DARPA and Data: A Portfolio Overview William C. Regli Special Assistant to the Director Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Brian Pierce Director Information Innovation Office Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Fall 2017 Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited) 1 DARPA Dreams of Data • Investments over the past decade span multiple DARPA Offices and PMs • Information Innovation (I2O): Software Systems, AI, Data Analytics • Defense Sciences (DSO): Domain-driven problems (chemistry, social science, materials science, engineering design) • Microsystems Technology (MTO): New hardware to support these processes (neuromorphic processor, graph processor, learning systems) • Products include DARPA Program testbeds, data and software • The DARPA Open Catalog • Testbeds include those in big data, cyber-defense, engineering design, synthetic bio, machine reading, among others • Multiple layers and qualities of data are important • Important for reproducibility; important as fuel for future DARPA programs • Beyond public data to include “raw” data, process/workflow data • Data does not need to be organized to be useful or valuable • Software tools are getting better eXponentially, ”raw” data can be processed • Changing the economics (Forensic Data Curation) • Its about optimizing allocation of attention in human-machine teams Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited) 2 Working toward Wisdom Wisdom: sound judgment - governance Abstraction Wisdom (also Understanding: explanation – why “value”) Understanding Knowledge: correlation and composition – how Knowledge Information: facts - what, who, where, when data: representing signals or stimuli Information data Sapience (or processing/cognitive ‘load’) EXample of the Data-Wisdom process for model evolution and application: data Information Knowledge Understanding Wisdom IRAQ COUNTER-INSURGENCY DYNAMICS IRAQ COUNTER-INSURGENCY DYNAMICS COALITION Coalition Instit’l COIN Recent COIN Fear of Under- Related Mistake standing & Experience Coalition GOVERNMENTGovt Capability Qual/Avail Perceived Support Govt COIN of COIN COALITION Coalition Instit’l COIN Recent COIN Conflict for Conflict Appropriate COINTrai ni n g COIN Fear of Under- Related Appr Indigenous Forces Mistake Experience Costs Public Actions Specialist Insurge nt standing & Skills Coalition GOVERNMENTGovt Capability Qual/Avail Support Adequacy Ability to Support of COIN Media Emp hasis for Conflict Elapsed Govt COIN COIN Appr Perceived Govt COIN Tool s Instit’l Provoke Conflict for Conflict Appropriate COINTrai ni n g COIN on Negativ e & Ti me of Under- MILITARY – Inform al Excessive Appr Public COIN COIN Costs Public Actions Specialist Insurge nt Sensational UnderstaCOALITION nding Conflict standing & Military to Learni ng COIN Response Support Adequacy Skills Ability to Expect- Govt Comms Learni ng Media Emp hasis for Conflict Elapsed Govt COIN COIN Appr MEDIA and Expectati ons STR / OP & Adjust Unit Duratio n Tool s Instit’l Provoke Media ations Quality Bureaucr acy & & Adjust Military on Negativ e & Ti me of Under- MILITARY – Inform al Excessive Susceptibility Media PUBLIC Manpow er Organizati onal in Area Sensational Public COIN standing & Military to COIN COIN Sensation- Depth & Quality Fundi n g ApprUse Media Coverage UnderstaCOALITION nding Conflict Learni ng Response & RIP/TOA to Insur gent Delays and Expectati ons Expect- Govt Comms STR / OP & Adjust Learni ng alism Bias of Media Equip Dev Fundi ng of Forc e Media MEDIA Bureaucr acy & Unit Duratio n Message Quality Media PUBLIC ations Manpow er Quality & Adjust in Area Military Quality & Availability Coverag e Adequacy Manpow er Adequacy Proactive COIN Local Susceptibility Sensation- Depth & Quality Fundi n g Organizati onal ApprUse per to Insur gent Delays & RIP/TOA of COIN Messa ge Logistics Ops & Timeliness ApprMen tality Knowledge alism Bias of Media Equip Dev Fundi ng Quality of Forc e Perceived Inform ation Population Coalition Population Message Quality & Availability Coverag e Adequacy Manpow er Adequacy Proactive COIN Local Qual/Avail of Effectiveness & Focus Ops of COIN Messa ge per Knowledge Military Adequacy Inform ation Logistics Ops & Timeliness ApprMen tality Use of Fo rce Insurge nt Iraqi Cent ral Effectiveness Data Perceived Qual/Avail of Population Effectiveness & Focus Perceived Intel Military Ops Adequacy Message Govern ment Expected Insurge nt Effectiveness Political Satisfaction Analysis Situational Use of Fo rce Iraqi Cent ral Perceived Intel Effectiveness Benefits COIN Effective MILITARY - Stress Message Govern ment Political Expected Situational Fairness with Infrastr uctur e & Ops Satisfaction Analysis and Cre dibility to Daily Life Econ Dev Ops Resource Effectiveness