park and the destination retailer, Bass Pro Shops. The Big League Dreams sports complex, adjacent to our site, has consistently exceeded attendance projections. Over the past three years, the park has achieved annual attendance of roughly 430,000 though it was initially projected to be 360,000 in 2010. The six-field sports complex primarily serves kids ages 8 to 14 and under for baseball tournament play. Since our site is adjacent to the BLD, the FEZ components would not only be beneficial to locals but to tournament players and their families between BLD games. Comparable Family Destinations In the final part of our analysis, MFA looked at family destination communities throughout the U.S., including, Bend, Oregon; Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg, Tennessee; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; San Antonio, Texas; Galveston, Texas; New Braunfels, Texas; Kemah, Texas; the Poconos in Pennsylvania; Niagara Falls, Ontario; Williamsburg, Virginia; the Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin; Sandusky, Ohio; Traverse City, Michigan; and Branson, Missouri. Last year, tourism at these destinations ranged from an estimated annual 2.0 million in Bend to 26.0 million in the San Antonio. The development of these destinations typically started with a natural attraction(s) such as water (Wisconsin Dells) or a gateway entrance to a major national park (Pigeon Forge) and gradually added visitor serving infrastructure and entertainment attractions. In time, the towns themselves became bigger attractions than the natural attractions that started the visitor flow. Business Model & Conclusions For the afore-mentioned reasons, Manteca cannot rely on visitor traffic through Yosemite. The major asset that Manteca has is the established sports tourism flow at BLD, which currently has weekends booked two years in advance. The city-owned Woodward Park also has 6 to 10 large annual tournaments, but its soccer fields are largely undeveloped grass fields. The fact that the site is immediately adjacent to BLD and future conference center/hotel is another advantage and offers synergies with the site components. In summary, MFA believes that creating a mix of sports tournament facilities and family entertainment- oriented attractions, both gated and free to the public, represents the highest and best use of this land parcel. The youth sports travel segment is considered somewhat recession-proof, as families eager to provide their children with tournament-level competition are using the trips as vacations. According to the National Association of Sports Commissions, last year American families spent an estimated $7 billion traveling with their children to youth sports tournaments. The youth sports travel segment is a little less than 10 percent of the national leisure travel industry, and it is growing by 3 to 5 percent annually, faster than most other segments. The visitor flow to these sports facilities will bring many visiting youths onto the property every weekend of the year while the local market will use the facilities through most weeks of the year. The combination of local market familiarity with and access to the complex with the weekend tournament visitation will fuel the other family friendly facilities proposed for the site. In time, we expect the site will become well known for the family entertainment and will prosper and grow from that identity as has happened in many other family destinations that we profiled and analyzed across the U.S. Market & Feasibility Advisors LLC Page 4 Manteca Family Entertainment Zone As outlined in our development program, MFA and the study team recommend the mix of attractions that would tag on existing synergies with BLD and the proposed family