Fairness Benefits with Infrastr uctur e & COIN Effective MILITARY - Ops Stress Daily Life Effective- and Cre dibility to Daily Life Resource Effectiveness Allocation Daily Life Econ Dev Ops Effective- Perceived Hope for ness Hope for Effectiveness Allocation ness Relative Self & Ops Focus TACTICAL Relative Perceived & Ops Focus Effectiveness Religious & Avg COIN Insurgent Sympathizers Religious & Self TACTICAL Governe d Effectiveness Avg COIN Ideological Appropriate Quality & Governe d Appropriate of Insur gent IRAQI Futur e Emphasis Capability of Insur gent IRAQI Ideological Capability Quality & Compatibility Inter- Volume of Compatibility Futur e Emphasis Inter- Volume of Message on per S oldie r Message on on Civilian per S oldie r on Civilian person al Actionable CiviliansGOVERNMENT LOCAL person al Actionable CiviliansGOVERNMENTLocal Govt/ LOCAL Interacti on Perceptions Civilian Local Govt/ Interacti on Perceptions Behavior Intel Civilian Behavior Intel Police/Military Relative Opport unity/ & Relationships Police/Military Relative Opport unity/ & Relationships Participation Consistency Military to Participation Military to in Central Dev Ops Attractive- Civilian in Central Dev Ops Attractive- Consistency Civilian Govt Events EffectivenessCIVILIANS ness of Qual/Avail Trust Govt Events EffectivenessCIVILIANS ness of Trust Qual/Avail Empower- Ability to Vet Visible Benefits Insurge nt of Local I nfo Ability to Vet of Local I nfo Relig/Trib/ Path Collected Empower- Visible Benefits Insurge nt ment of to Daily Life Civilian Positive Local Relig/Trib/ Path Collected Progressive Polit/Milit Civilian Presence Targ eted ment of to Daily Life Civilian Positive Local Leade rs Willingness Insurge nt Civilian Military Polit/Milit Civilian Targ eted (signals) Local Le aders Ops Offensive Ops Progressive Presence to Inter act Interacti ons Civilian Leade rs Willingness Insurge nt Civilian Military Symp- Fractio n Effectiveness Ability to Effectiveness Offensive Ops athizer Contacts Local Le aders to Inter act Interacti ons Ops Civilian Local Govt Survive Symp- Effectiveness Ability to Effectiveness Fractio n Insurge nt Civilian Fractio n Contacts Coalition Forces Developme nt Prox- athizer Survive Attack & Local Govt Fractio n Civilian Credibility & Consistency Ability to ID imity Insurge nt Effectiveness Effective Use Perception of Military Retaliate Developme nt Prox- Indigenous Government of Existing ISF IP of Coalition Insurge nts & Attack & Credibility & Consistency Govt/Police/ Manpow er Security & Intentions & Activity/ Military Prevent Effective Use Ability to ID imity Personality Attacks Effectiveness Perception of Military Retaliate Milit Capab Effectiveness Perceived Commitment Guardin g Exposure to of Existing ISF IP of Coalition Insurge nts & Stability Coalition Activity/ & Credibility Insurge nt Ability Ops Insurge nt Casualties Govt/Police/ Manpow er Security & Intentions & Military Prevent to Oper ate Attack Personality Insurge nt Effective- Milit Capab Effectiveness Perceived Commitment Exposure to Attacks Infrastr uctur e in Area ness Guardin g Coalition Economy IRAQI POLICE/ Recruiting & Credibility Stability Insurge nt Ability Insurge nt & Retention Civilian Ops Casualties Tri bal & Employment to Oper ate Attack Religious MILITARY Hard Core Insurge nt Insurge nt Casualties Insurge nt Effective- & Damages Infrastr uctur e in Area Tension Contracto r Insurge nt Insurge nts Learni ng Material Insurge nt IRAQI POLICE/ Recruiting ness Adequacy Fear of Manpow er & Support Attacks Economy in Area Employment & Retention Civilian Insurge nt Leade rship on Military Tri bal & Casualties Repercussio n Religious MILITARY Hard Core Insurge nt Insurge nt from Insurge nt & Damages Insurge nt Contracto r Insurge nt Insurge nts Learni ng Material Insurge nt Targ eted Capability Tension Adequacy Thre ats & Fear of Manpow er & in Area Support Attacks Local Civilians Insurge nt on Military Attacks on Leade rship Repercussio n Iraqis INSURGENTS Insurge nt Insurge nt Insurge nt Casualties Targ eted Capability and Capt ures Thre ats & Attacks on Iraqis INSURGENTS Insurgent Forces Infrastructure Insurge nt WORKING HYPOTHESIS Casualties and Capt ures multiple © PA Knowledge Limite d 200 6. All rights reserv ed. – 10/1 8/200 6 WORKING HYPOTHESIS sources International Diplomacy © PA Knowledge Limite d 200 6. All rights reserv ed. – 10/1 8/200 6 Descriptive model Correlative/predictive model EXplanatory model Judgement, value, (symbols, syntaX) (rules, processes, (abstractions, insight, instinct, semantics) theories, etc) principles, etc Distribution Statement “A” (Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited) 3 EXamples of Data-to-Wisdom Information Knowledge Understanding Wisdom Task Determine facts